Sunday, August 07, 2005

Two-thirds Through

I did this back in early June at the one-third mark in the season, and here is another update. The charts compare each player's PECOTA projection, numbers through 54 games, and numbers through 109 games. For the hitters, their splits (Avg/OBP/SLG) are shown; for the pitchers, it's just ERA.

White Sox Hitters
PlayerPECOTA Projection1/3 Season 2/3 Season
Aaron Rowand.290/.341/.482.290/.350/.435.287/.340/.410
Paul Konerko.276/.353/.494.230/.342/.476.265/.364/.505
Jermaine Dye.256/.332/.449.240/.287/.470.271/.333/.504
Scotty Pods.278/.342/.416.289/.369/.322.285/.352/.343
Tad Iguchi.300/.345/.425**.294/.345/.435.290/.358/.446
Joe Crede.266/.321/.459.227/.290/.395.248/.300/.433
Carl Everett.273/.338/.444.247/.306/.424.259/.310/.456
Juan Uribe.269/.316/.444.247/.273/.383.244/.282/.343
AJ Pierzynski.277/.327/.430.255/.325/.443.274/.327/.485
Willie Harris.262/.333/.368.275/.373/.275.217/.287/.228
Chris Widger???.347/.396/.551.260/.324/.417
Big Hurt.274/.399/.529.167/.375/.167.219/.315/.590

** -- Iguchi projection taken from this Harball Times article

A third of the way through the season, Chicago was 8th in the AL in runs scored, 10th in batting average, 9th in OBP, and 8th in SLG. Through two-thirds of the season, the Sox have improved to 6th in runs scored and 6th in slugging, but have dropped to 11th in both batting average and on-base percentage.

The White Sox lead the AL in stolen bases (shocker, I know), but they could take a page or two from Tampa Bay. The D-Rays are an impressive 107-135 (79%) on stolen base attempts, compared to Chicago's 113-163 (69%).

I was hoping that Timo wouldn't be on the roster at this point, but alas. At least he's hitting over .200 now. I understand his intangibles are having a career year.

Paully, Jermaine Dye, and AJ Pierzynski have made notable improvements during June and July. Konerko hit .315/.388/.500 in July. Dye's 54-game numbers reflect his poor April, but really, he's hit well since May.

Rowand, Pods, Iguchi, and Uribe have stayed consistent. Scotty Pods isn't getting on base quite as often, but he's got that slugging percentage up 20 points! Still waiting for Scotty's first homerun.

I continue to be impressed by the Iguchi projection from the Harball Times. That deserves another mention.

Here are the pitchers:

White Sox Pitchers
PlayerPECOTA Proj ERA1/3 Season ERA 2/3 Season ERA
Mark Buehrle4.473.072.79
Jon Garland5.053.403.40
Freddy Garcia4.553.533.83
Jose Contreras4.913.274.41
El Duque4.354.154.69
Luis Vizcaino4.916.043.81
Dustin Hermanson5.091.131.67
Damaso Marte3.992.143.15
Cliff Politte4.791.771.89
Neal Cotts4.933.002.18
Shingo Takatsu*4.546.915.97

* -- no longer with the Big Club.

The Sox continue to lead the American League in earned run average.

I wrote this back in June...

Mark Buehrle continues to garner absolutely no respect from PECOTA, but that's okay. He outperformed his projection last year, and he'll do it again this year. The other guys...who knows.
At this point, I think it's a good bet that Garcia and Garland will also outperform their projections. Most of the bullpen still looks good, too.

Gotta give some credit to Luis Vizcaino for turning his season around over the last two months. Cliff Politte and Superstar Reliever Neal Cotts have continued to do a good job, as has Dustin Hermanson.

Chicago has the best runs scored-runs allowed differential in the AL, though the ridiculous Oakland A's are closing the gap quickly.