Sunday, March 04, 2007

Final Adjusted Conference Standings

(Previous adjusted standings.)

In the table below, teams are ordered by their expected conference records, which are derived from each team's offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play. Expected W-L records are calculated using the pythagorean theorem, and you can read all about it here.

ExpW-L = Expected Win-Loss Record
ActW-L = Actual Win-Loss Record

Conference Games Only
Rank TeamGamesOFF EFF (Rk)
EFF MarginExpW-LActW-L
1 UNC16112.5 (1)
95.7 (1)
2 Maryland16106.4 (6)
100.3 (3)
3 Duke
16103.9 (8)
98.8 (2)
4 Virginia
16103.5 (9)
101.4 (4)
5Boston College
16109.7 (T2)
108.0 (9)
6 Georgia Tech
16107.4 (5)
105.9 (6)
7 Florida State
16109.7 (T2)
109.0 (10)
8 Virginia Tech
16107.8 (4)
107.3 (8)
16102.3 (10)
103.8 (5)
10NC State
16101.1 (11)
111.4 (11)
11 Miami16105.8 (7)
117.0 (12)
12Wake Forest1695.1 (12)
106.7 (7)

-- On Miami's defense...

Canes beat writer Omar Kelly had a Q&A with Frank Haith during which he (Kelly) asserted the following:

Your team has been one of the top defensive squads in the ACC the past two seasons, but this year there has been a significant drop off.

One of the top defensive teams in the ACC. Ha! Haith didn't disagree with that notion, though. (And why would he? "Actually, Omar, I can't teach defense for the life of me. Our team defense resembles a jelly doughnut: inviting on the outside with a delicious creamy center inside. I should probably be fired.")

They're committing the cardinal sin of college hoops analysis: looking at PPG and failing to account for tempo. Miami is one of the slowest teams in the conference every year. In conference play over the last three years, the Hurricanes have ranked 10th, 10th, and 12th, respectively, in defensive efficiency. If you cruise around Ken Pomeroy's stats page, you'll see their full season numbers have been no better.

Take note, you would-be coaches: the best way to create a reputation as a teacher of good defense is to install a methodical offense. Look at those Princeton guys! 52.5 PPG allowed; they must have an awesome defense! They do not. What they do have is some good names: Strittmatter, Buffmire, and my new favorite college hoops name, Kyle Koncz. Tyler Hansbrough got Koncz-ed on the nose earlier today.

Sorry. What was I talking about?

-- NC State, last three seasons (speaking of overrated defense...):
         OE (Rk)       DE (Rk)     ExpW-L   ActW-L   Poss/G
2005 112.0 (4) 110.5 (11) 9-7 7-9 63
2006 110.2 (4) 107.3 (9) 9-7 10-6 69
2007 101.1 (11) 111.4 (11) 4-12 5-11 67
Not a whole lot changed for the defense this year, as we're mired near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency as per usual. The difference has been offensively, where production fell off a cliff.

-- (10) NC State vs. (7) Duke on Thursday. Tough break for us, but there are a few reasons to think positively. Assuming Gerald Henderson remains suspended, more minutes are going to have to go to McClure/Thomas/Zoubek, and all three of those guys are very turnover-prone. Maybe we can count on a few more unforced errors from the Dukies. Which would be good since we don't go through the trouble of forcing any ourselves. There's also the Engin Atsur factor; Engin didn't play in the first meeting and we were helpless against their clutch-and-grab defense. (Kudos, Coach K, to the defensive niche you've crafted for yourself with your tireless bullying of officials. Playing Duke is like playing the New Jersey Devils.)

But Henderson's absence isn't likely to damage Duke's interior defense, and there's our problem. We shot 33.3% on twos in the first meeting.

So Duke is the bad part of the Pack's tournament draw, but the rest is all good, baby. Virginia is the fraudingest fraud that ever frauded its way to the two-seed, and Virginia Tech, well, you know.

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