ACC Now's Hoops Preview

JP Giglio's already looking ahead to basketball season with this most excellent summer preview. Some tidbits:

Dave Telep (who briefly analyzes each school's incoming recruits for the preview) thinks he knows who our starting point guard will be:

If I had to put money on N.C. State’s next point guard, I'd go with Gonzalez. Degand's been in the program for a year but he's going to have a fight on his hands. Let’s face it, to play point guard for N.C. State next season, you have to have the ability to get the ball to their three best players — Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley and J.J. Hickson. Their point guard needs to be a facilitator. They’re not going to ask their point guard to do a crazy amount. Despite his youth, that will be Gonzalez. He's always played with a lot of courage, a real confident kid.

On Duke, JP says:

Since Mike Krzyzewski returned from hip and back problems after the 1994-95 season, Duke's success has been predicated on the 3-point shot.

About a month ago, he wrote something similar, saying that "Duke needs the 3-pointer." But is that true? Have they been that reliant on threes?

       3FGA/FGA
1996     33.0
1997     36.8
1998     32.4
1999     30.5
2000     34.2
2001     41.8
2002     37.6
2003     33.9
2004     33.4
2005     39.8
2006     35.2
2007     29.6

The table lists the percentage of Duke's field goal attempts that were threes; the NCAA average proportion is in the 33-34% range. Duke's average proportion over the twelve seasons listed: 34.9%. There are a couple of years where they relied heavily on threes (2001 and 2005, namely), but in general they've shot them at a standard rate.

On Georgia Tech:

Put it this way, with just Crittenton (nevermind Young), Tech could have been a Final Four team. Without him, it could still make the NCAA Tournament — particularly with a schedule that avoids having to play Duke, UNC or N.C. State twice — but the breaks are going to have to fall their way.

Tech's offense is going to be interesting to watch. They had one of the worst turnover rates in the ACC last season, and now they have to break in a new point guard. Not to mention that they may need to rely on Jeremis Smith and Ra'Sean Dickey more this season, and those two guys handle the ball like it's a bar of soap. The Jackets will again be very good at offensive rebounding and they'll get efficient shooting (from the starting five, at least), so that TO% will make a big difference one way or the other.