NCSU 82, UMD 63
From my game preview:
Maryland hasn't scored over 75 points on the road in conference play, and don't expect that to change tonight (if NC State keeps the pace at about 67 possessions and UMd hits their conference road average pts/possession, they'll score 62-63 points).
Call it baseless pessimism or whatever--I'm gonna go ahead and say that Maryland has a good shooting night and wins 74-66 (I'm usually wrong...no need to end that trend now).
Am I good or what? Completely ignoring my silly prediction for a second, I noted in the prior paragraph that if NCSU played to its average tempo (67 possessions) and Maryland played to its average conference road offensive efficiency, the Terps would score 62-63 points. And wouldn't you know it--that's exactly what happened.
The game had 66 possessions and Maryland scored 63 points, so they were actually a little above their conference road average (92.3 is their average; 95.5 was their mark in tonight's affair). NC State, on the other hand, utilized another great shooting night (the Terps have got to be wondering what they've done wrong against State this year) to reach an OFF EFF of 124.
We knew coming in that NCSU was the more efficient team offensively, but I think most people dismissed the possibility that the Pack could repeat its sparkling performance in College Park (I know I did). State's offensive efficiency was 127 in College Park (this is points-per-100-possessions, remember), so they very nearly matched that mark against the Terps in Raleigh. Talk about a pleasant surprise.
NCSU was a combined 25-56 (45%) from 3-point land in two games against Maryland. The Terps were a combined 10-30 (33%) in those two games.
As for the score prediction in the last paragraph of the preview, well...there's no defending that one. But I'll gladly admit my wrongness on this occasion.
Note also that UMd still hasn't scored over 75 points in an ACC road contest.