Brent Sutter has an inherent understanding of win probability.
Well, maybe not, but I'd never seen this before:
Already trailing by three by the time his club was awarded its first power play of the evening, head coach Brent Sutter got creative. He pulled goaltender Scott Clemmensen in favor of an extra skater, and the move paid off.
Carolina forward Justin Williams was slapped with a roughing call following a scrum in front of Hurricanes' netminder Cam Ward at 11:18, and Sutter brought Clemmensen to the bench with under eight minutes left in regulation.
The Devils capitalized on the improvised 6-on-4 advantage when Martin took Patrik Elias' cross-slot pass at the left dot to break up the shutout at 12:12. Martin's third of the season was his first goal in 20 games.
The Canes were called for another penalty shortly after that goal, and Sutter pulled the goalie again; didn't work the second time, and the Hurricanes got a couple of long-distance shots at the empty net that missed. Sutter won't always be so lucky with this strategy--that's if he ever does it again--but it strikes me as the kind of smart aggression that we should see more often in this situation--past the 10:00 mark in the 3rd, late in the game but not at the obvious goalie-pulling point, down multiple goals, on the power play. In terms of win probability, I suspect the potential gains are worth far more than the potential losses.
As Sutter said, "what'd we have to lose?" Marginally speaking, very little. Go from down three to down four--big deal. But get one back, as they did, and you've closed the gap and still have a good amount of time (in this case, almost eight minutes) to work with.