Sunday, January 23, 2005

Holy crap, dudes. NCSU 85, Maryland 69.

Box Score

According to my week-old ACC statistics, we could expect a few things coming into the NC State/Maryland game. Namely:

-- NC State would probably shoot a better adjusted field goal percentage than Maryland. NC State's season adjFG% is .525, while Maryland's is .506. Despite the gap, the teams rank sixth and seventh in the ACC, respectively.

-- Maryland would probably out-work NC State on the offensive glass. Maryland's OREB Rate is .374; NC State's is .353.

-- NC State would rely much more heavily on the 3-point shot (not that you need any statistics to know this). State's 3PA/FGA is .401 (1st ACC), while Maryland's is .257 (11th ACC)

So what happened?

-- NC State had a sparkling .586 adjFG%. On the flip side, Maryland shot an atrocious .456 (which was clearly the difference in the game). Not only did NC State shoot a higher percentage, they also had more attempts. The Pack scored 85 points in about 68 possessions, for an offensive efficiency rating of 125 (their season average is 112). Maryland scored 69 points on 68 possessions, giving them an efficiency rating of 102, which is right near their average.

-- Maryland beat NC State 11-9 on the offensive glass. Maryland's OREB Rate was .324; NC State's was .290. Both teams were below their averages, but the difference between the two schools in this game was hardly significant.

-- NC State's 3PA/FGA was .448; Maryland's was .333. More importantly for the Wolfpack, they hit 12-of-26 3-point attempts, while the Terps hit just 5-of-15.

-- NC State--the least turnover-prone team in the ACC--committed just 9 turnovers in 68 possessions, for an impressive turnover rate of 13.2%. Maryland (19 turnovers) had a horrid turnover rate--28%. This differential helped NC State attempt 13 more shots than Maryland. You gotta shoot to score, right?

-- Maryland did have a huge edge at the free throw line, racking up 41 attempts to NC State's 23.

Maryland FTA/FGA: .911
NC State FTA/FGA: .397

In the ideal NC State basketball game, this is exactly what happens: the Pack minimizes turnovers and hits a solid percentage from 2- and 3-point range. When they do that, they are extremely efficient, and as you can see, they're pretty damn good. When they don't, well, ...