Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Never tell me the odds!

Once again, Ken Pomeroy's log5 analysis of the conference tournaments is available.

What the heck is a "log5"? Start here. Basically, all the figures listed below indicate a team's probability of getting to a particular round of their conference tournament, with the rightmost column showing that team's chances of winning it all. These probabilities are based on the adjusted Pythagorean winning percentages that Ken tallies up for all D-I teams, percentages that are always similar, but never identical, to the tempo-free numbers that I track. Where there's an interesting discrepancy I'll try to point it out, knowing full well that Ken's not here to defend himself, so what I say goes.

Bear in mind these are mere probabilities, not destiny. DePaul had just a 13 percent chance of beating Cincinnati yesterday. In what by my lights was a rather rude display of disinterest in things tempo-free, the Blue Demons won anyway.

NC State is given a 45.8% chance of reaching Friday, a 9.4% chance of reaching Saturday, a 1.7% chance of reaching the finals, and a 0.3% of winning the whole thing.

So the Maryland game is a toss up (the Predict-O-Meter, which says the Pack is one point better than the Terps on a neutral floor, agrees), but after that the odds get long in a hurry. Still, these are the best odds State's gotten in the Lowe era:

2007: 10.0 / 2.7 / 0.5 / 0.0
2008: 26.9 / 7.2 / 0.8 / 0.09

I'm uncomfortable with this thought as it runs contrary to my default pessimism, but I haven't been able to shake it: if we match Maryland's energy level, I think we cruise to victory. Everything about Maryland's win in Raleigh felt like a fluke to me (this could be the bitterness talking). Vasquez is more than capable of blowing up against our back court one more time (we are very accommodating, after all), but if he doesn't, I don't think the rest of the team can pick up the slack.