Tuesday, January 31, 2006

I am perfectly comfortable in my perimeter-orientation.

Shame on me for missing this last week. After NCSU and West Virginia lost head-scratchers last Wednesday, Ryan took the opportunity to discuss the two schools' reliance on the three-pointer. He mentions, among other things, the variance that inevitably comes with shooting a lot of threes:

The downside of the three, however, is its variability. Teams don't often go cold on shots inside of ten feet, but even good shooting teams occasionally fire blanks from downtown.

Here's a quick, simplistic example. Team A shoots only twos. A bad night might mean shooting 45%, while they'll hit 60% when the offense is clicking. Team B shoots only threes. Their performances generally range from 25% accuracy to 50%. If both teams get 50 shots, Team A will score between 45 and 60 points. Team B will score between 37.5 and 75 points. The three point shooting team will have higher highs, but lower lows.

I have little doubt that NC State's dependence on the three, which is criticized (fairly, I might add) by a lot of fans, fuels the complaints about scoring droughts.