Previewing UNCW

Scouting Report
Season Stats
Schedule
Roster

UNCW Offense 05-06

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	49.0	180
Turnover Rate	18.9	44
Off Reb Rate	33.5	127
FTM/FGA	22.5	255

UNCW Offense 06-07

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	50.6	145
Turnover Rate	25.4	285
Off Reb Rate	35.1	126
FTM/FGA	17.0	314

Not 48 hours later, we're back at it. Hope the guys are resting today.

This UNCW offense scares me a bit. It's nothing special on paper, but the Seahawks have the benefit of a good matchup. They offensive rebound well; we don't defensive rebound well. They've been turnover prone; we play a handcuffed form of defense that hardly forces any. They shoot reasonably well; we still give up too many open looks.

Plus, they have Vladimir Kuljanin, who is having a fantastic season:

ORtg   %Poss   eFG%   OR%    DR%    PPG    RPG

118.5   23.7   69.1   12.9   21.3   16.2   8.2

Stopping Kuljanin is the Pack's main task, yes, but the Seahawks allocate their possessions and field goal attempts evenly among the starters. Kuljanin isn't the only leg they stand on.

Player    %Poss  %Shots FGA

Kuljanin   23.7   27.2   97
Hendley    22.1   21.4   68
Soyebo     21.8   16.6   75
Downey     21.3   24.4   87
Fountain   18.7   19.2   80

Starters:

Temi Soyebo (6-0, 170) -- Soyebo is turning the ball over way too much, even for a point guard. He won't shoot from outside too much, because when he does, he usually misses (28.6% from three this season, 20.5% last season). Other than a surprisingly high defensive rebounding percentage, there isn't much worth noting here.

Daniel Fountain (6-4, 210) -- The team's best three-point shooter, hitting 42.2% (19-45). He won't provide much beyond the outside shooting, but he is UNCW's second-leading scorer.

Montez Downey (6-5, 230) -- Taron Downey's little bro. He averages more than six 3-pt. attempts per game but only hits 25.5% of them. By all means, Montez--bombs away.

Todd Hendley (6-9, 235) -- Not to be confused with Todd Hundley. Hendley was a useful player last season, shooting 53.5% while providing scoring both inside and outside. 2007, on the other hand, has been a struggle. The outside shooting has gone bye bye. He's turning the ball over a lot more. His rebounding numbers are down, and they weren't good to begin with.

Vladimir Kuljanin (6-10, 265) -- As noted earlier, Kuljanin does a lot of things well. He rebounds at both ends, and goodness, can he ever shoot the ball. The most interesting thing to me about him, though, is his puny free throw rate. Eighteen FTAs in nine games. Sup with that?

Bench:

Dejan Grkovic (6-8, 225), Darryl Felder (6-3, 180), Jeff Horowitz (6-9, 250), and Derion Jeralds (6-1, 160) have each played in every Seahawks game this season, and each of them averages 10+ minutes per game. UNCW has no problem playing up-tempo, so look for them to use their depth as other Wolfpack opponents have. We may still be tired from Thursday.

UNCW Defense 05-06

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	44.3	9
Turnover Rate	23.3	63
Off Reb Rate	28.6	33
FTA/FGA	43.5	284

UNCW Defense 06-07

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	50.6	187
Turnover Rate	19.9	274
Off Reb Rate	32.8	133
FTA/FGA	39.1	219

UNCW had one of the 15 best defenses in the country last season; this year, the Seahawks have regressed significantly in the three areas that matter most and they're giving up an added 11.8 points/100 possessions.

Pomeroy has the Wolfpack winning 81-71. I've got 80-74.