Previewing Florida

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2009 Roster

Florida Offense 07-08

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	55.3	10
Turnover Rate	18.4	36
Off Reb Rate	35.3	80
FTM/FGA	21.9	268

Florida Offense 08-09

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	55.7	13
Turnover Rate	18.1	39
Off Reb Rate	37.2	63
FTM/FGA	20.9	265

Last season, Florida was the second-youngest team in I-A, and they're among the youngest again in '09--there are only two upperclassmen in Billy Donovan's rotation. Considering all the new pieces that Donovan has had to integrate in these post-title years, it's impressive that the Gators have hardly missed a beat offensively. They finished 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency in 2008 and they're currently 9th this season.

Outside of Duke and Carolina, this might be the best offense we see all season, with the sort of good shooting/ball security combination that is very bad news for NC State. The Pack's defense forces a turnover just 15.9 percent of the time (which ranks 339th nationally), and we can't even force mistake-prone teams to make mistakes. Give a team that shoots this well the luxury of not having to worry about any sort of disruption from the opposition and, well... we are really screwed. (Jinx jinx jinx jinx.)

Starters:

Nick Calathes (6-6, 194) -- His usage is down a bit this year, which may be partially responsible for the increase in his shooting percentages. His assist-to-turnover ratio is better than 2:1, and his assist rate ranks 24th. He is excellent at drawing fouls, which is a big part of his game.

Walter Hodge (6-0, 170) -- More one-dimensional in terms of shot selection than he was last season; he's a low-usage three-point specialist, and a very good one. The lone senior on the roster.

Dan Werner (6-8, 230) -- Here is what you should not do: do not think about where we might be right now had Dan Werner and Chris Wright stuck with us. Werner, like Wright, has developed into a solid contributor on a good team. His shots are split about 50-50 between twos and threes, though he's never shown any touch from outside prior to this season. He is, however, quite good from inside the arc, much like the Gators in general. Since he's so frequently looking to score from the perimeter, he doesn't get to the line very often.

Chandler Parsons (6-9, 213) -- Another inside/outside guy. He should maybe cut back on the three-point attempts: after shooting 32.4% from outside last season, he's at 31.3% so far this year.

Alex Tyus (6-8, 220) -- Tyus is doing his best to ease the pain caused by the departure of Marreese Speights; in fact, as far as impressions go, this is a pretty good one:

                %Shots   eFG%     OR%     DR%   FTRate    TO%   %Blks
Speights ('08)   27.1    62.4    12.8    26.4    37.6    15.9    5.9
Tyus ('09)       24.5    64.8    13.2    18.4    32.4    11.1    4.0

He's not the dominant rebounder Speights was, nor is his offensive workload as large, but he is making an admirable go of living up to a difficult standard. It'll be interesting to see how he holds up in SEC play.

Bench:

Erving Walker (5-8, 161), Ray Shipman (6-5, 212), Allan Chaney (6-8, 231), and Kenny Kadji (6-10, 245), all of whom are freshmen, round out the rotation.

Walker is the sixth man and takes an average proportion of the shots, most of them threes. There are lots of three-point threats on this team, and Walker certainly qualifies.

Chaney and Kadji give the Gators a couple more big bodies they can hurl at us when necessary; both are good offensive rebounders.

Florida Defense 07-08

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	50.1	177
Turnover Rate	19.5	246
Off Reb Rate	29.3	37
FTA/FGA	29.1	41

Florida Defense 08-09

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	48.3	145
Turnover Rate	24.3	44
Off Reb Rate	33.6	173
FTA/FGA	28.0	37

While Florida's offense survived the post-championship turnover, the same can't be said for its defense. Their FG% defense took a major nose dive last season, both inside and out. In conference play, the Gators allowed 1.1 points per possession, which was the third-worst mark in the league.

Their defensive rebounding is down in '09--this was a near-inevitability once Speights went pro--which would be a huge cause for concern were they not compensating with takeaways. As it stands, their defensive rebounding is worrisome but not crippling. (Yet.) That TO rate looks like a pretty significant key for them going forward.

Pomeroy's Predictor says our defense provides little resistance for the Gators, who breeze to 75 points in 63 possessions and win by 11.