Saturday, April 09, 2005

Recapping '05 and Lookin' Ahead -- Florida State

FSU was supposedly on the rise...they made the NIT in 2004, and coach Leonard Hamilton did a good job on the recruiting trail. But the Seminoles finished this season 12-19, 4-12. So now what?

The 'Noles had some pretty good wins (at Minnesooooota, vs. Wake, at NCSU) as well as some perplexing losses (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Florida International). The FIU loss followed back-to-back road wins against Minnesota and Ole Miss.

Adam Waleskowski and Anthony Richardson are graduating, while Von Wafer has inexplicably decided to enter the NBA draft. Wafer is a good shooter, but he doesn't provide much value elsewhere. It's impossible to know what behind-the-scenes issues are at work here...whatever the case, it's a shame that Wafer isn't likely to play another college game.

Here are the individual numbers from 2004-2005:


Seminoles 2004-2005
PlayerO Rtg% PossMin/GPPGFG%3FG%Floor %Pts Prod/GPPFGA
Von Wafer10922.7%26.112.543.7%39.6%0.4611.01.15
Al Thornton10726.1%189.154.3%28.6%0.548.51.13
Adam Waleskowski10321%21.78.449.2%42%0.477.91.19
Alexander Johnson8526.8%17.56.845.5%33.3%0.436.71.0
Anthony Richardson11519.9%15.66.450.8%32.6%0.536.11.22
Todd Galloway9416.5%25.96.143%35.8%0.416.81.11
Jason Rich9618.3%19.55.441%22.2%0.465.80.94
Isaiah Swann8224.6%16.55.241.7%33.3%0.375.61.04
Diego Romero10015.6%14.23.848.2%35.3%0.493.81.09
Andrew Wilson1149.5%213.535.4%35.5%0.453.81.04
Ralph Mims10418.6%9.22.834.8%25%0.473.00.98

Leonard Hamilton certainly spread the minutes around, but did he do so in the best interests of the team? It doesn't look that way.

Todd Galloway was second on the team in Min/G, I guess because Hamilton felt that was FSU's best option at the point. While Galloway did lead the team in assists (and had one of the few Assist:Turnover ratios on the team greater than 1.0), he was extremely turnover-prone. Galloway turned the ball over on nearly 33% of his individual possessions, which is awesome in a horrible sort of way. He also posted an ugly Offensive Rating despite using a below-average amount of the team's possessions.

It really hurt FSU's offense to have inefficient guys like Galloway, Johnson, Rich and Swann playing over 15 MPG each. Alexander Johnson's workload was obviously way too high. There aren't a lot of guys who should be taking 27% of a team's possessions, and Johnson definitely ain't one of those guys. Johnson turned the ball over a lot and didn't shoot very well whether it was in the post or at the free throw line.

Rich and Swann were freshmen, so the Seminoles can hopefully chalk up some of their offensive woes to inexperience. I don't think either of these guys should have played as much as they did.

I have one big question after perusing the numbers: Why the heck didn't Anthony Richardson play more?

One of the more efficient scorers on the team, Richardson's performance warranted more than a meager 16 minutes-per-game. Of the forwards in the above table, only Diego Romero received less playing time than Richardson. A regretful move on the part of Leonard Hamilton.

With Richardson and Wafer leaving, it's difficult to imagine better days in the immediate future for Florida State. FSU was a pretty good shooting team in '05, but it was hindered by a lot of turnovers and rather unimpressive offensive rebounding.

The turnovers will be an issue again next season. Galloway and the freshmen guards were error-prone, as was Alexander Johnson.

FSU will probably rely on Johnson to do more scoring in '06, so we'll see how that works out...

The team FG% is likely to slide next year, as departers Wafer, Waleskowski and Richardson had three of the four highest adjusted field goal percentages among Seminole regulars in 2005.

Sorry, 'Noles fans--I'm afraid it'll be another trip to the cellar in 2005-2006.