Friday, March 23, 2007

Previewing UConn

Might as well...

UConn Offense 06-07
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate21.0???
Off Reb Rate40.9???

A quick comparison:
        Off_Eff   Def_Eff   Margin
NCSU 93.2 79.6 +13.6
UConn 109.0 75.7 +33.3
That makes the Huskies 19.7 points better than the Wolfpack per 100 possessions. Assuming the game Saturday has 72 possessions (right at each team's average pace), the Huskies will be 14 points better. I don't have enough data for the Predict-O-Meter to give me a score, but expect 14 to be the margin of victory for UConn. How far can intangibles carry you? I guess we're about to find out.

The Huskies have a balanced offense: all five starters average double-digit points, and four of five average between 14-16 field goal attempts per forty minutes.


Renee Montgomery (5-7) -- UConn's leading scorer and point guard. She's not the primary option--she just gets more minutes than the other major contributors, hence the higher PPG. Averages nearly 6 assists/40 minutes and has a 1.7 A:T ratio.

Mel Thomas (5-9) -- Low-usage long range bomber, and a very good one at that. She's 84-198 (.424) from behind the arc this season.

Kalana Greene (5-10) -- Good rebounder for her size, she scores efficiently on twos and won't turn the ball over often.

Charde Houston (6-1) -- Hitting 55% of her shots, but a propensity for turnovers hurts her overall efficiency.

Tina Charles (6-4) -- Just a freshman and already a big time player. She shoots 60%, rebounds extraordinarily well at both ends of the court, is prone to neither turnovers nor fouls, and blocks a lot of shots. Her per-40-minute averages: 22.7 pts, 15 rebounds, 4.1 blocks. Charles, rightfully, is UConn's primary scoring option.


FREE BRITTANY HUNTER (6-3)!!! I beseech not Geno Auriemma, but the basketball gods, who've apparently seen fit to curse Brittany with a chronic knee problem. When she has been able to play this season (not often: 209 minutes), she's been awesome.
              ORtg    %Poss    eFG%    PPWS    TO%    Pts/40  Rebs/40  Blks/40  OR%     DR%
T. Charles 113.6 25.4 59.9 1.21 18.0 22.7 15.0 4.1 16.1 22.3
B. Hunter 113.1 29.2 60.2 1.18 17.4 25.6 18.2 3.6 24.8 22.8

UConn Defense 06-07
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate24.0???
Off Reb Rate29.4???

That is some kick ass FG% defense. UConn opponents have made 37.2% of their twos and 25.6% of their threes on the season.