Leon Powe And Etcetera

California Scouting Report

They call him The Show, and with good reason. It's all about Leon.

Cal Offense 05-06

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	50.2	131
Turnover Rate	18.4	29
Off Reb Rate	29.1	270
FTM/FGA	33.4	5

Hey, look, it's a team that offensive rebounds almost as poorly as we do. That's a bonus.

Leon Powe uses 31.5% of Cal's possessions when he's on the court, a number that ranks 20th in the nation. The proportion of the team's shots that he takes is similarly high, so it's not hard to figure out the key to stopping the California offense. Stop The Show.

It is going to be very important for the Wolfpack to take advantage of Cal's weak offensive rebounding, because the Bears probably won't turn the ball over too much. And Cal is only a decent shooting team, so if we can limit second chances, the Bears could have some problems.

Starters:

Ayinde Ubaka (6-3, 200) -- Ubaka gives the team a steady hand at the point (see low TO%) and a second scoring threat. In general, the team doesn't rely on the three-pointer, but Ubaka will shoot a lot of them. He has made 38% of his 161 3-pt attempts. Not a quick-handed guy at the defensive end, if his lack of steals is any indication. He's the only Cal regular aside from Powe who has an above-average usage. Has seven offensive rebounds in 1120 minutes. That's JJ Redick territory right there.

Richard Midgley (6-3, 195) -- Richard Midgley is dead to me.

Omar Wilkes (6-4, 185) -- A low-usage guy (under 16%), like Midgley. Easily the team's worst all-around rebounder. He'll shoot the three sparingly but shoot it well. (Omar [hearts] a double team on Powe.)

"And Leon's getting laaaarger!"

Leon Powe (6-8, 240) -- People, this is going to take a lot of jinxing. Or a dose of Carl Krauser. It's the only way we're gonna keep him from scoring 30.

DeVon Hardin (6-11, 235) -- Very good rebounder, and the team's biggest shot-blocking threat. He's only hit 50% of his field goal attempts, though.

Other Guys:

Beyond Theo Robertson (6-5, 240), it's difficult to get a feel for Cal's bench rotation. I mean, take a look at the season box score. Rod Benson (6-10, 220) will probably play, as will Jordan Wilkes (6-11, 225) and Eric Vierneisel (6-7, 205). And some other guys, maybe. Robertson will get solid minutes; otherwise, PT for the bench guys looks spotty.

Cal Defense 05-06

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	49.4	157
Turnover Rate	20.6	194
Off Reb Rate	27.7	16
FTM/FGA	30.4	59

Cal's defense is led by the brilliant defensive rebounding of Powe and Hardin. NC State doesn't need offensive rebounds to be successful, of course. Shooting well takes care of that (and State's shooting during its losing streak hasn't been as bad as you might think).

These two teams have efficiency margins (OFF EFF - DEF EFF) that are nearly identical, which makes the outcome a toss up. NC State won't have any confidence going into the game, though, so it'll be interesting to see how it reacts if the Bears jump out quickly. All I want is a good effort. The Wolfpack played well in the second half against Wake Forest (in the ACCT), and maybe that's a sign of better things to come.

I'm excited about the game. Can't help it.