Taking Another Look At Carolina
Here's my preview from the first meeting; updated Four Factors and other stats are located in the scouting report.
-- One of the few things (the only thing?) NC State's defense did well in the first game was defensive rebound. We'll need more of the same on Wednesday, but I'm having trouble being optimistic after what happened in Blacksburg.
-- Hansbrough's in-conference O Rtg is 123, which puts him in the ACC's top five in that category. He's averaging 26.6 pts/40 on 59.9% shooting. Hopefully NC State can do a better job of guarding Hansbrough without fouling him; he went to the line 14 times in the first meeting and averages an ACC-leading 11.6 FTA/40 min in-conference. That's a nice skill to have when you make 75% of your free throws.
-- Reyshawn Terry is putting up numbers in ACC play that are nearly as good as Hansbrough's. Terry averages 24.4 pts/40 and 10.3 rebs/40, but does still struggle with turnovers.
-- Frasor and Noel have turnover rates above 30% in ACC play. And let's just say that UNC should list "turning the ball over" as a hobby in Quentin Thomas's tarheelblue.com player profile. But that's why Q only gets 10 minutes per game.
-- Back in January, I wondered why Marcus Ginyard was getting more playing time than Danny Green and...I'm still wondering. Green's in-conference O Rtg (110) is 4th on the team behind Hansbrough, Terry, and the man of light usage--Wes Miller. Ginyard's O Rtg is 90. Green is averaging 19.4 points and 10.0 rebounds per 40 minutes, compared to Ginyard's 9.0 and 5.8.
-- On average, North Carolina has been pretty efficient on the road, but they've had some big swings from game to game. I thought it was interesting that Carolina's three best and three worst in-conference offensive performances have come on the road. They've posted offensive efficiencies anywhere from 93.1 (at VT) to 132.7 (at Miami).
-- Score Predictor says: NC State 78, UNC 76.