Wednesday, October 25, 2006

You know, I could use a little more bad news.

I know we've all been riding high in the wake of State's stunning and dramatic bass fishing national championship, but the fates have decided it is time to wash off the lingering scent of champagne and come back to reality.

Confirmed by posters at Pack Pride and by SFN: Atsur has a foot injury.

Player / % Of Team Min Played In 05-06

1) Atsur / 81.3%
2) Grant / 55.6%
3) McCauley / 14.3%
4) Fells / 10%

I'll be interested to see how the roster situation and the new offense affect Atsur's numbers (assuming he's healthy by the start of the season). Atsur is used to playing a lot of minutes, but he's never been a high-usage guy (i.e., he typically has a low %Poss number). An average player uses 20% of his team's possessions while on the court; in three years, Atsur has never eclipsed 20%: 15.8% (FR), 15.0% (SO), 17.6% (JR).

This is why Gavin Grant has to play better this season. We simply have no alternatives; someone's got to take a higher than average chunk of possessions. One of the inexperienced guys may be up to the challenge, but right now it's impossible to know who that might be. Plus, we already know Grant is going to use a lot of possessions; that's just the kind of player he is. My guess is that he'll step up to 27-28% in the usage category this year, which is Julius Hodge/Anthony Grundy territory. In his first two seasons, Grant has been inefficient (high turnover rate, meh shooting) in a secondary role. How he handles his newfound primary role will go a long way in determining if we can surprise people or if we will assume the spot that's been reserved for us at the bottom of the conference standings.