Thursday, January 08, 2009

Previewing Clemson

2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan / 2008 Scouting Report
2009 Schedule / 2009 Stats
2009 Roster

Clemson Offense 07-08
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate19.8101
Off Reb Rate39.49
Clemson Offense 08-09
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate19.8109
Off Reb Rate39.926

Clemson's offense hasn't had a problem moving on without Cliff Hammonds and James Mays. Hammonds was an efficient scorer but the Tigers didn't lean on him for a lot of production (he took a modest 17.5% of the shots). Mays, meanwhile, was a valuable contributor at the defensive end but shot poorly and turned the ball over a lot at the offensive end; his offensive contributions are easily replaced and surpassed by Trevor Booker, who is now the go-to guy in the post.

Forwards* %Min %Shots 2FG%

Mays 56.9 20.8 50.0
Booker 65.2 19.1 56.8
Potter 38.7 17.5 46.1
Sykes 35.5 15.1 57.3

Forwards* %Min %Shots 2FG%

Booker 70.4 22.7 59.2
Sykes 54.8 19.2 60.0
Potter 47.9 15.1 44.4
Grant 35.5 12.5 81.6
(*Minimum 30% minutes played.)

A more efficient allocation of two-point attempts to the forwards who do the best job making them has helped the Tigers improve their 2FG% from 49.7% in '08 to 55.1% this season, but their weak schedule is partially responsible as well.


Demontez Stitt (6-2, 175) -- Not a lot went right for Stitt as a freshman last year--he turned the ball over often while combining poor shooting with too-frequent shooting. But he did a good job getting himself to the line, where he shot better than 76%. Looking at that FT%, if was a fair bet his outside shooting would come around, and it has (slightly). (Though his FT% is under 66% so far; maybe he doesn't have any touch after all.)

In 2009, Stitt is taking a much more appropriate 15% of the shots, down from 19.5%, and his efficiency has gone up with the decrease in workload. He continues to maintain an excellent FT rate--in fact, his is the highest among the starting five--but turnovers remain a problem.

Terrence Oglesby (6-2, 190) -- In 1+ seasons, Oglesby is averaging 12.4 3FGA/40min while hitting 40.8% of them. Scary outside shooter man. DO NOT WANT.

KC Rivers (6-5, 215) -- It's astounding how well he takes care of the ball year after year:
Rivers  TO% (Rk)
2007 11.6 (40)
2008 9.9 (17)
2009 8.1 (12)
How's he do that?

Trevor Booker (6-7, 240) -- Booker always seemed like a guy who could handle an above-average workload, and he's proving it this season. His TO% is down and his FT% up, two improvements he may not be able to maintain going forward. But he's always been a high-percentage scorer in the post, a good rebounder at both ends, and a great shot-blocker.

Raymond Sykes (6-9, 220) -- Best used in small doses since he turns the ball over a lot and is just not a skilled offensive player in general.


Jerai Grant (6-8, 220), David Potter (6-6, 205), Andre Young (5-9, 160), and Tanner Smith (6-5, 205) should all see time. None of them are likely to make anything but occasional contributions at the offensive end.

[Update: Quick addendum:
Young 11.6
Smith 9.0
Occasional is definitely not the right word to describe their contributions. Thanks for the correction, Tigers fans.]

But enough of that; there's anagrams to get to. Clemson might be the most anagramically awesome team in the ACC. For example:

Terrence Oglesby: Beer Gone, Let's Cry.

Demontez Stitt: Ditz To Test Men. Every Friday night, man.

Raymond Sykes: Yaks Syndrome. (Pray your cat does not get this.)

Andre Young: Ray Dungeon. When I think of Ray Dungeon, I think of a cross between Indiana Jones and Max Power. Dynamic, isn't it? Unassuming college student by day, swashbucklin', treasure-huntin', power-couplin' hero by night. If Andre Young doesn't use this alias when he checks into hotels, I'll be very disappointed.

Karolis Petrukonis: A Porkier Slut Oinks. I mean, this anagram right here...I'm awed.

Clemson Defense 07-08
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate24.327
Off Reb Rate35.5276
Clemson Defense 08-09
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate25.819
Off Reb Rate36.7267

In our first game against Clemson last year, we turned the ball over almost 37% of the time; in the second meeting, about 24%. Is there any reason to expect us to avoid death by turnover margin this time around? Alas, no.

Pomeroy Predictor likes the Tigers by 14.