Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Hoops! Previewing William & Mary

2007 Scouting Report / 2008 Scouting Report

William & Mary Offense 06-07
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate20.3111
Off Reb Rate32.7197

The Tribe must replace guard Adam Payton, who was the team's leading scorer and a third team All-CAA selection in 2007, but the other four starters are back, as are the main contributors off the bench.

They were the definition of average offensively last season--the closest thing to a strength was their two-point shooting, but that was mitigated by a preference to shoot a lot of threes and shoot them poorly. W&M expected senior forward Corey Cofield to be a primary scorer; he ended up academically ineligible instead, forcing William & Mary into at three-guard lineup that made for a lot more shots from behind the arc. This transition did not go well. Such a shift tends to be problematic when you suck at shooting threes.


David Schneider (6-3, 175) -- I've read that Schneider is the point guard, but I have a hard time picturing a guy who averaged 3.5 assists/40 minutes in any sort of ball distribution role. While he did a nice job protecting the ball and getting to the line in 2007--not bad for a freshman--he had a terrible year shooting.

Nathan Mann (6-2, 190) -- Schneider's partner in three-point-brick-laying crime, Mann led the team in 3FGAs last season. But although he ended the season having hit less than a third of his threes (32.3%), he shot much better than that over the last 13 games of the season--right around the 41.1% he shot in 2006.

Laimis Kisielius (6-8, 225) -- Likely to be the Tribe's highest usage player and leading scorer in 2008. After putrid freshman and sophomore seasons, Kisielius miraculously discovered a shooting touch as a junior last season, so I can't help but be a little suspicious.
        2FG%    3FG%
2005 42.1 30.2
2006 40.6 20.0
2007 50.0 40.4
He's turnover-prone, and he isn't much of a rebounder or shot blocker.

Peter Stein (6-9, 235) -- A low-usage role player who provides efficient shooting. But oh my heavens, the turnovers.

Chris Darnell (6-9, 235) -- Well, he, uh ... you don't want him touching the basketball if you're William & Mary. He averaged about 7 shots per 40 minutes last year and had three attempts in 29 minutes against Georgetown on Saturday--a minimal impact, to say the least. As if you couldn't tell, the Tribe will rely heavily on Schneider/Mann/Kisielius.


Alex Smith (6-5, 250), Kyle Carrabine (6-7, 210), and Danny Sumner (6-7, 205) should see most of the time off the bench, especially against the Wolfpack. The Georgetown game is probably a good indication of how the minutes will be distributed.

Smith provided efficient shooting and solid rebounding as the sixth man a year ago. On paper, he jumps out as a player who should have gotten more time than he did. He handled an above-average proportion of possessions and was (by W&M standards) still reasonably efficient.

Carrabine is a three-point specialist. Anagram "Kyle Carrabine" and you get Nae Bricklayer (that can't be a good sign).

William & Mary Defense 06-07
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate20.2214
Off Reb Rate32.6124

They rarely blocked shots or stole the basketball in 2007, which doesn't speak too well for their athleticism (William and Mary basketball: We're whiter than Canada!). It also makes me wonder how their TO% wasn't worse than it was. The block rate may improve a wee bit as the guys who are halfway decent at altering shots ease into a little more PT in '08 (plus, they ranked 310th in this category; there's no where else to go), but the steal rate may be another story since Payton was their best player in this regard.

The Tribe allowed opponents to shoot 50% on their twos last season--that along with the lousy block rate point to a vulnerable interior defense.

The Predict-O-Meter will be on hiatus until January or thereabouts. But, like, we should totally win.