That makes the Huskies 19.7 points better than the Wolfpack per 100 possessions. Assuming the game Saturday has 72 possessions (right at each team's average pace), the Huskies will be 14 points better. I don't have enough data for the Predict-O-Meter to give me a score, but expect 14 to be the margin of victory for UConn. How far can intangibles carry you? I guess we're about to find out.
The Huskies have a balanced offense: all five starters average double-digit points, and four of five average between 14-16 field goal attempts per forty minutes.
Starters:
Renee Montgomery (5-7) -- UConn's leading scorer and point guard. She's not the primary option--she just gets more minutes than the other major contributors, hence the higher PPG. Averages nearly 6 assists/40 minutes and has a 1.7 A:T ratio.
Mel Thomas (5-9) -- Low-usage long range bomber, and a very good one at that. She's 84-198 (.424) from behind the arc this season.
Kalana Greene (5-10) -- Good rebounder for her size, she scores efficiently on twos and won't turn the ball over often. Charde Houston (6-1) -- Hitting 55% of her shots, but a propensity for turnovers hurts her overall efficiency.
Tina Charles (6-4) -- Just a freshman and already a big time player. She shoots 60%, rebounds extraordinarily well at both ends of the court, is prone to neither turnovers nor fouls, and blocks a lot of shots. Her per-40-minute averages: 22.7 pts, 15 rebounds, 4.1 blocks. Charles, rightfully, is UConn's primary scoring option.
Bench:
FREE BRITTANY HUNTER (6-3)!!! I beseech not Geno Auriemma, but the basketball gods, who've apparently seen fit to curse Brittany with a chronic knee problem. When she has been able to play this season (not often: 209 minutes), she's been awesome.
There is a certain amount of comfort that comes with playing West Virginia, comfort that is derived from this fact: the Mountaineers suck at rebounding just as much as we do. It's like finding a familiar face in a foreign town. "Boy am I glad to see you!"
Those other teams, they're tough. But not you, sweet, sweet West Virginia. Not you. You kindly offer opponents their missed shots while keeping none of your own for yourself.
When we played WVU back in early December, we had one of our best offensive rebounding performances of the season, grabbing 37% of our misses. Mountaineer opponents have posted an OR% over 40.0 eleven times this season (Wolfpack opponents have done it seven times). West Virginia has at least managed some improvement at the offensive end, upping its OR% from 21.3% to 30.4% this season. That's still terrible, but it's a step up from inept (and it's better than our OR%).
With the two teams shooting and rebounding about the same in the first meeting, turnovers meant the difference. NC State turned the ball over 17 times (nine of those were Gavin's) while WVU gave it away seven times. As I wrote prior to the game:
That turnover rate sure is an eye-opener. On the season, WVU opponents are averaging 23 turnovers per game; WVU, on the other hand, averages 11. That's a massive advantage, particularly in the low-possession games that West Virginia likes to play. They won't continue to force turnovers at their current pace--that's ridiculous--but last year's TO% shows that their ability to force a lot of mistakes is no early-season fluke. This is a huge key to the game. WVU's FG% defense is nothing special, and neither is its defensive rebounding. You take care of the ball against the Mountaineers and you're liable to have a nice day at the offensive end because you're forcing them to stop you with their weaknesses.
The numbers have changed since then (WVU's turnover advantage now stands at +5 per game), but the larger point remains applicable to Tuesday. Their 2FG% defense is atrocious (we hit 59.4% of our twos against them) and they give up numerous second opportunities--but you gotta hang onto the ball in order to take advantage of those defensive weaknesses. Our ability to protect the basketball is important not just because of the opportunities it presents us offensively, but also because we know the Mountaineers aren't going to give it away much themselves. They leverage turnover margin better than anybody; if you don't allow them to do that, you give yourself a great chance to beat them.
Now that we've had a chance to see and play against their 1-3-1 defense, and now that Atsur is back on the court, we should expect to see a lower turnover rate. A few notes:
-- With both teams in the top fifteen nationally in eFG%, the game has the potential to be an entertaining shootout. To the extent that a 60 possession game can be a shootout.
-- John Beilein has started the same five guys in every game. Seven West Virginia players average double digit minutes.
-- Darris Nichols has a 3.7:1 (!) assist-to-turnover ratio. Alex Ruoff's is 2.4:1.
-- Seven-footer Rob Summers rarely shoots, but when he does, he's money: 68.1% on twos.
Off_Eff Def_Eff Margin Last Six (6-0) 113.5 96.5 +17.0 Prev Nine (3-6) 100.1 103.9 -3.8
This is a turnaround akin to what North Carolina did in the second half of last season. In my original preview of Maryland, I was pretty harsh on the Terps' offense; at the time, they ranked 11th in the league in offensive efficiency. On the strength of just the last six games, they're up to 6th in the ACC.
They've scored at least 1.10 pts/poss in five straight games, and that includes two games against the best defenses in the conference (Duke and Carolina). They've shot 50% (eFG) or better in every game during the streak and they've also managed to cut down on turnovers.
I'd posted numbers for the Maryland starters to emphasize their offensive struggles; four of the five had offensive ratings below 100. Now take a gander at what they've done during the winning streak:
DJ Strawberry has been unbelievably good. Prior to the streak, he was taking an average proportion of shots (20%), but he's asserted himself since then, upping that proportion to 25%. And check out that turnover rate: he has a grand total of four turnovers in the last six games. Everyone except Ibekwe is shooting the ball better.
It's good to be the point guard when everybody's making shots. Last six games:
The assist numbers are similar; the difference between the two is in the scoring department, and it is vast. Hayes has turned the ball over a bunch, and he's about the only Terp not enjoying an offensive renaissance lately (26.2 eFG% during streak--yowza!).
So can Maryland sustain all this for the rest of the regular and post-season? I doubt it. Wait until after the ACC tournament and re-assess, because who knows, maybe they really are clicking on a whole different level offensively, but I'd be careful with this team in your bracket. I just can't see them keeping up the torrid shooting.
-- With memory of the Ralph Mims Incident still fresh, I'm adopting a strict mock-free diet for this post. No jokes at the other team's expense, no kidding about certain individuals' poor numbers. Probably. This is harder than quitting smoking (not that I would know about that; hi, Mom!). The timing couldn't be worse, either.
-- The Deacons have the least efficient offense in the ACC, and by a comfortable margin, which you can see illustrated in Big Ten Wonk's handy visual aid. What makes them so bad? In addition to being the most turnover prone team in the conference, the Deacs are also 11th in eFG% and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage. Can't shoot, can't grab your misses--this is a problem better known as Chronic Brick Fatigue Syndrome.
In seven conference road games, the offense has been nothing short of terrible: 0.89 points/possession, including a delightful 0.62 pts/poss effort in Durham.
What I'm not going to tell you for fear of the consequences is that Wake Forest hasn't managed to score better than a point per possession in any road conference game this season. I'm definitely not pointing that out.
-- Fellas, we're gonna hafta have a chat. In conference games:
This isn't the Anthony Gurley Show. Maybe if you passed a little more often you'd be getting more than 15 minutes a game.
-- Ishmael Smith is 30-70 (.429) from the line this season, 8-23 (.348) in conference play--his field goal percentage is higher than those numbers.
Smith continues his trial by fire in ACC play, and it hasn't been easy for him:
ORtg eFG% PPWS TO% 78.1 41.2 0.83 32.2
Lots of turnovers, but he's feeding his teammates a lot, too. He maintains an assist rate that's among the best in the nation and better than any other ACC point guard's.
-- Pomeroy has the Wolfpack winning 79-73, I've got 77-75.
North Carolina's typically tough field goal percentage defense was no where to be seen, as the Wolfpack made 64.3% of its twos and 53.3% of its threes en route to a stunning upset win. Courtney Fells scored 21 points on 8-11 shooting, Ben McCauley didn't miss a shot from the field, and Engin Atsur added 10 assists.
In addition to shooting well, NC State rebounded far better than could have been reasonably expected. From my recap:
Rebounding in ACC games:
OR% DR%
NCSU Avg 25.3 62.6 vs. UNC 33.3 68.6
Getting the better of such a great rebounding team (the Heels are probably the best rebounding team we'll see all year) is no small potatoes. Carolina came into Saturday grabbing about 41% of their misses in conference play but only managed to grab 31.4% against the Pack. And with them not turning the ball over much, limiting their second opportunities was obviously a key to victory.
And it will be again.
What's been goin' on with UNC in the mean time?
The Heels have played four game since our first meeting, winning three times. They struggled with their outside shooting over that span (19-61, 31.1%), though, and their in-conference 3FG% ranks 9th in the league. The Tar Heels with 10+ three point attempts in ACC play:
3FGM-3FGA 3FG%
Wayne Ellington 17-56 30.2 Ty Lawson 14-31 45.2 Reyshawn Terry 14-31 45.2 Danny Green 10-31 32.3 Wes Miller 9-26 34.6 Bobby Frasor 1-10 10.0
Lawson and Terry have been deadly, while the rest reside in meh territory. It's a minor weakness since the Heels don't rely on the three very much, but it's hopefully something we can take advantage of.
How the hell do you beat Carolina in the Dean Dome?
You've simply got to catch them on an off night (the Heels shot 42.3% and scored 1.01 pts/poss in the loss to Virginia Tech), and even then nothing is assured because the Tar Heels play such excellent defense.
Best home defenses in conference play:
Def_Eff
1.) UNC 88.0 2.) Duke 94.1 3.) UMd 95.7 4.) Va Tech 98.6 5.) Ga Tech 98.7
And for good measure, the best home offenses in conference play...
In today's N&O, Chip Alexander offers up a few things NC State needs to do in order to beat Carolina, but didn't touch on rebounding. In conference home games, the Tar Heels have grabbed 40% of their misses and 72.1% of their opponents' misses. They've dominated the rebounding at both ends and they've done it against some quality rebounding teams like Virginia and Georgia Tech. We have to match that energy. A big factor in Virginia Tech's upset in Chapel Hill was its ability to be competitive on the boards. The rebounding was basically even, and most importantly, the Heels were held to a low offensive rebounding percentage. The Hokies matched Carolina in second chance points, 13-13.
You need only glance at the respective GamePlans to see that defensive rebounding is vital for us. Look at the relationships between OR% and UNC's offensive efficiency, and between opponent OR% and NC State's defensive efficiency.
What else did Virginia Tech do? Protected the ball, for one thing: they committed 10 turnovers in the game, a 12.7% turnover rate. They got to the line a lot, which helped them offset a tough night from the field. They limited the pace: the game had 70-ish possessions in regulation, and that is right where we're gonna want to be.
From the N&O article:
Some wondered why the Heels didn't apply more fullcourt pressure against State, which has had some ball-handling adventures.
"We didn't do a good job of it," Williams said. "We allowed State to set the pace of the game."
Carolina had 10 fast-break points, a pittance for a team that likes to stay on fast forward and can be lethal in transition.
"We took our time and did a pretty nice job of keeping control of the tempo of the game," NCSU coach Sidney Lowe said. "The key was we were very patient on the offensive end, took what was there and obviously were able to knock down some shots."
In addition to being patient, we'll also need to do a better job avoiding turnovers this time. We turned it over on 30% of our possessions in Raleigh and had a -10 turnover margin. Under normal circumstances, you can't give an extra ten possessions to Carolina and survive. In the Game Plan, you can see that opponent TO% correlates strongly with UNC's defensive efficiency.
Score Predictor says Carolina 89-70 in a game with 75 possessions. Pomeroy's got 91-66.
The normal association that goes with "up tempo," at least for me, is "fun to watch," but Gary Williams's team proves that effectiveness is far more important than pace when it comes to aesthetic apeal. Maryland is again one of the 10-15 fastest teams in the country this season, and is, again, one of the most painful teams in the conference to watch. They eschew the three-pointer in favor of a plodding, whistle-heavy, lane-clogging style that is neither attractive nor effective.
They had the ACC's worst offense in conference play last season (96.4 pts/100 poss on dreadful 45.7% shooting) and they're 11th this season (100.4, 48.7%). Their starters in conference games this year:
Aside from James Gist, who has been very good, the numbers are dreadful. If anyone's seen DJ Strawberry's jumpshot, let him know...I'm sure he's looking for it. One thing I applaud the Terps for: they understand that Gist is their most productive player and allow him to take more shots than anyone else.
Starters:
Greivis Vasquez (6-5, 195) -- Sometimes I think he shoots too much, but then I look at the above table and think, "okay, but who'd you prefer take them?" Vasquez is one of the team's few outside shooters, and I don't think they'd want Jones taking any more threes than he already is. Vasquez's assist rate is a modest 19.9% in ACC games, but this is mainly because he splits the PG role with Strawberry and Eric Hayes. Let me say also that I'm disappointed people aren't taking advantage of the pun opportunities offered by Vasquez's first name. "And Vasquez throws it away..." "A grievous error indeed, Jim."
Mike Jones (6-5, 204) -- 41.7% on threes for the year, but only 32.7% in conference games.
DJ Strawberry (6-5, 201) -- As mentioned, the shooting hasn't been there, but he distributes the ball without committing too many turnovers and he has a lot of value at the defensive end.
Ekene Ibekwe (6-9, 220) -- Turning the ball over a ton: you might could live with his 26.6 TO% in conference play if he were, say, the point guard. And if he happened to be the team's primary scoring option and a high-usage player, it might be understandable. But he obviously isn't those things. What he does do well: get to the free throw line, rebound the ball at both ends, block shots.
James Gist (6-8, 223) -- After posting effective field goal percentages around 49.0 in his first two seasons, he's at 55.3% this year, and that's made a big difference for the Terps. He is Maryland's most productive scorer in conference play, averaging 15 PPG and 20.4 pts/40 min. Solid rebounder at both ends and a good shot blocker.
Bench:
Bambale Osby (6-8, 250), Eric Hayes (6-3, 175), Parrish Brown (6-1, 175), Will Bowers (7-1, 262) should all see some time, with Hayes playing the most. In conference games, Hayes sports a better assist-to-turnover ratio (1.8) than either Vasquez or Strawberry.
In ACC games Osby has, for whatever reason, become more active at the offensive end; if anything, though, he should be taking fewer shots now that the competition is tougher...
FGA/40min eFG%
Non-Conf 10.4 63.0 In-Conf 13.8 44.4
That 44.4% shooting in conference play comes with a turnover rate of 24.3%. Yikes. I love me some Will Bowers because he looks allergic to both weightlifting and shaving. I'm not sure the Christ-this-hangover-is-killing-me look really works on the basketball court, though it is fitting when you consider that he also plays like he's hungover. He's the foulin'-est, turnoverin'-est tall dude you ever gon' see.
Maryland Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
43.1
6
Turnover Rate
23.8
52
Off Reb Rate
37.0
299
FTA/FGA
31.3
75
Defensive rebounding has been a huge issue for the Terps, which is strange because it wasn't a problem in 2006 and there hasn't been much change to the roster. Did Travis Garrison make that big a difference?
The problem is even bigger in conference games: opponents are grabbing 41.2% of their misses. Two opponents (FSU, UVA) have managed to grab more than half of their misses against the Terps.
Still, the Terps have an excellent overall defense. They rank 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and only three ACC teams have a better defensive efficiency in conference games. The primary reason is FG% defense, and they also force a lot of turnovers.
If you look in the scouting report, you can see that opponents are struggling to shoot from both inside and outside. Maryland has no shortage of big guards, and its post players are very good shot blockers; that's a nice combination.
Predict-O-Meter has Maryland 81-71, but I expect it to be closer than that. The Terps haven't been a good road team for a while now.
Last year it was Lethal Weapon 3. This year it's, what, The Lone Gunman? Anthony Harris no longer has Robert Hite and Guillermo Diaz by his side, and his front court teammates have been dropping like flies. The latest casualty, Ray Hicks, joins Anthony King and Jimmy Graham on the sideline thanks to a suspension.
Despite all the turnover in personnel, Miami's offense hasn't taken a hit. Take a look at their 2006 and 2007 numbers--almost identical.
The Hurricanes continue to maintain a guard-oriented attack, with Jack McClinton playing the (very) poor man's Guillermo Diaz. They don't shoot well, but they protect the basketball and they're pretty good on the offensive glass even with a bunch of forwards missing in action. They've struggled to score on the road in conference play, but they've more than held their own at home--they have the fourth-best home offense in the ACC (112.9 pts/100 poss).
Probable Starters:
Denis Clemente (6-0, 178) -- Splits the point guard duties with Anthony Harris; in conference play Clemente is fourth on the team in both field goal attempts and scoring. His shooting has improved across the board, and after shooting 38.5% in 2006, he's hitting better than 50% this year.
Anthony Harris (6-2, 187) -- Good ol' Anthony Harris. He remains as high-usage and inefficient as always. He's hitting just 27.4% (20-73) of his threes in 2007, resulting in an ugly 44.2 effective FG%. If this is the last time we see you, Tony, farewell. We'll miss you.
Jack McClinton (6-1, 185) -- McClinton, a transfer from Siena, came right in and asserted himself as Miami's go-to guy, and while he did well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the ACC slate has exposed him: 41.0 eFG%, 0.93 PPWS. Shooting better from three (36.5%) than he is from two (27.7%). He sports a sub-100 offensive rating in ACC games and provides nothing aside from his inefficient scoring.
Brian Asbury (6-7, 214) -- Outta no where! Asbury played sparingly as a freshman in 2006 (8 min/g) and finished the year 11-55 (2-24 in conference games) from the field. In 2007, he is logging 30 min/g and ranks second on the team in FGAs and PPG. He takes threes as often as Harris and Clemente do but probably shouldn't. Not much of a rebounder.
Dwayne Collins (6-8, 232) -- Here's something odd: Collins has more offensive rebounds this season (75) than he does defensive rebounds (67). He is in fact a brilliant offensive rebounder--one of the best in the country. In that regard at least, he gives the Canes what they're missing with Anthony King injured. The Hurricanes might think about looking to Collins for scoring more often; his 51.5% in-conference eFG% (on 7 FGA/g) is tops among the starters.
Bench:
This is where it gets ugly.
James Dews (6-3, 198), Keaton Copeland (6-5, 245), Lawrence Gilbert (6-7, 201), Fabio Nass (6-11, 202)--a freshman, a senior walk-on, a freshman, and a juco transfer, respectively--are the reserves. Copeland may start on Saturday depending on how Frank Haith wants to match up. Copeland and Dews have been getting 10+ minutes in conference games, while the other two will play sparingly. Don't expect to see too many shots from any of them.
Copeland's conference-only stats suggest he's in way over his head, but he might just be distracted. Will he be the next forward to go down? He could be attacked by a shark. He could slip in the shower. He could draw the ire of the 7th Floor Crew. Or get trapped under a gas truck--that's the worst.
Raymond Hicks had been the Canes most productive bench player. What little scoring punch they had on the bench went bye bye when he got caught doing whatever he was doing. The starting five plus Hicks account for 90% of Miami's in-conference scoring.
Miami Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
53.8
297
Turnover Rate
20.6
217
Off Reb Rate
33.9
180
FTA/FGA
40.5
246
The real impact of the injuries/suspsensions has been felt here at the defensive end. This is where the loss of forwards is showing most clearly. Opponents' interior shooting:
2FG% Rank
2006 44.2 39 2007 50.6 225
This is fantastic news for NC State since the Pack is an excellent two-point shooting team (57.1% on the year). Their perimeter defense has been suspect from the moment they entered the ACC (in three conference games against the Canes, NC State is 36-69 (.522) from beyond the arc), and now it appears we're in position to kill them inside as well.
The Miami D's in-conference numbers are worse:
Miami Defense in ACC Games
Four Factors
Percent
Conf Rank
eFG%
57.2
12
Turnover Rate
18.3
9
Off Reb Rate
36.9
9
FTA/FGA
52.5
12
It amounts to a defense that allows 120.8 pts/100 poss, one that's not even in the same hemisphere as the 11th-worst defense in the ACC (this gap graphically represented here). Miami: where they play defense like the Washington Generals.
That 57.2% shooting by opponents breaks down to 54.1% on twos and 41.3% (!) on threes. At home, on the road, it doesn't matter. In eight of their ten conference games, opponents have had an offensive efficiency rating above 120, and four times broke 130. At one point, UM opponents shot 60% (eFG) or better in five consecutive games (Duke, BC, FSU, VT, UNC). That there is some stunningly poor defense.
Score Predictor says Pack 77-72 in a game with 67 possessions. Remember, their offense keeps them competitive at home...if you go into Saturday expecting an easy one, I think you'll end up disappointed.
This is a hard team to figure. Georgia Tech maintains an excellent efficiency margin--one that suggests the Jackets are the third-best team in the ACC and among the nation's top 20--but the results aren't there. They've got some good resume wins (Purdue, Memphis, Georgia, Duke, Florida State, Clemson) but they've also lost to the ACC's worst two teams in underwhelming fashion--Miami and Wake Forest scored at will on them.
Their offense does most of its damage inside the arc--they don't take many threes and they rank 13th nationally in 2FG%. They can overwhelm teams on the offensive glass (the Jackets grabbed almost 60% of their misses against Clemson).
Starters:
Javaris Crittenton (6-5, 198) -- Leads the team in field goal attempts and scoring in conference play, perhaps part of the reason why his assist rate isn't quite as high in league games.
Anthony Morrow (6-5, 210) -- After hitting 42.9% of his threes last season, he's hitting 39.4% in 2007. He's your standard one-dimensional three-point shooter guy: he won't rebound or dish the ball much, won't get to the free throw line. But he is the Jackets' most productive scorer on a per-minute basis in conference play (20.1 pts/40 min).
Thaddeus Young (6-8, 217) -- Proving himself to be a versatile, efficient scoring threat (he's shooting) 54% on twos, 38.8% on threes). Needs to work on the defensive rebounding, though.
Jeremis Smith (6-8, 236) -- Turning the ball over a lot in conference play (28.0 TO%) and hasn't been contributing much offense (5 FGA/G). Shooting 40.5% from the line (15-37) in ACC games and his rebounding percentages are way down as well.
Ra'Sean Dickey (6-10, 250) -- Dickey can be summed up by two statistical categories: field goal percentage and turnover percentage. He's been an efficient scorer his entire career...and he's also been frustratingly turnover-prone his entire career.
In ACC play this season, he's hitting 65.4% of his shots and turning the ball over 32% of the time (3 TOs per game, 4.6 per 40 minutes). For whatever reason, he's never been able to improve in this area--and as you can see he's actually gotten worse from season to season.
Bench:
Alade Aminu (6-10, 225), Zach Peacock (6-8, 235), Mario West (6-5, 210), D'Andre Bell (6-5, 210) are the reserves. Peacock and West should get about 20 minutes apiece, but neither is likely to do much scoring. Alade Aminu scored 10 points in 12 minutes against Clemson--his first appearance in a conference game this season. Mouhammad Faye (6-10, 208) is expected to miss the game because of illness.
Not lacking for height, are they?
Georgia Tech Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
48.7
117
Turnover Rate
23.9
59
Off Reb Rate
32.8
139
FTA/FGA
40.8
245
The overall numbers are solid, but in conference play the Jackets rank 10th in defensive efficiency. Conference foes have shot well against them, and their defensive rebounding hasn't been great.
Last season, Carolina's offense was hindered by a lot of turnovers, but that's not been a problem in 2007. The Heels are also shooting at a higher percentage and grabbing more offensive rebounds. It's frightening.
Is there any reason, short of an off day from the Heels, to think we can slow this offense down? No. What they do well offensively, we do poorly defensively. The good offensive rebounding teams we've played have generally had their way with us on the glass, and Carolina is as good as it gets in this area. They'll be hurling fresh players at us all afternoon (not one Tar Heel averages over 30 min/game), and we're going to wear down. In conference games, NC State's opponents are grabbing 39.4% of their misses.
The best way to slow the Heels would be to force them into a lot of giveaways, since that deprives them of field goal attempts and offensive rebounding opportunities. Unfortunately we have neither the personnel nor the inclination to pull this off.
Starters:
Ty Lawson (5-11, 193) -- Struggling with turnovers in conference play (his TO% is over 35.0; he's got just two more assists than turnovers), but he continues to display an impressive shooting touch and he has quick hands at the defensive end.
Wayne Ellington (6-4, 195) -- Shooting 41% from three on the season, 33% in conference play. He takes the highest proportion of the team's shots when he is on the court, and those attempts are split about 50/50 between twos and threes. Interestingly, in conference play, Ellington's assist rate (21.4%) is nearly as good as Lawson's (25.5%) Reyshawn Terry (6-8, 232) -- Terry turns the ball over a lot, and his shooting hasn't been there in ACC games. He rebounds well, though.
Brandan Wright (6-9, 205) -- How is it that they can have three freshmen who are this good? Doesn't seem fair. Wright is the best of the bunch: he scores efficiently, rebounds pretty well, doesn't turn the ball over too often, and blocks a lot of shots. The main chink in his armor right now is free throw shooting--he's hitting 55.3% (that's almost 10% lower than his FG%) on the year and only 44.1% (15-34) in conference games.
Tyler Hansbrough (6-9, 245) -- His field goal percentage is down a bit in 2007, but he is otherwise the same player he was last season. Much of his value comes from his ability to get to the line, which is exceptional. It's hard to avoid making a snide remark about officiating here.
Bench:
Roy Williams has such a glut of talent on his bench, it's ridiculous. It's almost a shame, because players like Danny Green (6-5, 210), who I really like, only get 15 minutes a game. In ACC games, Green is averaging 21.1 pts/40 min and 8.9 rebs/40 min; having that coming off the bench is one hell of a luxury. Tyler Hansbrough is the only Tar Heel averaging more pts/40 in conference play.
I want to talk about Quentin Thomas (6-3, 185), because although he doesn't play a lot, he is an assist machine when he is on the court. Thomas has logged 72 minutes in conference play and has 27 assists in that time--that's 15.0 assists/40 minutes! Ty Lawson only has 28 assists and he gets twice as much playing time. Thomas's in-conference assist rate is 49%, meaning he assists on one out of every two baskets his teammates make while he's on the court. Against Miami on Wednesday, he had 8 dimes in 11 minutes...that's absurd.
There is, however, the matter of turnovers, as Thomas is nearly as generous giving the ball to the opponent as he is giving it to teammates. His turnover rate in conference play is over 40%--just terrible. So it's an exciting ten minutes when he's out there, that is for sure.
Wes Miller's(5-11, 190) outside touch has abandoned him (28.1% from three this year), so he is essentially useless. I have no idea what justifies giving him 12 minutes a game. Must be that Selfless Senior Leader status (Frasor's injury may also have been a factor).
We'll be seeing Marcus Ginyard (6-5, 218), Alex Stepheson (6-9, 225), Deon Thompson (6-8, 245), and Bobby Frasor (6-3, 208) too.
UNC Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
44.7
23
Turnover Rate
22.1
147
Off Reb Rate
28.8
22
FTA/FGA
25.2
9
When we played Duke, the Blue Devils had the top-ranked defense in the country, but now it is the Tar Heels with that distinction. People don't talk about Carolina's defense that much (unless they're talking about how Roy is unhappy with their defensive effort), but it is fantastic.
How well we shoot on two-pointers will determine how effective we are at the offensive end. Duke's great defense held us to an off night from inside and we were never in the game. We don't have the three-point shooters to make up for a poor 2FG%, and we simply prefer not to take very many threes. If Carolina makes us similarly inefficient from inside (and the Heels interior D is every bit as good as Duke's), we're doomed. We're probably doomed regardless, but with our strong suit dispatched by our despicable foe, we're like even more doomed.
Predict-O-Meter says: there will be wincing. A lot of wincing.
Coming off a postseason-less 14-16 season, the Hokies have not only positioned themselves as an NCAA tournament-worthy team, they've also become legitimate contenders for the ACC title.
Entering this season, Virginia Tech was fairly easy to peg as a rebound candidate for a couple of reasons, and the league's media members illustrated as much when they picked the Hokies to finish sixth in the ACC. The Hokies were expected to improve largely because they were returning all of their important pieces, but there was another factor which made the Hokies almost certain to improve: they were ridiculously unlucky in 2006--and I'm not just talking about the bit of unpleasantness dealt them by Sean Dockery. Take a look in the 2006 scouting report at their luck factor--the Hokies were so unlucky that they finished five wins below expectation. Virginia Tech's 2007 makes a lot more sense when you consider that they were really a 19-11 team last year, not a 14-16 team.
Their misfortune was also evident when I examined expected win-loss records after last season. The Hokies finished their conference slate with a 4-12 mark, but their efficiency margin suggested they were in fact a 6-10 team. I wrote:
On the flip side, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest finished about two games worse than their expected records. Virginia Tech, in particular, is an interesting case. Last year, the Hokies were lucky: they had an expected conference record of 5-11 but managed 8-8. Note that, this year, their expected record was 6-10, yet they finished 4-12. So they may have actually been a better team this season, but they still finished four games worse than their 2005 mark.
Luck comes in many forms, some obvious, some not. In the case of the Hokies it was obvious at times, as they actually lost twice when leading as the buzzer sounded. They suffered one defeat by scoring a game-losing basket on their own hoop, and in another were felled by a successful halfcourt heave. Everyone of note is back for Tech, who should have higher than normal expectations for a team that won just four of 17 conference games.
The Hokies have put 2006's frustration behind them and have made a breakthrough in 2007. Both the offense and defense have improved, and in terms of efficiency margin, Virginia Tech has become one of the 20-25 best teams in the nation.
Offensively, the improvement has been mainly in two areas: field goal percentage and offensive rebounding. Tech has a 52.8 effective field goal percentage so far in 2007 (up from 49.6% last year). The difference is outside shooting:
2FG% 3FG%
2006 50.0 32.2 2007 50.8 39.2
In the offensive rebounding department, they've increased their OR% from 30.0 in 2006 to 34.1 this season. And as usual, the Hokies do not turn the ball over. Like, ever. Their TO% in conference games (17.3%) is tops in the league.
Probable Starters
Jamon Gordon (6-3, 215) -- One of the best thiefs in the country, and together with Dowdell forms a turnover-causing nightmare of a backcourt. Not something you want to deal with if you lack ballhandlers as we do.
Zabian Dowdell (6-3, 200) -- A big reason why Tech's offense has improved is because Dowdell has improved. He's shooting better from everywhere (from three, from two, from the line), his free throw and assist rates are up, and his turnover rate is down. He's averaging 21.7 PPG in ACC play. He has a total of nine turnovers in seven conference games.
Deron Washington (6-7, 205) -- Washington has an excellent free throw rate but is only hitting 57% of his freebies. Shoots well from two, not so much from three. He's had to be more involved offensively in 2007 and has stepped up and become a more efficient player.
Lewis Witcher (6-9, 220) -- He has started every conference game Tech has played, but he's only averaging 13 min/g and isn't a factor at the offensive end. Does offensive rebound well, though.
Coleman Collins (6-9, 240) -- Collins has taken a smaller role in the offense this season but he remains a solid contributor. He is the team's best overall rebounder, he gets to the line a lot, and he is a shot blocking threat.
Bench
AD Vassallo (6-6, 215) could easily start the game Wednesday, but if not, he'll be the first guy off the bench. He'll get 25 minutes regardless. Vassallo is a big factor in the offense when he's on the floor and he is shooting really well from three-point range (44.9% overall this season, 59.1% in ACC games). He and Dowdell are Tech's outside threats, although the Hokies don't take many threes.
The rest of the bench in anagram form:
Cheick Diakite: Kicked It...I Ache Markus Sailes: Muskier Salsa Nigel Munson: Sunning Mole Robert Krabbendam: Brand Marketer Bob Chris Tucker: Tick Crusher (he's fearsome!)
Virginia Tech Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
46.2
52
Turnover Rate
24.0
59
Off Reb Rate
34.6
208
FTA/FGA
37.1
183
The source of Virginia Tech's defensive improvement is field goal percentage defense. Defensive rebounding is an issue--conference foes are grabbing 36% of their own misses.
Predict-O-Meter: Tech 77, State 64 in a game with 68 possessions.
These are a lot easier the second time around. I'd recommend glancing at my preview of the first meeting, linked above. There's still pertinent info to be found there, plus its interesting to see how UVA's Four Factors have changed from then to now.
As luck would have it, we couldn't force many turnovers (and UVA didn't inflict many errors on itself), so the only way we could get stops was to rebound...which we didn't. Fifteen or sixteen UVA turnovers--and the extra 5-6 possessions we'd have gotten--could have proven the difference for us. Virginia grabbed 40% of the misses at their end of the court, and that saved the Cavs from having a truly terrible day offensively. An offensive efficiency of 101 is mediocre, but it probably should have been worse considering they shot an adjusted 42.4 percent.
Virginia had a terrible night from the field but managed to avoid the upset by protecting the ball (9 turnovers) and dominating the glass (40.0 OR%, 87.9 DR%). Reynolds and Singletary were relatively quiet, scoring 14 and 11 points respectively, on combined 8-23 shooting.
For NC State, Brandon Costner scored 17 points while shooting 65.4% (eFG); Fells, McCauley, and Grant all shot below 50%. Gavin had 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists but needed 16 FGAs to get his points. The box score is here.
I had mentioned in the preview of that game that our turnover rate would depend more on us than them because UVA's defense doesn't force turnovers. We avoided self-inflicted mistakes and turned the ball over just 10 times. Our turnover rate in the game (15.1%) is one of the lowest we've posted this season.
What's been goin' on with Virginia in the mean time?
When we first saw Virginia, it was so early in the season that we still had more questions than we did answers. On UVA's offense, I wrote:
[T]he real question is whether or not the Cavs can sustain better field goal shooting in 2007. As you can see, they were bricktastic in '06 (so it's a damn good thing they got better at grabbing their misses). They were similarly bad in '05.
[snip]
We know the Cavs are going to rebound. If they add improved shooting to that, they'll have an excellent offense rather than merely a mediocre one.
So how's that worked out for them? After shooting 46.9% in 2006, the Cavs are shooting 52.7% this year. They've improved their turnover and offensive rebounding rates as well, and the result is a much better offense--they rank 24th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. It helps that both Singletary and Reynolds have improved their shooting this season.
Whether or not they've found the third scoring option they need is debatable. Mamadi Diane is the only other player averaging 10+ pts/game and the only other player taking an above average proportion of the team's field goal attempts.
Back in December I thought maybe Jason Cain could improve his offense to the point where he became that third option. Hasn't happened, though. His shooting is a bit better than in 2006, but he turns the ball over far too often. He does continue to grab rebounds by the bushel.
When these two teams last met, I wondered, Where've you gone, Laurynas Mikalauskas? (Hey, I wonder these things.) He hadn't played much up to that point and only logged three minutes against the Wolfpack. This after a freshman season that saw him average 23 minutes per game and provide a solid contribution (56.8% shooting) in a small role.
It seems Dave Leitao has rediscovered Mikalauskas--he has started Virginia's last six games after starting none of the previous 11. He's averaging 22.5 min/g in those six starts; over the previous 11 games, he averaged a mere 9.7 min/g.
What else have we learned about this Virginia team?
They're considerably more perimeter-oriented than they have been in past seasons. Thirty-nine percent of their field goal attempts are three-pointers, a proportion that is the 60th-highest in the country. That proportion is up from 32.2% in 2006. Take a look at how the 3FGA/FGA ratios have changed for Virginia's shooters from last season to this one:
The Cavaliers are also considerably faster-paced in 2007; their games have about 6-7 more possessions than they did in 2006. When the Cavs met Maryland--another up-tempo team--earlier this January, the result was the fastest conference game of the season: 91 possessions. Nine Cavaliers have played in all of UVA's conference games, and eight of them average 10+ minutes per game.
Predict-O-Meter says: Virginia 84, NC State 78 in a game with 74 possessions. Ken Pomeroy's prediction, which takes home court into account (mine does not), has Virginia winning 82-80, also on 74 possessions. In other words: it's a toss up. Virginia does not play good defense, so we should expect a better offensive showing from the Pack.
It's not hard to see what's been holding their offense back. The Blue Devils' in-conference turnover rate is even worse: 25.6%. They'll be thrilled to see our no-turnover-forcin' team, I'm sure.
Probable Starters:
Greg Paulus (6-1, 180) -- I think he's surpassed Anthony Harris as my Favorite Inefficient Player On An Opposing Team (but you still my boy, Anthony). To Paulus's credit, though, he's dramatically improved on his outside shooting. And his in-conference turnover rate (28.9%), while still bad, is an improvement on his full-season TO rate (35.9%).
Jon Scheyer (6-5, 180) -- It's uncanny how Duke does this. Out with the old Annoying White Guy (Melchionni), in with the new, improved more-annoying-than-ever Annoying White Guy. Dear god, where will it end? He has already inspired a huge photoshop thread at Terp Town--here's a good one. In ACC play, Scheyer averages 16.4 points and 2.3 moths eaten per 40 minutes.
DeMarcus Nelson (6-4, 200) -- Leads Duke in the percentage of possessions used and percentage of shots taken while on the court. The Blue Devils are pretty balanced, but the player most resembling a "go-to guy" has been Nelson.
Lance Thomas (6-8, 215) -- Thomas starts more often than not, but he's only getting about 16 minutes per game and doesn't factor into the offense very often. He is averaging 5.1 turnovers per 40 minutes in conference play.
Josh McRoberts (6-10, 240) -- On the year, he's taking 21.7% of the team's shots while he is on the court. In Duke's four conference games, though, that figure is 18.2% and he's averaging an unimpressive 13.3 pts/40. He'll block shots and rebound well enough, but the Blue Devils could really use some added scoring.
Bench:
David McClure (6-6, 200), Gerald Henderson (6-4, 215), and Brian Zoubek (7-1, 250) round out the bench. McClure and Henderson should see about 20 minutes each.
In four conference games, McClure has seven field goal attempts. Henderson will be more involved offensively.
Duke Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
42.5
7
Turnover Rate
23.6
90
Off Reb Rate
29.5
30
FTA/FGA
25.9
14
This is currently the #1 ranked defense in the country--no team allows fewer points per possession. It's no illusion created by a soft schedule, either. The Blue Devils have faced a lot of excellent offenses and they have in most cases gotten the better of them. Only a few Duke opponents have managed to score over a point per possession against the Devils.
Team SeasonOE OEvsDuke
Air Force 123.2 100.2 Ga Tech 116.3 100.7 Georgetown 113.7 87.3 Indiana 112.6 79.8 Gonzaga 111.9 91.0
[OE = Offensive Efficiency]
All of those teams rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Assuming the pace of the Duke/State game is somewhere in the 60s, we'll be lucky to break 70 points.
I think this Duke team is one people are going to sleep on in March. When you watch them, nothing they do stands out as impressive, and they seem to be involved in a lot of ugly games. They're getting the job done with defense, and they're playing at a much slower pace than they did in 2006. Those qualities aren't good for the image. With the way they're able to neutralize great offenses, they can play with anyone. [/end tangent]
It's not quite the offensive rebounding juggernaut it was during the Eric Williams era, but Wake Forest continues to maintain a good offense. Like NC State, the Deacs take relatively few three pointers and are among the best two-point shooting teams in the country.
Probable Starters (Nine different Deacs have started a game this season, so bear with me...):
Ishmael Smith (5-11, 155) -- Smith is the Deacs' second-leading scorer, averages better than 9 assists per 40 minutes, and is among the nation's leaders in assist rate. His turnover rate (26.3%) is within what I consider an acceptable range for a point guard. He's shooting the ball well from the field but has only made 44.7% (21-47) of his free throws.
Harvey Hale (6-2, 186) -- Thrust into major playing time as a freshman last season, he struggled with his shooting and turned the ball over a lot. While his shooting still needs work, he has cut down on his turnovers in 2007. He takes a high proportion of the team's shots (25.2%) while he is on the court.
LD Williams (6-4, 210) -- Solid contributor, if not a major part of the offense. His workload looks to be right where it should be.
Jamie Skeen (6-8, 220) -- There is a lot to like about Skeen already. He scores efficiently, he has range, he gets to the line often, and he's grabbing a good number of offensive rebounds. Where he needs work: defensive rebounding, two-point shooting, protecting the basketball.
Kyle Visser (6-11, 255) -- One of the league's most improved players from last season to this one:
Even with a much larger workload, his shooting is way up, and he's halved his turnover rate. It remains to be seen how much of a toll conference play takes on his numbers, but through Wake's first three ACC games, Visser has a 115.5 offensive rating.
Bench:
Michael Drum (6-6, 204), Anthony Gurley (6-3, 185), and Shamaine Dukes (6-1, 175) are the main contributors off the bench, while David Weaver (6-10, 224), Kevin Swinton (6-7, 224), and Cameron Stanley (6-6, 214) will also get minutes.
Drum will be the sixth man if he isn't starting; he is a threat from outside (39.5% from three) and one of the few Deacs you do not want to send to the free throw line.
Gurley takes a bunch of shots--in fact, no Deacon takes a higher pecentage of the team's shots while on the court. He is seventh on the team in minutes played, third in field goal attempts.
Wake Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
52.5
255
Turnover Rate
21.6
190
Off Reb Rate
32.9
142
FTA/FGA
38.6
202
Wake has been lit up this season, both inside and out. They put opponents on the line often, but have been fortunate to have those opponents make just 64.3% of their free throw attempts.
Despite the problems, they're allowing fewer points per possession than we are. Yes, we've reached the point now where our defense is statistically worse than Wake's. For shame.
This game is close to a coin flip. Wake Forest has a slightly better defense and the home court advantage. NC State has a slightly better offense. Can we put forth the effort at the defensive end that we'll need to win? It's hard to be optimistic about that.
Pomeroy has Wake by five: 83-78. I've got Wake by a hair: 81-80.
Clemson's offense is a good bit better this season, thanks to both improved shooting and improved offensive rebounding. The Tigers are one of the most accurate teams in the country on two-point attempts, and while their outside shooting still isn't great, the two guys taking most of the threes are shooting them well (especially compared to what they did in 2006):
Ken Pomeroy introduced a new feature on his site today which he calls the Game Plan--here is Clemson's. On the page, you can see the Four Factors broken down for each game Clemson has played. Even cooler than that, though, are the correlations at the bottom.
Note the statistically significant correlation there in the first column next to offensive rebounding percentage. This indicates a strong positive relationship between Clemson's OR% and its offensive efficiency. Moreso than most teams, Clemson's success at the offensive end is tied to its offensive rebounding. Now take a look at the NC State Game Plan, make your way down to the "Opp OR%" row and note the rather large +0.50 correlation between that number and NC State's defensive efficiency. How the other team offensive rebounds is a major factor in our defensive efficiency. Which makes sense, of course--we don't force turnovers, so we only stop teams by forcing them to miss shots. That makes defensive rebounding particularly important.
All of which is a long-winded way of pointing out how vital defensive rebounding will be for NC State on Tuesday. I think if the Tigers grab 40% of their misses (and that's what they've been averaging) they win easily.
They've grabbed more than half their misses on four different occasions. Take a look (in the Game Plan) at what they did to poor Minnesota. By game's end, the Gophers were naught but roadkill.
Clemson Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
46.7
67
Turnover Rate
26.3
19
Off Reb Rate
30.5
57
FTA/FGA
24.4
10
Oliver Purnell's Tiger teams always play good defense, and they consistently force a lot of turnovers:
Season Opp TO%
2005 25.2 2006 26.1 2007 26.3
As if their offensive rebounding wasn't enough to worry about.
Against Clemson last year, we turned the ball over on 25.4% of our possessions. Clemson had a large edge in the turnover category, and that nearly cost us the game.
These guys are a terrible matchup for us--couple their ability to force turnovers and our inability to do the same and you have the makings of a big advantage. At least Gavin does not have to run the point against their quick-handed guards, because that would truly be a nightmare. It'll probably be ugly for us anyway.
Pomeroy has the Tigers winning by a score of 77-67. I'll take 79-66.
Though they've had to replace Craig Smith and Louis Hinnant, efficient scorers both, the Eagles haven't seen much drop off in offensive efficiency from last year to this one. So far. Sean Marshall and Jared Dudley are the main reasons for that, but Marquez Haynes and Sean Williams have also stepped up and become more efficient, and freshman forward Shamari Spears has acquitted himself well in his first season.
BC's offense retains the same characteristics that it had in 2006. The Eagles shoot well, offensive rebound well, and get to the free throw line a lot.
The biggest dip has come in three-point shooting percentage. With Hinnant's 43% three-point shooting gone and with Tyrese Rice--who leads the team in 3FGAs--struggling a bit, the team is shooting 32% from outside (which ranks 243rd nationally), down from 36.8% last season. Fortunately for the Eagles, they are not in denial about it--they do not have Clemson Disorder. Their 3FGA/FGA ratio is lower in 2007 than it was in 2006.
Probable Starters:
Tyrese Rice (6-1, 190) -- Took over the primary scoring duties with Dudley injured, averaging 24.7 PPG over that span. Rice leads the team in %Poss and %Shots, and he isn't killing the offense by any means, but I've been wondering for weeks why Dudley and Marshall aren't taking a bigger chunk of the offense. This is not to say that Rice is ignoring his point guard duties, however; he has a good assist rate. He'll pull the trigger from outside at any time--he has 75 three-point attempts (about 6 per game).
Jared Dudley (6-7, 225) -- Dudley has missed BC's last three games while resting a stress fracture in his foot, but indications are that he'll be ready on Saturday. Dudley is having an excellent, first-team All-ACC type of season, and he isn't getting the ball enough. Tyrese Rice is taking 26.1% of BC's shots while he's on the court, Sean Marshall is taking 28.2%, and Dudley is next in line at just 21%. Now, Rice and Marshall had to pick up some slack when Dudley got hurt, but the Eagles were allocating their FGAs in a similar manner even when Dudley was playing. The man is hitting 62.1% of his shots and rarely turns the ball over--feed him!
My lone complaint: Dudley's on-court antics. You'd think that someone who has played as much and scored as many points as he has wouldn't need to go Lee Melchionni on us after every jumper.
Sean Marshall (6-6, 212) -- BC's third-leading scorer at 14.8 per game. He's the other (along with Rice) major three-point shooter among the starters. He won't get to the line too often, nor does he rebound very well.
John Oates (6-10, 255) -- There has to be something of positive value that Oates contributes while on the court (incisive repartee, maybe?); I just cant find it. Last season he could at least be relied upon to offer solid shooting, but his touch has failed him in 2007. Because he's actually quite perimeter-oriented, he's of little use on the offensive glass; his defensive rebounding, too, is weak, and he has no excuse for that.
Sean Williams (6-10, 235) -- Do not come into my man's lane. For serious. The Eagles have 100 blocks as a team; of those, 63 are Williams's. That's 5.7 per game, 7.1 per 40 minutes. But it isn't only about the blocks--Williams has improved his offensive game and become a valuable contributor at that end, too. He's hitting 60.8% of his shots and has lowered his turnover rate. His rebounding could still be better.
Bench:
Shamari Spears (6-6, 245), Marquez Haynes (6-3, 185), Tyrelle Blair (6-11, 240), and Tyler Roche (6-7, 208) make up the bench.
Spears was the most highly-regarded recruit in Al Skinner's 2006 class, and it's pretty clear why. Spears scores the ball efficiently and is already the team's best overall rebounder--one of the few Eagles doing a respectable job on the defensive glass.
Haynes has been good in the reserve PG/SG role, if a bit too turnover prone.
BC Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
45.9
55
Turnover Rate
20.3
261
Off Reb Rate
37.7
286
FTA/FGA
27.6
37
Interesting, isn't it, that a team can rebound so well at one end (offensive) and so poorly at the other (defensive)? They're probably better on the defensive glass than they look: seven of their 12 opponents rank in the top 50 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (Vermont, Providence, Rhode Island, Michigan State, UMass, Fairfield, and Kansas), so they've seen a lot of good rebounding teams thus far.
Pomeroy has the Eagles escaping Raleigh with a 78-77 win. I've got the Eagles winning 80-75.
Not 48 hours later, we're back at it. Hope the guys are resting today.
This UNCW offense scares me a bit. It's nothing special on paper, but the Seahawks have the benefit of a good matchup. They offensive rebound well; we don't defensive rebound well. They've been turnover prone; we play a handcuffed form of defense that hardly forces any. They shoot reasonably well; we still give up too many open looks.
Plus, they have Vladimir Kuljanin, who is having a fantastic season:
ORtg %Poss eFG% OR% DR% PPG RPG
118.5 23.7 69.1 12.9 21.3 16.2 8.2
Stopping Kuljanin is the Pack's main task, yes, but the Seahawks allocate their possessions and field goal attempts evenly among the starters. Kuljanin isn't the only leg they stand on.
Temi Soyebo (6-0, 170) -- Soyebo is turning the ball over way too much, even for a point guard. He won't shoot from outside too much, because when he does, he usually misses (28.6% from three this season, 20.5% last season). Other than a surprisingly high defensive rebounding percentage, there isn't much worth noting here.
Daniel Fountain (6-4, 210) -- The team's best three-point shooter, hitting 42.2% (19-45). He won't provide much beyond the outside shooting, but he is UNCW's second-leading scorer.
Montez Downey (6-5, 230) -- Taron Downey's little bro. He averages more than six 3-pt. attempts per game but only hits 25.5% of them. By all means, Montez--bombs away.
Todd Hendley (6-9, 235) -- Not to be confused with Todd Hundley. Hendley was a useful player last season, shooting 53.5% while providing scoring both inside and outside. 2007, on the other hand, has been a struggle. The outside shooting has gone bye bye. He's turning the ball over a lot more. His rebounding numbers are down, and they weren't good to begin with.
Vladimir Kuljanin (6-10, 265) -- As noted earlier, Kuljanin does a lot of things well. He rebounds at both ends, and goodness, can he ever shoot the ball. The most interesting thing to me about him, though, is his puny free throw rate. Eighteen FTAs in nine games. Sup with that?
Bench:
Dejan Grkovic (6-8, 225), Darryl Felder (6-3, 180), Jeff Horowitz (6-9, 250), and Derion Jeralds (6-1, 160) have each played in every Seahawks game this season, and each of them averages 10+ minutes per game. UNCW has no problem playing up-tempo, so look for them to use their depth as other Wolfpack opponents have. We may still be tired from Thursday.
UNCW Defense 05-06
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
44.3
9
Turnover Rate
23.3
63
Off Reb Rate
28.6
33
FTA/FGA
43.5
284
UNCW Defense 06-07
Four Factors
Percent
Nat'l Rank
eFG%
50.6
187
Turnover Rate
19.9
274
Off Reb Rate
32.8
133
FTA/FGA
39.1
219
UNCW had one of the 15 best defenses in the country last season; this year, the Seahawks have regressed significantly in the three areas that matter most and they're giving up an added 11.8 points/100 possessions.
Pomeroy has the Wolfpack winning 81-71. I've got 80-74.
