Tuesday, May 17, 2005

I beseech you, Jermaine Dye.

Please find your mojo. Unlike Paul Konerko, when you don't hit for a reasonable average, you don't seem to get on base at all.

The following table displays JD's 2005 numbers-to-date, his career averages (note: I used Dye's average plate appearances per season to determine his career average walks and strikeouts per season), and Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection for the 2005 season.

Dye 2005.198.246.38921527.0370.193.87
Dye Career.269.331.46023.63989.0800.453.90
Dye Pecota.256.332.44922.64188n/a0.47n/a

[P = pitches; PA = plate appearance]

About the only thing that looks good this season is the rate at which Dye is hitting dingers...but is that increase suprising (or significant enough to merit discussion?) considering his move to The Cell? His walk rate has gone completely out the window, and while his pitches seen per plate appearance aren't far off from his career average, Dye hasn't averaged fewer than 4.0 P/PA since 2001.

It's funny--signing Dye is one of the few offseason moves made by the White Sox that I agreed with. I thought playing in a hitter's park would make Dye's numbers look good (better than 2004's), and I thought he came at a fairly good price. And I thought he'd be way better than the chaff that the Sox trotted out to right field last season after Magglio Ordonez went down.

There's still plenty of time for Jermaine to turn it around (he has hit .239/.314/.522 this month, which still blows, but blows somewhat less), but I'm beginning to lose hope.