Saturday, February 04, 2006

Previewing Maryland

Maryland Scouting Report

Whether or not it's justified, I tend to worry about the plexiglass principle over the short term. That is, I don't like to see opponents play poorly in a game right before they play NC State because I fear they will bounce back and play really well against the Wolfpack. Maryland had an OFF EFF of 79 against North Carolina on Thursday. They shot terribly, they didn't rebound like they normally do, and they didn't make free throws like they normally do. The good news is the Terps have been a bad road team.

Maryland Offense 05-06
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
eFG%50.7110
Turnover Rate21.8184
Off Reb Rate39.023
FTM/FGA30.923

No ACC team gets a higher proportion of its offense from the free throw line. Maryland is hitting 74.4% of its free throws on the season, 75.3% in conference play. The Terps are among the fastest-paced teams in the country.

Several Terrapins have struggled in conference games, which has made the Maryland offense very pedestrian over that span. Ibekwe, Garrison and Strawberry each have O Rtgs below 100 in conference; Garrison and Strawberry are actually below 90.

Probable Starters:

DJ Strawberry (6-5, 201) -- In addition to shooting poorly in conference, Strawberry also has a high turnover rate (over 30%). It's his lucky day, though, because NC State isn't going to force mistakes.

Mike Jones (6-5, 204) -- Maryland ranks 330th in 3FGA/FGA even with Jones doing all he can to help the cause. With McCray out, there's really no one but Jones to concern the Pack with outside shooting. He has 80 of Maryland's 267 3FGAs and has made over 46% of his attempts on the season. Does have a tendency to turn it over.

Nik Caner-Medoodily (6-8, 240) -- Caner-Medoodily really has done an admirable job in McCray's absense, and he is Maryland's most efficient player in conference play. Rebounds decently, does a good job drawing fouls. No doubt relieved to not have to guard Julius Hodge.

Ekene Ibekwe (6-9, 220) -- Only shooting 40.8% in conference and perhaps uses more possessions than he should.

Travis Garrison (6-8, 241) -- Could be Gist in this spot, especially with Garrison shooting a ghastly 32.4% in conference. Personally, I think Garrison is underappreciated; however, there's no denying how bad he's been in ACC play. He does a lot of damage on the offensive glass.

Bench:

James Gist (6-8, 223) is having a much better go of it than his post-mates are. His secondary role has allowed him to be more selective and shoot at a higher percentage (56.5% in conference).

Parrish Brown (6-1, 175), Will Bowers (7-1, 262) and Sterling Ledbetter (6-4, 198) will see some time, though Maryland isn't inclined to use any of them for very long. All three have been terrible in conference play, and they won't take much of a part in the offense.

Whenever I see Bowers, I always get the impression that he and his five o'clock shadow have just arrived from a kegger. And pre-gaming is important, you know.

Maryland Defense 05-06
Four FactorsPercentNat'l Rank
eFG%48.8136
Turnover Rate22.791
Off Reb Rate30.177
FTA/FGA35.0143