The Columbia Regional

Tourney Bracket

The offenses, sorted by expected winning percentage:

          G     RS     RA     Diff  PythW%   ExpW-L   ActW-L
Oregon    59    328    165    163    .798    47-12    42-17
NCSU      60    273    142    131    .787    47-13    41-19
USC       57    150    119     31    .614    35-22    34-23
PSU       49    223    179     44    .608    30-19    26-23

Offense continued; sorted by OPS:

        Avg     OBP     SLG     OPS     ISO    R/G
Oregon .310    .387    .482    .869    .172    5.6
NCSU   .274    .360    .449    .809    .175    4.6
PSU    .291    .357    .416    .773    .125    4.6
USC    .234    .293    .321    .614    .087    2.6

The pitching, sorted by fielding-independent ERA:

           ERA     IP     HR/7    K/7    BB/7   K/BB   WHIP    FIP    Opp_OPS
USC       1.68    399     0.40    7.0    1.4    4.9    0.92    2.66    .516
NCSU      1.77    411.7   0.37    7.9    2.8    2.8    1.05    3.04    .536
PSU       2.85    314.7   0.60    6.0    3.2    1.9    1.45    4.18    .713
Oregon    2.51    376.7   0.65    4.1    2.0    2.0    1.15    4.18    .633

Notes:

-- Penn State is the only team that we've seen this season; the Pack lost 5-3 to the Nittany Lions back on February 10th.

-- South Carolina owns a frighteningly poor offense. I know the SEC is tough, but jeez. McKenna Hughes is hitting .318/.372/.566 and has ten of the team's 18 home runs; beyond her, there ain't much. Tori Martin, a starter in 55 of 56 games, has a .134/.258/.207 line. Give her credit for the best walk rate on the team, though she also has the highest strikeout rate (d'oh). So she's got two of the three true outcomes down.

You're going to need great pitching with an offense that terrible, and it looks like South Carolina has the regional's best staff. USC's pitchers strikeout a batter an inning and they don't walk anybody; opponents have a .244 OBP this season. The Gamecocks are likely to send Melissa Hendon to the mound against us on Friday; here's how she compares to Abbie Sims:

           ERA    IP     K/7    BB/7   K/BB   H/7    WHIP    FIP    Opp_OPS
Sims      1.69    219    8.8    2.8    3.1    4.2    1.00    2.78    .514
Hendon    1.57    223    7.5    1.3    6.0    4.5    0.83    2.77    .511

Give an edge to the Pack because of its offense, but the game will be close.

-- Oregon doesn't have quite the run scoring problem. Ann Marie Topps, hitting .282/.360/.650, has as many homers as the entire South Carolina team. Jennifer Salling is hitting a ridiculous .483/.591/.864; in her profile she says that, were she stranded on an island, she'd be with her cell phone. Now, see, that's just not practical thinking. You can't... well, actually, I suppose you could... it just wouldn't be ideal, is all.

The Pac-10 is so tough that the Ducks could only manage a 7-14 record in conference play. Eighteen of their 21 conference games were played against opponents ranked in the top 20.

They finished tied for last in the Pac-10, and they're the team to beat.