Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Previewing NC Central

2009 Scouting Report/Schedule
2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats
2009 Roster

NC Central Offense 07-08
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate28.6341
Off Reb Rate28.9289
NC Central Offense 08-09
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate24.1313
Off Reb Rate29.0291

With an offense and a defense that rank in I-A's bottom five, Central is last in the Pomeroy ratings--the worst team in I-A. The only question tonight is whether they'll accidentally throw the basketball through the hoop enough times to break 30 points, which they did not manage to do against the Wolfpack last season. They've played five opponents in the Pomeroy top 100, losing by an average of 37.4 points.

The Eagles are so bad they haven't even been competitive against the rest of I-A's dregs. They're 1-7 against teams ranked 300 or worse in the Pomeroy ratings, losing by an average of 12.3 points. They also have the dubious distinction of having lost to a non-div I school, Chowan, which is an all-girls middle school in Murfreesboro, NC.


Bryan Ayala (6-3, 190) -- Stole the show against the Wolfpack last season with an astounding display of incapability at the offensive end: 1-14 from the field, 0-4 from the line.

Jamar Briscoe (5-10, 155) -- The only guy on the team making more than 30% of his threes.

Vincent Davis (6-2, 170) -- The lone Eagle with a sub-20% turnover rate. Along with Ayala and Briscoe, he's one of the team's primary contributors.

Nick Chasten (6-7, 216) -- Shooting 43.6%, Chasten is a model of scoring efficiency in the context of this team.

Stevy Worah-Ozimo (6-9, 220) -- His 2FG% is higher than his FT%.

NC Central Defense 07-08
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate20.9169
Off Reb Rate39.9339
NC Central Defense 08-09
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
Turnover Rate21.7119
Off Reb Rate41.8343

Central is one of the shortest squads in I-A, and they're dead last in 2FG% defense, so a heavy dose of zone seems likely. Not that it matters. The idea is not to stop the club from meeting the skull--that's not possible--but to perhaps slow the frequency with which it happens.

The Pomeroy Predictor expects us to score 87 points on 65 possessions for an OE of 133.8.