Friday, March 31, 2006

The Home/Road Split: Offense

I'm ignoring defense and efficiency margin here, so this isn't an evaluation of the best home or road teams. Just best/worst home and road offenses. Let's see who hated those road trips...

Home/Road OFF EFF Differential -- Conference Games
Rank TeamGamesHome OFF EFFRoad OFF EFFHome-Road Margin
1 Virginia1611287.324.7
2 Clemson16106.392.413.9
3 Maryland1610389.813.2
4 Miami16111.1103.27.9
5Boston College16114106.77.3
6 NC State16113.2107.26.0
7 Florida State16104.9103.91.0
8 Wake Forest16105106.1-1.1
9UNC16111.2112.6-1.4
10Virginia Tech16100.4102.5-2.1
11 Duke16110.9115-4.1
12Georgia Tech1697.4101.8-4.4

Maryland had the largest home/road differential in 2005 (the Terps were about 17 pts/100 poss worse on the road), and while Caner-Medoodily and company put forth a similarly inconsistent effort in 2006, they were no match for Virginia.

The quality of defense the Cavs faced on the road was higher than what they faced at home, but that difference wasn't nearly large enough to account for Virginia's offensive drop off. At home, UVA was one of the three best offensive teams in the conference; on the road, they were the absolute worst. Amazing.

In eight road games, the Hoos did not once post an offensive efficiency rating above 100. Virginia is the only ACC school to manage this bit of ineptitude in conference play over last two seasons. (In at least the last two years. My numbers don't go back any further.) Virginia's best showing on the road? The .96 pts/poss it averaged at NC State.

Dave Leitao needs to make like Norman Dale and bust out the tape measure when his team is on the road. "See, guys? It's just like the gym back home..."

-- Playing at home, nine schools had offenses that performed at or above the conference average of 104.9 pts/100 poss. On the road, only five schools were league average or better.

-- The most consistent teams in league play were Wake, FSU, UNC, and Virginia Tech. Those teams could expect about the same level of offensive output regardless of venue. That's wonderful if you're an excellent offensive team like the Tar Heels, bearable if you're league-average like Wake and FSU, but if you're Virginia Tech, you'd probably like to be surprised a little more often.

-- Obviously the heckling that Duke endures on the road doesn't affect its performance. The Blue Devils had a similar split in 2005.