Remember what a win looks like?

Yeah, I don't either. Here's a refresher.

NC State

Four Factors
eFG%	54.5
Turnover Rate	16.1
Off Reb Rate	17.1
FTM/FGA	32.1

Miami

Four Factors
eFG%	48.5
Turnover Rate	17.5
Off Reb Rate	36.8
FTM/FGA	16.2

Our free throw rate is always important for us, but especially so against the Hurricanes. NC State's correlations:

         Correlations
                  to OE       to DE
           Pace:  -0.17       +0.36

           eFG%:  +0.66*      +0.19
            OR%:  +0.22       -0.19
            TO%:  -0.34       -0.05
            FTR:  +0.55*      -0.09

       Opp eFG%:  -0.02       +0.88*
        Opp OR%:  +0.05       +0.24
        Opp TO%:  +0.22       -0.31
        Opp FTR:  +0.07       +0.50*

       Bold  values are significant with a 95% confidence
       Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence

Miami's:

                Correlations
                   to OE       to DE
            Pace:  +0.25       -0.08

            eFG%:  +0.77*      +0.14
             OR%:  +0.26       -0.12
             TO%:  -0.29       -0.06
             FTR:  +0.26       -0.09

        Opp eFG%:  +0.14       +0.74*
         Opp OR%:  -0.04       +0.35
         Opp TO%:  -0.03       -0.66*
         Opp FTR:  -0.10       +0.46

        Bold  values are significant with a 95% confidence
        Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence

There is a statistically significant correlation between our FTR and our offensive efficiency, and there is also a relationship between opponents' FTR and Miami's defensive efficiency.

Back when I previewed the Hurricanes, I wrote:

In order to put themselves in position to make the NCAA tournament in 2008, Miami needed to drastically improve its defense and find a way to score on the road. They maybe possibly have accomplished the former, but we won't know about the latter for a while.

As far as the defensive improvement goes, mission accomplished. The Canes stayed healthy, their 2FG% defense stayed solid, and that took care of it. They were still a below-average defensive squad this season--they still didn't defend the three--but the 107.2 points they allowed per 100 possessions is nearly a 10-point improvement on the 117.0 DEF EFF they posted in conference play a year ago.

And they did do a better job of scoring on the road, but not much:

             OFF EFF
.        Home      Road
2007     115.4      96.3
2008     110.9     100.8

But they were able to catch enough breaks at home to make up for their ineffectiveness on the road, so NCAA tournament-bound (probably) they are.

The Predict-O-Meter likes Miami by 8: 76-68 in a game with 66 possessions.