Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Thoughts After The St. Aug's Game

NC State
Four FactorsPercent
Turnover Rate16.5
Off Reb Rate28.1

St. Augustine's
Four FactorsPercent
Turnover Rate17.9
Off Reb Rate25.0

-- State scored 87 points on 73 possessions, which is an Offensive Efficiency of 119 and a big improvement over the NSU game. It's good to see that low TO%.

-- Unfortunately, I can't speak as highly of the defense; we didn't force many turnovers and St. Aug's shot a good percentage. Both Northern State and St. Aug's had eFGs above 50, and that is alarming. Last year's Wolfpack couldn't force turnovers or defensive rebound very well, so we had to rely heavily on our ability to keep opponents' shooting percentages down in order to get stops. That was our strength--teams only shot 46.3% against us, which was the second-best number in the ACC. Although shooting is the most important of the four factors, our weakness in those other two factors made for a mediocre defense.

So if our field goal defense has abandoned us, and we still can't force turnovers, and we still can't rebound at the defensive end...yikes! Will this year's Wolfpack have anything to hang its hat on? Take a look at Wake's in-conference OFF EFF/DEF EFF from 2006. Their offense was actually above league average, but their defense was so terrible (here's some perspective), they couldn't keep up with their opponents. I could see the Wolfpack having a similar profile in 2007.

-- Our offensive rebound rate has been under 30% in both exhibition games--don't expect it to get better. We only rebounded 28% of our misses last season. If we shoot well and protect the ball (two Sendek staples), the rebounding isn't an issue--we'll have an efficient offense anyway. With all the personnel losses we've suffered, however, we're bound to regress in eFG% and TO%.