Section Six

Section Six Is No More

2009-06-29T11:42:00.001-04:00

Today I bid farewell to Blogger. Please update your bookmarks and/or blogrolls: I've moved here. Other than the new address, nothing's changing. I promise to continue to support Macrowave awareness.

Take a few minutes to register and check out the new digs.

Nate Irving Injured In Car Accident

2009-06-28T13:40:00.002-04:00

N&O.

N.C. State linebacker Nate Irving is recovering after breaking his leg in a car accident.

Irving was expected to undergo surgery Sunday night at WakeMed Trauma Center in Raleigh, where he was hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries.

School officials said Irving suffered a broken leg and a collapsed lung in the car accident Saturday night. Coach Tom O'Brien said in a statement issued by the school that the team's thoughts and prayers were with Irving.

Searching For Breakout Guards

2009-06-26T17:11:00.000-04:00

I hadn't realized just how short on bonafides at the guard spot the league is until I read BJD's post on the subject earlier this week. I looked through the numbers from last year and didn't find much in the way of breakout indicators. Mediocre track records abound. Some thoughts on a few guys:

Javi Gonzalez: Perhaps the only thing that kept Javi--who doubled his per-minute point production in '09--from making a true leap last season was his turnover rate. He's a solid candidate if he can slice into that ugly 6 TOs/40 number. There is a red flag, though: his 59.3 eFG% (67.2% in league play). He's not gonna match that.

Ish Smith: Made strides last season, and his free throw shooting improved immensely, which is encouraging. But his ceiling is limited if he can't improve on his career 32.7 3FG%.

Maurice Miller: How you feel about Miller's breakout chances depends on how you interpret this:

         ORtg  %Shots  eFG%   FT%    2FG%   3FG%   Ast%   TO%    FTR
2008    109.1   17.9   52.6   80.2   47.1   39.7   28.2   24.8   58.7
2009     78.5   16.1   34.1   66.1   36.8   20.3   30.2   31.7   45.9

After a very nice freshman debut, Miller was supposed to be the guy at the point, but he went down with an injury early in the '09 season and his performance never recovered. So how much of the drop off can rightfully be attributed to the health issue? Which season is the more accurate reflection of his abilities? He'll bounce back to some extent--hard to imagine another 34% shooting year, health permitting--and considering how bad Iman Shumpert was, the door is open for him.

Wednesday Items

2009-06-24T13:28:00.004-04:00

-- Steve Spurrier Q&A from The State:

Q: Do you feel like in some ways your success is hitched to Garcia?

A: Dependent on Stephen, and all the coaches? Yeah, it’s dependent on all these guys. But like I’ve said, we just haven’t quite put the total team together yet. We’ve been competitive, but we haven’t put the total team together. We still obviously think we can do it, and (it’s) very encouraging that we had such a good recruiting class. All those guys stuck with us. And like I said, we all like each other right now. Hopefully, it’ll stay that way.

Q: That hasn’t always been the case?

A: Not always the case.

Q: You’ve said several times you had some guys last year that had one eye on the door.

A: Well, we had some of those guys and had some guys we’d always take on the trips. We knew they weren’t going to play. I don’t know how much they wanted to play. You know, you want to take the whole team that wants to come and compete. And if they don’t play, they’re cheering for their teammates and things like that. We just haven’t quite had that, so hopefully we can get it going that way.

Spurrier adds later that he thinks he's "got a team on the verge." On the verge of destruction at the hands of Russell Wilson, I think he's implying.

-- Bad news for Duke today, as Elliott Williams has announced that he intends to transfer closer to home.

-- David Aldridge picks Courtney Fells as one of his deep sleepers. (See #17.)

-- With the Titans' Kevin Mawae rehabbing an injury, former Wolfpack offensive lineman Leroy Harris has been getting all the reps with the first team.

-- "Three Dallas Cowboys sign heavy metal record deal." Can't say I ever saw that headline coming.

-- I'm beginning to worry that the football opener will be canceled, or at least postponed until we can figure out a way to dislodge the state of South Carolina from Bermuda.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

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Governor Mark Sanford Is Missing

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Jason Jones in Iran

In-State Recruiting Off To A Better Start

2009-06-24T00:34:00.001-04:00

Sammy Batten:

Creecy is the second player making a pledge to the Wolfpack's Class of 2010 who is regarded as the best in the state at his position. The two major recruiting networks, Rivals.com and Scout.com, both have Creecy and Chapel Hill offensive tackle Robert Crisp in their early list of the nation's Top 100 prospects. Crisp committed to N.C. State in April.

The impressive start is a contrast to a year ago when the Wolfpack didn't sign a single player ranked in the state's top 10 and had only three in the top 30 - linebacker Ricky Dowdy, quarterback Everett Proctor and defensive lineman Sylvester Crawford.

Auburn on the hoops schedule?

2009-06-19T17:27:00.000-04:00

Towards the end of this article, Tim Peeler mentions the Tigers as a possibility. I assume this potential game would be played in Raleigh since we probably don't want to add another tough road trip to the schedule at this point.

Also in the article:

There will be challenges of course. With so few proven three-point shooters on the Wolfpack, Smith is likely to be crowded on defense by opposing teams. Unlike last year, when he scored easily at times, he will be surrounded.

“He’ll have to continue to improve and get better,” Lowe said. “I think he’ll get through it because, one, we will teach him to get through it, and, two, his teammates will help him out."

And three: we'll have Tracy unleash his mid-range game. There will be no survivors.

Where will the Deacs land?

2009-06-19T15:01:00.000-04:00

Is Wake Forest headed for the bottom, or not? Let's take a look at some of their issues going forward...

                                  Wake Forest 08-09 (conf-only)
          Rtg (Rk)   eFG% (Rk)   TO% (Rk)   OR% (Rk)   FTR (Rk)   2FG% (Rk)   3FG% (Rk)
Offense   106.8 (5)   52.0 (2)    21.2 (8)   35.8 (5)   42.0 (1)   52.7 (1)    32.8 (10)
Defense   101.1 (3)   47.5 (2)    19.2 (7)   32.3 (1)   35.2 (6)   47.6 (5)    31.5 (1)

If Wake Forest does find its way down to the bottom third of the league standings, it's likely that the offense will be the culprit, as Jeff Teague and James Johnson were not only the team's highest-usage players but also its most efficient players. Teague was Wake's sole reliable outside shooter in 2009, and now that he's gone, that area appears all the more glaring a problem. LD Williams hasn't been an effective shooter since 2007, and Ish Smith, for all the improvement he showed last season, still lacks range. When it is even slightly possible that the departure of Harvey Hale--who was an outside threat only in the sense that he possessed the strength necessary to lob the ball 21 feet--might hurt, you've got problems. Incoming shooting guard CJ Harris may not be much help, as Scout.com lists perimeter shooting among his weaknesses.

But this is a team that, quite understandably, makes its living in the paint, and they attempt so few three-pointers that more sub-par production from outside probably won't be crippling. Al-Farouq Aminu and Chas McFarland were both reliable interior scorers, but that was with average workloads afforded them by the attention given to Teague and Johnson. It remains to be seen how they'll take to larger roles in the offense, though Aminu should be fine. Regardless, Wake Forest can't replace Johnson's 60% two-point shooting.

And what about the turnover rate now that Ish Smith is running the club full-time? Smith brought his TO% down to an acceptable level last season--it was easily the best mark of his career. Can he do that again?

At the defensive end, the Deacs used their considerable size to make shots difficult and second opportunities rare (relative to the rest of the ACC, anyway). Between Aminu, McFarland, and the additional services of noted tall guys Tony Woods, David Weaver, and Ty Walker, there's a good chance that continues. As long as it does, they'll be fine. But here, again, Johnson's absence looks like a big deal--he rebounded well and was arguably their most disruptive defender, if you buy the notion that block and steal rates reflect that sort of thing.

Just being tall isn't always good enough, though, as Sidney Lowe's last couple of teams have made painfully evident. Wake's interior defense showed some cracks down the stretch, and they were a few points per possession worse over the final month of the season. That slide culminated in a meltdown against Cleveland State in the NCAA tournament.

Wake Forest's overall performance in conference play wasn't quite as good as its results; they were just the fourth-best team in terms of efficiency margin. It's conceivable that the defense, which has a solid foundation but some uncertain new parts, declines a bit back toward league average, while the offense finds life much more difficult without Teague and Johnson. And if that's conceivable, so too is a bottom-third finish.

State/Tennessee Matchup Is Official

2009-06-18T15:37:00.002-04:00

NC State will open the 2012 football season in Atlanta against the Kiffin Family Circus.

"This matchup will continue the tradition of creating the Daytona 500 of college football," said Gary Stokan, Chick-fil-A Bowl president. "I fully expect that in 2012 both of these rising programs will be ranked in the top 20."

Although less than 300 miles apart, N.C. State and Tennessee have played just twice, the last time in 1939. The teams are 1-1 in those games.

"Atlanta is the perfect spot to host the first meeting between the teams in over 70 years," said Dave Brown, ESPN's vice president for programming. "A matchup of this caliber is another great way ... to usher in the first week of college football."

Tickets will be split evenly between N.C. State and Tennessee, and the game and its surrounding events will be managed by the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Scott Wood Injured? And Other Items

2009-06-16T14:21:00.003-04:00

-- I've been hesitating to mention this, as I've yet to find anything about this in the traditional places, but it appears that Scott Wood injured his knee in the first half of an all-star game on Sunday. This per a couple of people on Twitter (I know, I know. But one does work for a paper.). From The Anderson News's John Herndon:

10:16 to go in first, Indiana 15, Kentucky 10. Indiana's Scott Wood (NC State) just helped off the floor with a knee injury. Collided w/Hood

A bit later, from an IU blogger in attendance:

NC State signee Scott Wood back on IN bench. His left knee looks swollen.

That does not sound good. I still have no idea as to the extent of the injury, though.

(Wednesday Update: Wolfpack Hoops caught up with Wood, who said that the knee injury was not serious and that he'll be out a month at the most. Pending an MRI.)

-- The Charlotte Observer caught up with Russell Wilson, who is hitting .208/.345/.271 for the Gastonia Grizzlies.

-- JP Giglio takes another crack at predicting how the ACC basketball standings will look next season.

Painted No-Charge Arc Coming In 2011, Perhaps

2009-06-15T00:28:00.003-04:00

ACC Now:

One of the reasons the NCAA basketball playing rules committee last month didn't recommend a painted arc to go along with the new "no charge" zone under the basket for "help" defenders was because it could have taken four years to institute a new painted line.

But when the Playing Rules Oversight Panel approved the roughly-24-inch no-charge area earlier this month, it did something smart: It opened the door to quicker implementation of a painted semicircle, if one is ever recommended and approved by the membership.

The Oversight Panel agreed that if the committee opts next summer to suggest that the no-charge zone be painted, the markings won't need to go through an experimental stage in 2010-11. That could allow arcs to be added in 2011-12, when the next rule book is printed, said Ty Halpin, the NCAA's associate director of playing rules administration.

Previously the NCAA said that it could take four years to add the painted arc, thanks to a confluence of factors including dumbass bureaucracy, the need for an experimental trial run, and the fact that the NCAA rulebook is updated every two years.

I never understood why an experimental stage would be necessary in this case, because unlike, say, a change to the lane's dimensions or a change to the three-point line--modifications that could have significant effects on the way the game is played and thus require a wait-and-see period--the no-charge zone is less a fundamental modifier and more just routine maintenance. Not to mention a complete no-brainer.

It's encouraging that the rules committee seems to have reached this conclusion, but still frustrating that we're two years away at the earliest from seeing the arc implemented. Worse, we've got two years of the imaginary arc, two years of officials struggling to make a second judgment call on top of what's already a pretty damn tough original judgment call. My hope is that the imaginary arc goes the way of every other "point of emphasis"/"ineffectual crackdown"--officials pay extra attention at the outset before totally forgetting about it.

If there is a good thing about the imaginary no-charge zone, though, it's that we are a little bit closer to seeing Karl Hess's head literally explode on the court. Were his feet set? Was he in the imaginary arc zone? The fuck's the dimensions on that thing again? Shit. *kaboom*

Hoops To Play UNCG At The Gboro Coliseum

2009-06-12T14:41:00.003-04:00

From the News & Record (thanks to Dash for the tip):

Game times aren't set yet. Heck, game days aren't even a done deal.

But the UNCG men's basketball team will play a healthy non-conference schedule in its first season of home games at the Greensboro Coliseum.

Four ACC opponents — including two ranked in the final AP top 25 poll last season — are among six teams that will play non-conference games at the coliseum against the Spartans. No. 12 Wake Forest, No. 24 Clemson, N.C. State and Maryland will help break in UNCG's new home court. The Spartans also will play host to East Carolina and Princeton and play nine Southern Conference games at the coliseum.

I know a lot of folks are against these sorts of games, but I think this is shrewd scheduling on our part. State gets to play a team it should beat comfortably, in front of what is likely to be a pro-State crowd, and gets RPI credit for a road/semi-road game. That's a good deal.

One other quick item: if you've got 15 minutes to kill, check out this 2008 football highlight video.

Thursday Items

2009-06-11T19:12:00.000-04:00

-- Mary Easley was informed that she was let go because of "the recent economic downturn." Wink wink. YOU FOLLOWING ME, CAMERA GUY? In truth, my completely not bogus sources tell me, NCSU officials invoked university bylaw 12, section four, clause A-7, better known as the Holy Hot Goddamn This Here Is Some Shit clause. For obvious but regrettable legal reasons, that could not be publicized.

-- "Without my hair, what would I blow-dry?" Watch General Ray Odierno, who holds a masters in Nuclear Effects Engineering from NC State and is the Commanding General of Multi-National Force-Iraq, shave Stephen Colbert's head.

-- Nice article about Scott Wood from the Indy Star:

But the danger of labeling Wood as "a shooter" is to think of him only as a shooter.

"I've never coached anybody like him," said Joe Luce, Wood's high school coach. "He's the kind of kid you want to date your daughter because he's such a great kid, but there's a toughness about him you might not pick up on at first. He reminds me of a guy like (Purdue's) Robbie Hummel. He plays to win."

MLB Draft Complete (Updated)

2009-06-11T01:03:00.002-04:00

The first 30 rounds are in the books, and here's the damage:

Daniel Tuttle (RHP) -- 5th rd, Cincinnati Reds
Jimmy Gillheeney (LHP) -- 8th rd, Seattle Mariners
Dane Williams (RHP) -- 15th rd, Chicago White Sox
Sam Brown (RHP) -- 22nd rd, Texas Rangers
Marlon Mitchell (C) -- 27th rd, Philadelphia Phillies

Tuttle, Williams, and Mitchell are NC State signees.

I'm guessing Tuttle will go pro despite the Cincinnati/National League double whammy.

According to Future Sox, Dane Williams would have gone considerably higher but for signability issues. I get the sense that if the Sox are willing to shell out the six-figure signing bonus he wants, he'll go pro. Win-win for me, though.

As for Mitchell:

"Everything has to be right," said Mitchell, an N.C. State recruit who expressed similar sentiments as Lockwood and Taylor, both USF recruits. "I like my scholarship at N.C. State and the program there. I'm still negotiating, and I don't know yet. I think I'll know by the end of the summer, but hopefully sooner."

Update: Results from rounds 31-50...

John Lambert (LHP) -- 34th rd, Chicago Cubs
Daniel Canela (C) -- 37th rd, Detroit Tigers
Tarran Senay (OF) -- 38th rd, Detroit Tigers
Kyle Rutter (RHP) -- 41st rd, Boston Red Sox
Anthony Tzamtzis (RHP) -- 43rd rd, Houston Astros
Rey Cotilla (RHP) -- 48th rd, Milwaukee Brewers

Canela, Cotilla, Senay, and Tzamtzis are NC State signees.

Full draft results.

Oblinger, Easley Gone

2009-06-08T17:24:00.003-04:00

Oblinger resigns:

"I understand that the University will be making public today the documents that it is providing to the grand jury in connection with the federal investigation," Oblinger wrote. "A handful of those documents - all emails - indicate that I was made aware of Mrs. Easley's potential availability as a faculty member by [NCSU board of trustees chairman] McQueen Campbell in April 2005. I did not recall those communications until reviewing the emails last week. The emails themselves indicate that I referred the issue to the appropriate university officials and they indicate no impropriety in the process in which Mrs. Easley was hired to come to NC State from her previous position at North Carolina Central University at an increase in pay of $1,072.10."

Oblinger, like Nielsen, said the intense scrutiny was the reason he was quitting.

"I am doing so because that is what leaders do when the institutions they lead come under distracting and undue public scrutiny," he wrote in a resignation letter. "This is particularly true for leaders of public institutions like NC State."

Oblinger became chancellor right around the time I graduated from NC State and didn't leave much of an impression in the years that followed, except that he seemed weak and unfocused when compared to his predecessor. So these last few weeks have been revealing in more ways than one.

BOT terminates Easley's contract:

Easley's job title was executive in residence, given when former NCSU Provost Larry Nielsen retooled her post and gave her an 88 percent raise last summer.

The job was actually four part-time roles cobbled together. She was to create and direct a public safety center; run a speakers series, which she started in 2005; coordinate law-related academic programming; and teach half a class each semester.

Documents released today show that the job was orchestrated at the highest levels of state government, and included the direct involvement of then-Gov. Mike Easley.

E-mail messages show the creation of the job was orchestrated in April and May of 2005 by the governor and that her job formation involved the chancellor at N.C. State, James Oblinger, who resigned today; a key trustee, McQueen Campbell, who also has resigned from the board; a senior adviser to Easley who now heads the Golden Leaf Foundation, Dan Gerlach; and an NCSU lobbyist at the time, Andy Willis.

Friday Items

2009-06-05T17:23:00.004-04:00

-- The Shelby Star caught up with Sidney Lowe at the Coaches Caravan stop in Gastonia:

Q: What was the biggest surprise for you switching from coaching in the NBA to coaching in college?

A: "What surprised me more than anything is the extras that coaches have to deal with on this level. When I say the extras, I mean the extra people. When I played and came to school, it was me. That was it. My high school coach sent me off to school. My mom and dad sent me off to school. So the only person coach (Norm) Sloan and Coach V (Jim Valvano) had to deal with was me. Today, you've got to deal with a lot of people. Parents are much more involved now with their kids' careers than they were before. Our parents were excited about us going to college and playing basketball. It was a privilege to play, not something somebody owed us. Now, because of the coverage of the NBA, the parents and a lot of AAU coaches - not all, but some - are looking at these players as someone that's going to help them get to the next level. So there's a lot of pressure on these young men, who are trying to come in here to go to school in addition to having a coach outside of your college coach trying to tell you what to do and what's best for you. And in some cases, you get the heat from the parents as well. So that's the biggest difference for me."

Those could be veiled references to the Wall saga, Costner's old man, or neither.

-- The latest from Tim Peeler regarding the NCSU athletics history project.

-- This hit my email inbox yesterday:

Just for me. I'm big on the internet like that. Yes, I think I will feel the thunder.

*plays video*

Ooh, a Russell Wilson touchdown pass!

Thun! Der! duhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuh Thun! Der!

Wait a second.

Thun! Der! duhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuh Thun! Der!

No no no no. This is all wrong.

Thun! Der! duhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuhnuh Thun! Der!

This is a cruel joke. A cruel, cruel--wow, sweet kick return.

Enter some bogus info here and see the brief highlight video yourself.

-- Steve Hauschka is battling Graham Gano--among other things--for the kicking job in Baltimore.

-- Reading this post from Dr. Saturday, I couldn't help but recall the two-point conversion for the win at Syracuse, still one of my favorite Wolfpack football games of all-time. The image of Paul Pasqualoni jumping around, desperately hoping one of the Orangemen on the field would see he wants a timeout, is one I'll never forget. To this day, I wonder what the Syracuse special teams guys were thinking during that play. What the hell kind of extra point formation is this? Oh crap.

"There was no question in my mind about going for two at the end," said O'Cain, whose job was said to be in jeopardy. "In that kind of situation, you need to choose your opportunity. Their defense was reeling and had lost its confidence."

That NC State team finished the season 6-5 on the strength of a three-game winning streak, but O'Cain was reduced to pleading/begging for a bowl berth, because bowl games hadn't yet proliferated to the point of absurdity. Had circumstances been different, had they managed a bowl appearance that year, O'Cain would have been coming off of two consecutive bowl seasons rather than one in '99, the year of his dismissal. I wonder if that would've changed things. State's 6-6 record in '99 would've been good enough for a bowl game today, too. I don't regret the way it went down...it's just something terrifying to think about.

-- Billie Gillispie struggles with unemployment:

Billy Gillispie is back in his hometown of Graford, Texas, looking to buy a home in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, closing a sale on his Lexington abode, dealing with a lawsuit against his former employer Kentucky, mapping out his summer and fall plans and figuring out how to handle idle time that he hasn't had in his adult life.

"I've gone strong for a long time," Gillispie said. "I was a head coach in high school to a Division I coach, to a head Division I coach, and I got lucky, real lucky. It's amazing how quickly things happen. I never took a vacation. I'm not sure what to do with the down time."

As someone who has also recently earned some unrequested vacation time, Billy, let me help you out.

11:30 -- Wake up.
12:03 -- Pour first gin and tonic.
12:10 -- Should I put pants on?
12:12-7:15 -- It's whatever.
7:30 -- Decide to go out because it's Wednesday night but at the same time it's also Saturday night.
7:33 -- I should put pants on.

And so on and so forth.

Mildly Scandalous

2009-06-04T00:41:00.003-04:00

I suppose it's just years of on-the-record conditioning at work, but it's a bit disappointing that college coaches can't fully drop the gloves even when blessed with anonymity:

Boston College: "I think the offensive line has gone down every year since 2006, when I thought it was they were the best offensive line I'd seen. But they've deteriorated since then." -- An opposing ACC assistant coach.

It'd be funny if the unnamed assistant were NC State OL coach Don Horton, who coached BC's offensive line from 2003 to 2006.

Maryland: "They're probably one of the last teams in the ACC that really come off the ball and really try to get downhill and run the ball at you. But they don't scare me." –– An opposing ACC assistant coach.

I love the tone of this comment. Maryland football: how quaint!

The Columbus Dispatch: Secrecy 101

2009-06-02T14:32:00.002-04:00

The Family Eductational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), which was created to protect the privacy of students' academic records, has come to be interpreted broadly and inconsistently by the NCAA's various member institutions, as the Columbus Dispatch discovered in a six-month investigation (thanks to a reader for the tip):

Across the country, many major-college athletic departments keep their NCAA troubles secret behind a thick veil of black ink or Wite-Out.

Alabama. Cincinnati. Florida. Florida State. Ohio State. Oklahoma. Oregon State. Utah. They all censor information in the name of student privacy, invoking a 35-year-old federal law whose author says it has been twisted and misused by the universities.

Former U.S. Sen. James L. Buckley said it's time for Congress to rein in the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, which he crafted to keep academic records from public view.

A six-month Dispatch investigation found that FERPA, as it's commonly called, is a law with many conflicting interpretations. And that makes it virtually impossible to decipher what is going on inside a $5 billion college-sports world that is funded by fans, donors, alumni, television networks and, at most schools, taxpayers.

[snip]

The Dispatch learned of the wildly different legal interpretations by sending public-records requests for athletics-related documents to all 119 colleges in the Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A). The goal was to gauge their openness and use of the FERPA law.

The requests sought airplane flight manifests for football-team travel to road games; lists of people designated to receive athletes' complimentary admission to football games; football players' summer-employment documents; and reports of NCAA violations.

The records could help shed light on the inner workings of college-sports programs, including identifying the people who have access to athletes -- some of whom are boosters and agents who, if acting improperly, can bring shame and fines to an entire athletic department.

In some cases, documents were unobtainable because of substantial fees charged by schools. For example, Maryland wanted $35,330 to produce the same documents that more than half the schools provided free.

Of the 69 schools that provided information:

• More than 80 percent released unedited information from ticket lists.

• About half did not censor flight manifests.

• Twenty percent gave full information about summer jobs held by football players.

• Ten percent provided unedited NCAA violations.

Here's how the ACC's public institutions responded to the requests:

NC State: Refused to provide any information about flight manifests, complimentary tickets, or summer job forms. Provided info about NCAA infractions but blacked out names and details.

Clemson: Fully disclosed flight manifests, refused to provide information about complimentary tickets, provided summer job forms but blacked out the students' names, provided information about NCAA violations but black out the names of some students and non-students.

Florida State: Fully disclosed flight manifests and documentation regarding complimentary tickets. Provided summer job forms and information about NCAA violations, but blacked out names and details in both cases.

Georgia Tech: Fully disclosed flight manifests, documentation regarding complimentary tickets, and summer job forms. Provided NCAA violation info but blacked out the names of students and some non-students.

Maryland: Demanded a $35,330 fee from the Dispatch for the public records, which, obviously, the paper could not pay. Maryland was one of 14 institutions that charged significant fees for its documents, but the only one to ask for more than a grand.

North Carolina: One of 11 institutions that did not produce a single document in six months.

Virginia: Like Maryland, Virginia charged a fee that made the records unobtainable to the Dispatch.

Virginia Tech: Provided flight manifests and information about complimentary tickets but blacked out the names of student athletes in both cases. Refused to provide summer job forms. Provided info regarding NCAA violations but blacked out the names of students and some non students.

Here's a link to the Dispatch's database, which, in addition to the above, includes athletics revenues and expenses, graduation rates, and APR reports for each school.

From most transparent to least:

Open
Georgia Tech
Florida State

Fairly Open
Clemson
Virginia Tech

What Are You Looking At, Pal?
NC State

No Hablamos Ingles
North Carolina

A Pretense Of Openness
Virginia
Maryland

RBC Center Getting A Scoreboard Upgrade

2009-05-29T18:58:00.000-04:00

Canes Country:

In the May issue of The Wolfpacker, a publication that covers NC State sports, vice president and general manager of the RBC Center Dave Olsen confirmed that the arena would be installing a new scoreboard. The new board will be four-sided — as compared to the current eight-sided one — and "everything is HD and LED," Olsen told The Wolfpacker. Based on what was said before today's end-of-season press conferences, Bubba is reporting the new board installation will begin on June 1 and will be completed about June 18.

The scoreboard will be close in size to the current one — so it can fit in the current support structure — but the panels will be about six feet wider than the current one.

A Few Items

2009-05-29T17:18:00.001-04:00

-- From Northwestern's student newspaper comes this article about former Wolfpack baseball/basketball player Tim Stoddard:

There have been 71 winners of the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament since its inception in 1939 and 69 teams crowned World Series champions during that time span.

Only one player holds the distinction of winning one of each: Northwestern pitching coach Tim Stoddard.

Stoddard was the starting power forward for the 1973-74 North Carolina State team that won it all, and he came out of the bullpen for the Baltimore Orioles in their 1983 title season.

For the past 16 years, he has served alongside manager Paul Stevens in the Wildcats' dugout.

"Anybody who can play top-of-the-line college basketball and make it to the major leagues and pitch as well as Tim pitched at many different stops is a wonderful athlete," said current Chicago White Sox broadcaster Steve Stone, who was Stoddard's teammate for three seasons with the Orioles.

To win the national championship, N.C. State had to knock off UCLA, which had won the last seven NCAA tournaments. The Bruins were led by star center Bill Walton, and Stoddard was responsible for keeping him in check.

"I was big for that type of player," said the 6-foot-7 Stoddard. "I just used my strength to really try to keep him under control as much as I could. I tried to muscle him around."

-- The Fayetteville Observer's Dan Wiederer writes about the immediate pressure that will be facing Lorenzo Brown this winter:

A natural wing, he’ll also likely be asked to man the point guard position for significant chunks of time as the Pack continues its search for a reliable floor general.

“There’s going to be a tremendous pressure for Lorenzo to really emerge early — out of necessity,” said Dave Telep, the national recruiting director for Scout.com. “They need the minutes, they need the points out of him. And they’re probably going to need him to man a position that he’s still transitioning to.

“That’s a lot for a young guy to handle. Does he have the talent to handle that? Absolutely. But you better understand that there’s going to be a learning curve for a kid who’s a) learning the college game but b) learning to be a guy who’s asked to shoulder a whole lot for his team.”

-- Only one of NC State's three major sports finished above .500 this past year, no match for South Carolina's 3-for-3 effort, but I'm laughing at this anyway. If the N&O did something similar during the Fowler era, it would be construed as another move in the ongoing conspiracy to keep NC State's mediocre leadership in place. Those fears would be confirmed when an additional lifetime extension was promptly added to Lee Fowler's current deal, ensuring his role as Athletics Director well into the 22nd century, a tenure that would eventually be made possible thanks to advancements in robotics by NC State scientists.

"This here's a little ditty about Paul Derr Geodome locker room improvements."

Matt Hill Is NC State's Third Individual National Champ This Year

2009-05-29T02:11:00.002-04:00

GoPack:

When Hill finished his round at approximately 5 p.m. Thursday, there were three golfers early in their final rounds at even-par for the tournament. All three of those golfers would have to shoot a 65 or better to catch Hill.

If Hill's lead holds on for the victory, he would be NC State's third individual NCAA championship this spring and the 29th in school history. In March, wrestler Darrion Caldwell and platform diver Kristin Davies each won individual titles in their respective sports. It would be the first time with more than two individual titles in the same academic year since 1993 and only the third time in school history.

Done and done. Congrats, Matt. James has some more links.

That's not even a dance.

2009-05-28T18:40:00.003-04:00

Andre Brown participated in this rookie touchdown dance challenge thing (first prize: signed Michael Jordan jersey. Gross.); via FanHouse, here's the video:

I think the judges docked points from Andre because pretending the football has gone into cardiac arrest only makes conceptual sense in the CFL where they play with John Goodman-sized balls. Or at the end of a so-rare-as-to-be-understandably-shock-inducing Marcus Stone-led TD drive. Whoa, whoa, whoa, we just hit double digits. My heavens, I've got to sit down.

Indy Weekly: Keep Hillsborough Street Funky

2009-05-28T16:11:00.000-04:00

Hillsborough Street's facelift finally got underway earlier this month (schematics courtesy the Raleigh Planning Dept. via the Indy here, here, here), and the Independent Weekly has been running features on the street all week, including this outstanding examination of the thoroughfare's past and future:

It's not all tinsel and triumph on Hillsborough Street. It's also neglect, disjunction and the history of Raleigh, good, bad and whatever you'd like to make of the "Pink Panty," a strip club that operated not so long ago on Hillsborough Street across from the Christian Science Church.

Yes, Hillsborough Street had its decadent days, and a time before that when it was vintage, and a time since when it became the congested traffic mess it is today. Maybe it has a bright future.

Strike maybe. As we contemplate the construction destruction that has suddenly ripped into Hillsborough Street this month, consider that with the right mix of new and old, town and gown, sufficient density to support transit but not so much that it jams the neighborhoods and clears out the funk, Hillsborough Street can again be the place where Raleigh's disparate parts are joined in an authentic urban whole.

Lots of stuff in there that I never knew. There used to be a strip club on Hillsborough? And a group of bars with an illegal rooftop swimming pool? Not to mention a basketball team that actually won things. Man, they had all the fun back in the day.

Follow Matt Hill's Title Run

2009-05-27T18:54:00.000-04:00

After a slow start to today's second round dropped Matt Hill into a tie for sixth place, Hill rallied to shoot three-under over the last eight holes. He's back in a tie for first at -4 overall, and while he may not enter Thursday's final round in that position, he'll certainly be right in the thick of it. You can track his progress here.

Elsewhere, Clemson's Terrence Oglesby has decided that he wants to get paid:

Then came the news that blindsided Clemson coach Oliver Purnell on Tuesday morning when sophomore Terrence Oglesby informed him that he was leaving to play pro ball in either Italy or Spain.

[snip]

Oglesby, according to sources, is hoping to command somewhere in the vicinity of $500,000 per season. While money was a factor in Calathes' decision, Oglesby said the financial end was of no concern in his ultimate decision.

While he may have better served the Tigers by being more selective with his shots, he was nonetheless an efficient high-usage player in 2009, and those don't exactly grow on trees. How far can Trevor Booker carry the offense? Is Ray Dungeon ready to fulfill his destiny? Stay tuned.

Friday Items

2009-05-22T17:13:00.001-04:00

-- Here's a story about NC State's Logan Scarborough, who will be competing for a collegiate timbersports national championship:

As this year's wildcard selection, Scarborough will join the five conclave winners in Georgia to determine a national champion, who will earn a spot on the 2010 STIHL TIMBERSPORTS Professional Series.

I'm going to move on before I succumb to the temptation of a bad chopping wood joke.

-- Senior tennis player Jay Weinacker put together a nice run--one that earned him All-American honors--in the NCAAs before eventually falling in the round of 16.

-- Bradley Pierson has landed in Winnipeg. Bring back the Jets!

-- After a disastrous sports Thursday, I needed this. (ht: Gleeman)

Sack And TFL Rates

2009-05-21T12:53:00.000-04:00

Gobbler Country takes a look at sack and tackle for loss rates in conference play.

NC State defense:

1 sack per 21 opponent pass attempts (10th in ACC; league average: 1 sack/14.4 pass att)
1 TFL per 6.9 opponent rush attempts (4th in ACC; league average: 1 TFL/8.1 rush att)

NC State offense:

1 sack allowed per 11.3 pass attempts (9th in ACC; league average: 1/14.4)
1 TFL allowed per 12.6 rush attempts (2nd in ACC; league average: 1/8.1)

Correctly categorizing plays on which a sack occurred as pass plays rather than run plays, which GC does, removes some of the noise. But there's still the matter, especially in the Wolfpack's case, of QB rush attempts. Russell Wilson had 90+ carries in league play, and once you remove sacks from that figure, you've still got a bunch of carries that were a mix of pass plays and designed runs (20% designed runs, maybe?). Unfortunately, even with play-by-play data on hand, there's no way to tell which is which, though I think we can say generally that most of the time, Wilson's carries were making something out of a failed pass play.

(I'm not criticizing GC here, just lamenting the problem created by the lack of a simple notation next to each quarterback carry in the play-by-play.)

Considering that a dual threat QB uses his feet more frequently than a more traditional pocket passer does, it seems like the dual threat QB would create more inflation/deflation in the sack and TFL rates. In State's case, for example, the team had 265 carries (excluding sacks) in ACC play--more than a quarter of which were Wilson's. That's a fairly large amount of uncertainty.

Tuesday Items

2009-05-19T16:05:00.003-04:00

-- ESPN profiled Wolfpack baseball signee Tarran Senay, who is going to have to make a difficult decision in the next few weeks:

Senay is riding high these days. Rated the No. 86 prospect in the Class of 2009 by Baseball America, he is one of the fastest-rising MLB prospects in the nation. He has accepted a full scholarship to play at North Carolina State but is also projected as a first-day MLB Draft pick. The question is, what will Senay choose -- college or pro ball?

"I'm not leaning one way," says Senay, who projects as a power-hitting outfielder at the next level, no matter what that may be. "I'm leaning both ways. I would love to get drafted and play pro baseball. But at the same time I would like to go to N.C. State."

(Emphasis mine.) If Senay ends up in Raleigh, his raw power could be a huge boost to a team that slugged a meager .367 in conference play this year.

-- Speaking of baseball, there's one thing I've been wondering all year: where'd Dallas Poulk's power go? After hitting .286/.370/.446 with 8 homers and 20 total extra base hits in 2008, Poulk hit .262/.364/.316 with 0 homers and just 8 total extra base hits in 2009 (in a comparable number of plate appearances). He improved on his walk rate, which suggests he was able to maintain a disciplined approach and is reason enough not to panic, but he also posted the highest strikeout rate of his career.

-- John Wall finally decided on a school (Kentucky) today. You think he has this much trouble selecting a pair of pants in the morning?

Mrs. Wall: You heard about these Raleigh Denim jeans? I'd get with that trend before it blows up and becomes unbearable.

Brian Clifton: No, no, go with the sweat pants. Practical if not very sexy.

Dwon Clifton: Parachute pants, man. They're just crazy enough to work!

John Wall: The jorts with the 200 grand in the pockets it is!

-- Here's a recap of the latest Wolfpack caravan.

-- Football season tickets are now on sale to the general public.

-- I've collected the substitution data from most of last season's basketball games, so I think I'm going to give the +/- project another shot. I hope to have that done within the next month.

Matt Hill Wins NCAA Regional

2009-05-17T15:58:00.004-04:00

Hill, who even before this weekend had put together the best season by an NC State golfer in school history, keeps rolling:

Sophomore Matt Hill continued his winning ways, as he earned medalist honors at the 2009 NCAA Regional Championships, and has advanced to the 2009 NCAA Championships. Hill won his ACC record seventh tournament of the school year, and the sixth in the last seven tournaments overall.

Hill becomes the first golfer since Tim Clark did so in both 1996 and 1997 to win individual medallist honors at the NCAA Regionals. They are the only two Pack golfers to claim such honors as well.

The team, which entered the regional as the #3 seed, finished a disappointing sixth, so they will not play in the NCAA Championship. But Hill has a legitimate shot at becoming the ~~fourth~~ third NC State athlete to win a national title this year.

Update: The Hurricanes are the gift that keeps on giving:

Mainstream websites and newspapers don't spend much time on college golf, a niche within a niche sport, but every once in a while, something warrants attention, which is certainly the case with N.C. State's rising Matt Hill. Last week, he won the NCAA Central Regional and advanced to the nationals next week at Inverness Club in Ohio, where he will seek to win his seventh individual title in his past eight starts, an amazing run at any level. Hill, you might recall, was mentioned here a few weeks ago when he noted that he picked the N.C. State program because Raleigh had an NHL team and he's a native Canadian.

Play On!

2009-05-15T18:56:00.003-04:00

A gallon of victory beer and a late night trip to the airport makes for a long next day, but it was worth it. I got to RDU right as the players were beginning to file out, which led to the comedy that was me driving my hoopty by all the Canes fans, who waved at me as though I were one of the players.

I was looking around earlier, trying to figure out if there's ever been an instance where a team has won two game 7s on the road in one playoff run, and while I couldn't find an answer to that question, I did find this note about the improbability of the win in New Jersey:

In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2008 Finals, road teams trailing by one goal with 1:21 left in regulation had an 18-471 (.037) game record.

The Hurricanes didn't have to beat those kinds of odds last night, but it sure felt like they did.

Orlando Sentinel's Spring Prospectus: NC State

2009-05-14T17:22:00.002-04:00

Good assessment of the Wolfpack by the Orlando Sentinel's Andrew Carter, with an optimistic prediction:

Way too early 2009 prediction:
9-3 (5-3)
There’s a possibility the Pack could lose to either South Carolina or Pitt out of conference, but both of those games are at Carter-Finley Stadium, where State will be favored. Provided Russell Wilson stays healthy, the offense will be just fine and the defense returns every one of its most important players from a season ago. The 2009 season could – and probably should – be this program’s coming out party under O’Brien.

And for your amusement, see comment number two at the link.

Elsewhere, briefly: The Dagger's Eamonn Brennan evaluates the ACC's basketball coaches. He's way off on Al Skinner.

Deshawn Painter Commits

2009-05-13T23:35:00.004-04:00

Painter's Scout profile.

I'm feeling a lot better about the front court situation now:

"I just committed to NC State," said Painter. "I had a good feel for them. Sidney Lowe was big for me and I had a great vibe with the players. I just feel it was a great fit all the way around. It felt like home."

After taking visits to NC State, Virginia Tech, and Maryland, Painter narrowed it down to the Wolfpack and Terps before picking NC State.

Checking in at 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Painter has a chance to impact as a true freshman. He is currently rated the No. 20 power forward in the country and the No. 69 player overall in the 2009 class by Scout.com.

I also feel good about the fact that if you rearrange the letters in his name, it spells Pwned This Arena.

Here's a scouting report from Testudo Times:

Strengths: Painter is extremely athletic and has great leaping ability. Combined with his great length and wingspan, it makes him a great defensive threat and dunker. I've seen some insane dunks on his highlight reels. It also gives him a slight advantage in rebounding; he can leap above others to grab high rebounds. His midrange jumper is surprisingly good, going out to about 15 feet. He runs very well and is quick enough to guard the perimeter when pulled out on a pick and roll or run the floor. That he can run well is a nice bonus - that's a plus with Williams and Padgett as well, so hopefully we try to push the pace in the future.

Weaknesses: Painter is thin as a rail. That really hurts him down low and when rebounding. He's been able to get by in high school, but when he gets into the ACC, he'll see bigger, stronger defenders and will get pushed around down low. His post game isn't good enough to make up for a huge strength disadvantage, and neither is his rebounding ability. His frame has room for weight, though, so all is not lost. He just needs to have a lot of cheeseburgers and protein shakes, and get on a lifting program. Unfortunately, there are major concerns about his effort. During games, he's mostly consistent on defense contesting shots, but his effort tends to fluctuate in practice especially. He never really progressed the way he was supposed to, which is generally a sign of poor work ethic.

With luck, his length and athleticism will be enough to offset his thin frame and allow him to be a competent defensive rebounder.

Tuesday Items

2009-05-12T14:44:00.000-04:00

-- Giving some consolation to what is in all likelihood a lost season, the baseball team took two of three from UNC over the weekend, which kept their slim ACC tournament hopes alive. They'll need to sweep Clemson, have Carolina sweep Boston College, and have Virginia take a game from Virginia Tech.

In this piece by Tim Peeler, Elliott Avent offers a bit of coachspeak brilliance, and also points out all of the blown leads that have put the team in this difficult position:

“Momentum that isn’t used immediately seems to lose a little steam,” Avent said.

[snip]

“We had a 10-2 lead at Boston College and lost. We were ahead 7-0 at Duke on Sunday, and up 7-5 with two outs and two strikes on the hitter in the 10th inning, and lost. We had a 7-0 lead in our Sunday game against Miami, and lost."

The Sunday pitching has been a real bummer, but not so against the Heels, at least.

-- You should also check out this item from Peeler about saving all of the history that's being stored in Reynolds Coliseum.

This summer, with the help of Wolfpack football player Donald Bowens and athletics marketing intern Blake Scher, we’ll be uncovering, cleaning and, mostly importantly, saving all that we can. They’ve already gotten an education about the many hidden secrets of Reynolds Coliseum.

I hope one day to have many of those secrets included it in an NC State athletics museum.

We have talked with the folks at the Special Collections Division of the NC State Library about helping us preserve the most important stuff we find – after we save our own copies. The library already houses much of the historic files and film from years gone by. We are looking to convert the film from 16mm to a high-definition digital format that we can eventually use on GoPack.com or in video displays, if we can find the appropriate funding to make those costly conversions.

Very cool. And it'd be great if they could use some of it to beef up the various history sections on GoPack.com, which are terribly inadequate.

The university has tons of great stuff that people should be able to see. During my sophomore year, I wrote a paper about NC State basketball for one of my history classes and had the opportunity to look at the library's special collections--lots of old newspaper clippings, programs, photos, etc. Needless to say, that was the most fun I ever had writing a term paper.

-- DeShawn Painter is down to Maryland and NC State and could come to a decision in the next week.

Let the discomfort borne of expectations begin.

2009-05-07T12:50:00.003-04:00

ACC Now: Your Atlantic Division favorite:

Yeah, it's N.C. State.

The Wolfpack has the best quarterback in the conference, two NFL-level game-changers on defense and a smart coach.

Technically, State finished last in the division in '08 but it was only one game behind the winner (Boston College). All six teams finished either 5-3 or 4-4.

Expect the same competitiveness this season. Which means you pick the team with the best QB (his right knee willing)? And eight home games.

We aren't there yet from an overall talent standpoint, but I'm still having a hard time disagreeing with JP. Everybody's got flaws, but nobody else has the Russell Wilson trump card.

Pack's Spring Game Attendance 24th Highest Among BCS Schools

2009-05-06T13:20:00.001-04:00

Good summary from the Birmingham News:

The SEC accounted for 34 percent of the spring crowds among the BCS-affiliated conferences, up from 30 percent a year ago. The SEC averaged 37,936 fans per school, a 21 percent increase from last spring and more than 55 Division I-A schools averaged in 2008 regular-season attendance.

Behind the SEC in conference average were the Big Ten (30,117), Big 12 (20,449), ACC (14,715), Big East (10,130) and Pac-10 (7,842), which again finished last among BCS conferences and dropped slightly from last year.

Weather Is Latest Confirmed Member Of Anti-NCSU Conspiracy

2009-05-06T11:15:00.000-04:00

Lightning struck the bell tower on Tuesday night:

Lightning is believed to have damaged North Carolina State University's bell tower, which was surrounded with yellow police tape on Wednesday.

Pieces of granite littered the ground as one large piece of stone atop the tall tower teetered on the edge.

"And this here, sir, is the lightning button..."

David, Goliath, And The Full-Court Press

2009-05-05T14:31:00.004-04:00

Malcolm Gladwell's piece on the full-court press and other unconventional strategies is an interesting read, even if I don't agree with all of his conclusions. The portion about Rick Pitino is worth addressing:

Pitino became the head coach at Boston University in 1978, when he was twenty-five years old, and used the press to take the school to its first N.C.A.A. tournament appearance in twenty-four years. At his next head-coaching stop, Providence College, Pitino took over a team that had gone 11–20 the year before. The players were short and almost entirely devoid of talent—a carbon copy of the Fordham Rams. They pressed, and ended up one game away from playing for the national championship. At the University of Kentucky, in the mid-nineteen-nineties, Pitino took his team to the Final Four three times—and won a national championship—with full-court pressure, and then rode the full-court press back to the Final Four in 2005, as the coach at the University of Louisville. This year, his Louisville team entered the N.C.A.A. tournament ranked No. 1 in the land. College coaches of Pitino’s calibre typically have had numerous players who have gone on to be bona-fide all-stars at the professional level. In his many years of coaching, Pitino has had one, Antoine Walker. It doesn’t matter. Every year, he racks up more and more victories.

The bit about Antoine Walker is disingenuous, since Gladwell seems to be suggesting that Pitino has been overachieving with modest talent thanks to the press. But I don't think it's arguable that Pitino has wanted for great college basketball players.

The press is a risky strategy, one that leads to higher variance from game to game; i.e., greater inconsistency. As Dean Oliver notes in Basketball on Paper, inconsistency is both good and bad:

What this means for good teams is that, if they are inconsistent, they win less than they should. What this means for bad teams is that, if they are inconsistent, they win more than they should. In other words, being inconsistent brings a team toward .500, toward mediocrity.

You need that variability if you're the underdog, but not so much if you're the favorite and risks aren't necessary because the you've got the edge in talent.

That gets us back to Pitino's Kentucky teams, which were very good but inconsistent because of risky strategy. Oliver again:

The University of Kentucky under Rick Pitino played a lot of high-risk strategies, pressing and shooting threes. They offset that tendency somewhat with a faster pace to take advantage of their tremendous talent. Their "riskiest" year was 1995, when their overall point spread standard deviation was about eighteen. Despite outscoring opponents by a mammoth eighteen points per game, the team lost five games overall and didn't make it to the Final Four despite a roster that included Tony Delk, Walter McCarty, Rodrick Rhodes, and a young Antoine Walker. In other seasons in Pitino's era, Kentucky played it a bit safer, with point spread standard deviations around fourteen. If Pitino's 1995 club, which was a general "favorite" and not an "underdog," hadn't been such a high variance one, they could have added another 6 percent to their winning percentage. Rather than 28-5, they might have been 30-3 and still alive in the Final Four.

It's possible that Pitino's success at UK came in spite of the press.

As far as optimal use of the press goes, I think Gary Williams has it right. They practice it to the point where they can use it effectively, but they are not defined by it, nor do they only pull it out only in desperate late-game situations. Middle-of-the-road programs like Maryland find themselves as both clear underdogs and clear favorites in a given season, so it makes sense to make part-time use of a risky strategy like the press.

(As a side note, it's worth pointing out that shooting a lot of threes and slowing the pace are also strategies that Oliver calls risky. And that's why Herb Sendek's Princeton hybrid was simultaneously both a stroke of genius and an exercise in self-limitation. I think it was despised more because it was an open admission of inferiority--he had to play in an unconventional way to have a chance against the league's elite--than because it wasn't fun to watch. That's an ugly truth, made more difficult to stomach by a decade of futility, and the offense served only to reinforce it game after game.

The problem was, that system was an ingrained identity, much moreso than something like a press that you can pull or put back in your pocket as need be, so it wasn't very situationally flexible. In the cases where it would have made sense to play conventionally, we didn't have that option. Sendek's teams often won fewer games than their pythagorean winning percentage suggested they should have, and the high-risk strategy was a big reason why.)

Thursday Items

2009-04-30T18:00:00.000-04:00

-- I'd quote an excerpt from this Kellie Harper story, but I don't want the AP's goons on my case.

-- Apparently not even the state legislature is above taking shots at Duke.

-- Ryan Harrow has been re-evaluated by Scout and is now listed as the #50 player in the class of 2010.

-- Here's a brief assessment from a guy who's seen Jordan Vandenberg in person. This is something I'd normally ignore, but shit, man, it's April.

-- Great moments in Australian football marketing.

!!!...

2009-04-29T02:04:00.004-04:00

At some point last night, right about the stage where I think everyone in the bar was beginning to accept the inevitability of defeat, one of my friends said, "sometimes I wish I didn't like sports." "Me too," I said, wondering as I do all too frequently why I put myself through stuff like this. More often than not, the games that bring about that sort of sentiment end badly.

But there are those rare occasions, like last night, where despair becomes joyous surprise in a flash, and then before I've even had a chance to catch my breath and sit back down, there is more good fortune and the surreal shock that comes with it, and I'm hugging and high-fiving people I've never met.

Oh yeah. This is why.

[Photo: Getty Images]

Pack Adds Vandenberg

2009-04-27T12:42:00.000-04:00

"Eh, mates! What's the good word?"

Jordan Vandenberg, a seven-footer from Australia, committed to NC State over the weekend. His addition makes next year's front court situation appear a bit less frightening. It may be that he isn't ready to contribute much at the offensive end next season, and that's okay, because what we really need from him is defense. If he can disrupt shots in the paint and rebound well at that end, he'll be a valuable member of the lineup regardless of what he does offensively.

Vandenberg's commitment means that Nevada's recent trip to Australia was all for naught. That's what you get, you thieving thieves!

Wolfpack Hoops has more.

Quickly:

The Technician's departing sports editor takes one final shot at Charita Stubbs:

Coaches: if you are looking for success, please follow volleyball coach Charita Stubbs’ three step plan for establishing a winning program and building fan support.

1. Demonstrate unflinching excellence on the court. In three years with the Wolfpack, Stubbs has accumulated a 3-61 record in the ACC and a 14-84 record overall.

2. Respond to criticism in a professional, mature manner. On Oct. 14, Technician ran an editorial cartoon complimenting Stubbs’ first ACC wins in a backhanded manner. Stubbs, a black woman, felt the cartoon was directed at her race rather than her performance as a coach.

Stubbs responded to the Oct. 14 piece by refusing to comment to Technician reporters, demanding a front page apology and talking to seemingly everyone about the cartoon except the Technician staff. Repeated invitations to Stubbs to come to our office and discuss the issue in an open forum were left unanswered, and what could have been a learning experience for everyone involved developed into a bitter standoff.

Personally, I don’t think there was anything racist about the cartoon, but I will invite anyone interested to make up their own mind. Search “stubbs cartoon” on Technician’s Web site and see for yourself.

3. Create strong student and fan support by alienating the student newspaper. Stubbs understands that the best way to put out the word about her blossoming volleyball program is to refuse to talk to the only media outlet that will ever regularly cover N.C. State volleyball. She has not allowed any interviews with Technician reporters since the cartoon ran Oct. 14 (She has also not won any matches since that date.)

Oooh, burn.

Speaking of parting shots, this is probably not how you want to go out. "Explicative" removed?

Hill, Brown Selected In 4th Round Of NFL Draft

2009-04-26T14:41:00.003-04:00

Anthony Hill joins Mario Williams in Houston, while Andre Brown is off to New York to play for the Giants. That's a steal for the Giants and a pretty good situation for Andre.

Lowe Will Tell Flip Saunders No Thank You

2009-04-23T17:58:00.003-04:00

From Andy Katz:

"I know I'm going to get the phone call," Lowe said. "But this is where I am. [Saunders] is not the only one who is going to call. One has already called. But there's so much here. I love working with young men, teaching them and preparing them for the world."

Lowe said he received another year on his contract so that means he has four years left on the original six-year contract with the Wolfpack.

"Flip is my guy but I've got a contract here and this is my first time really starting over here," Lowe said. "We've got a great opportunity now and we're moving in the right direction."

Think he'll change his mind if this upcoming season goes poorly?

Also in that post, a tidbit about the schedule:

Lowe is trying to upgrade the schedule. The Wolfpack host Florida in a return of a home-and-home series and do return a game at rebuilding Marquette and start a series at Arizona, which is going through a makeover project. Even though two of these three schools likely aren't headed for the NCAA tournament, the Pack need confidence early before ACC play begins. Lowe said he is also committing to the inaugural Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu in December with headline teams USC and UNLV.

Other teams that may be in the tournament field: Saint Mary's, Georgia, College of Charleston, and Hawaii. (Update: State's not going to Hawaii after all.)

Florida, Marquette, Arizona, Northwestern, Rutgers, ~~plus the tournament in Honolulu~~--that's a significantly improved OOC slate. One that--if we have any sort of success--should put us in good shape with the RPI heading into conference play.

A few more quick items:

-- Q&A with Kellie Harper. Harper says that as of right now, no one is planning to transfer.

-- Coming soon.

-- This is interesting: representatives from the Raleigh-Durham market "have requested to be considered as [World Cup] hosts in 2018 or 2022." World Cup soccer at Carter-Finley? (hat tip: Soccer Insider) (Update: more on this from the N&O)

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Pairings Announced

2009-04-22T12:29:00.000-04:00

NC State will host Northwestern and perhaps another ice storm.

Nov. 30
Penn State at Virginia

Dec. 1
Maryland at Indiana
Michigan State at North Carolina
Northwestern at N.C. State
Virginia Tech at Iowa
Wake Forest at Purdue

Dec. 2
Boston College at Michigan
Duke at Wisconsin
Florida State at Ohio State
Illinois at Clemson
Minnesota at Miami

Led by Kevin Coble, the Wildcats were pretty good at the offensive end last season, though nonetheless dreadful to watch.

So that was awesome.

2009-04-22T12:07:00.000-04:00

I remember glancing up at the clock as the puck was passed along the point, seeing two seconds remaining, and thinking there was no way, even if the shot went in. I didn't really celebrate when it actually did go in, because no way, right? But then:

Holycrapholycrapholycrap. *high fives entire section*

Baseball Is Just About Toast

2009-04-20T17:57:00.000-04:00

Florida State outscored the Wolfpack 25-7 over the weekend en route to a three-game sweep that dropped the Pack to 7-14 in conference play. With just nine to play, they're a full three games behind 8th place Duke, so their ACC tournament odds are pretty dismal. They probably need to finish 7-2 or 8-1, and they'll have to do it against Virginia, UNC, and Clemson. Yeah, that's not happening.

A brief summary of what's gone wrong:

Hitting: NC State hit .301/.389/.483 in conference play last season, averaging seven runs per game. They're hitting .255/.363/.367 so far this year, averaging six runs per game. That's a 140-point drop in OPS. They've done a better job drawing walks in 2009, but they're striking out more frequently and hitting for considerably less power (2.5 fewer extra base hits per 100 plate appearances).

Pitching: The number of extra base hits allowed by the Pack is comparable to last season, but that's about the extent of the good news. The staff's K/9IP has declined from 8.3 to 7.8, while its walk rate has soared from 3.3 BB/9 to 4.7. A bad combination, that. Making matters worse, opponents are batting .337 on balls hit in play, compared to .309 last season.

Wilson, Glennon Shine In Front Of Record Crowd

2009-04-18T18:19:00.002-04:00

Spring Game Photos
Recap

Edited to add wolfonthehill's Spring Game Photos

(Click to enlarge.)

Great job today, Wolfpack fans. More than 21,000 people turned out--which I'm just going to assume is the biggest spring game crowd in school history--and raised more than $28,000 for the Kay Yow/WBCA Cancer Fund. (That was the unofficial cash tally announced before I left, and they were still counting.)

Both Russell Wilson and Mike Glennon looked sharp, reiterating what we already know: they're pretty damn good. They threw into coverage a few times but generally made good decisions all afternoon and managed to avoid any big mistakes--always an encouraging sign. Their play made for a game that felt much tidier; Tom O'Brien has said all spring that this team is way ahead of where it was at this time in years past, and it certainly looked that way this afternoon.

         Comp   Att   Yds    TD  INT   Comp%  Yds/Att
Wilson    10    14    195    1    0    71.4    13.9
Glennon   24    38    272    1    0    63.2     7.2

The offensive line's struggles and the team's inability to produce on the ground were a couple of the well-documented concerns on display. The OL had a difficult time dealing with the blitz, and while the RBs had a few nice runs, there wasn't a lot to be had overall. But I think that says as much about the improvement of the defense's front seven as it does about those offensive shortcomings. Or at least I hope so.

Jarvis Williams and Owen Spencer each finished with 90+ receiving yards, and Spencer's 65-yard TD grab was the highlight of the day. Tight ends George Bryan and Mario Carter stood out as well. Carter led all receivers with six receptions.

Spring Game Notes

2009-04-16T15:08:00.002-04:00

Wooooooooo football woooooooooo.

Because Saturday will mark the last day that the field will be used for football, head coach Tom O’Brien wanted fans to be able to come down to the field for pictures, so he decided to move the postgame ‘Meet and Greet’ session with the team down to the field level.

“We wanted the kids to be able to run around on the field and see the stadium from the players’ and coaches’ perspective,” he said. “I have a feeling there might be some older ‘kids’ who might want to come down as well, so the whole team will be down there following the game to meet the fans.”

Game starts at 1 PM. I'll have some thoughts and photos posted here afterward.

Two other quick items:

-- All Access Football interviews Willie Young.

-- What was once Damon's is now the Backyard Bistro. It'll be open on Saturday. (Thanks to @mync for the heads up.)

Kellie Harper And Etc.

2009-04-15T14:32:00.004-04:00

-- I'm late to the party, but just in case you have not yet heard, all signs point to Kellie Harper being named the next women's basketball coach at NC State. She met with her team late Tuesday night, and an official announcement from NCSU should come Thursday or Friday. (Update: press conference scheduled for 4:30PM Thursday.)

All of which brings us to the inevitable (argh) "right fit?" article.

There are published reports that athletic director Lee Fowler is not going to honor Yow's wishes, a baffling decision if it is accurate.

Let's face it; this is women's basketball we're talking about. Football and men's basketball demands success without sentiment, and an AD has to make coaching choices that affect millions in revenues and soothing the passions of tens of thousands of supporters.

But when Yow from virtually her deathbed asks for a favor based on her 34 years of service and nearly 700 wins at N.C. State, that wish should be granted unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise.

Enter Harper, who could be walking into a position where anger, hurt and disappointment may prevent full support from the Wolfpack faithful.

So much wrong in so few words. Kudos, sir.

Sylvia Hatchell, Joanne McCallie, whoever the hell coaches at Wake Forest: this is a peek at your future:

Oh it's on now. PAIN TRAIN.

Elsewhere...

-- Pack Pride has some quotes from TOB's Tuesday press conference. Also: TOB talks to Dave Glenn, Heather Dinich. He told Glenn that he's still a year or two away from having the kinds of offensive lines he had at Boston College. Which is to say that Chuck Amato left one hell of a mess there.

-- David Cutcliffe is VERY EXCITED!!!!! about Duke's spring game.

-- You might be interested in following this Twitter account. Hopefully they'll keep the practice updates coming.

-- Please let this happen. While the possibility he actually gets to play is remote, this news at least makes visualizing him getting mauled by a defensive end that much easier.

Harper Interviewed For The NC State Job

2009-04-13T19:03:00.002-04:00

Just in from the Asheville Citizen-Times:

Western Carolina athletic director Chip Smith told the Citizen-Times today that women’s basketball coach Kellie Harper has interviewed for the N.C. State job.

Smith said N.C. State athletic director Lee Fowler called him to ask permission to speak with Harper. Smith also said Harper told him she had interviewed and is keeping him abreast of details as they develop.

Monday Items

2009-04-13T13:20:00.000-04:00

-- Per this report, NC State plans to hire Kellie Harper as its new women's basketball coach.

BasketballScoop has learned that NC State plans to hire Kellie Harper as their new head coach. We expect an announcement early this week. Harper has been the head coach at Western Carolina for the past 5 seasons, accumulating a 97-65 record over that time.

The Hartford Courant's John Altavilla also suggested yesterday that Harper is the leading candidate.

-- Caught this while I was scanning through the news:

Coach Charita Stubbs refused to comment following the tournament.

"As long as I'm at N.C. State, you guys are never talking to me again," Stubbs said.

Stubbs has not spoken to Technician since mid-October due to an editorial cartoon about the volleyball team which ran Oct. 14.

I hope she eventually changes her mind about that since the Technician is pretty much the only local media outlet willing to give her team some ink. See the cartoon in question right here.

-- The baseball team desperately needed to take two-of-three from Boston College and Duke these past two weekends, and they put themselves in position to do just that but blew the Sunday rubber match in both cases. BC rallied from a 10-2 deficit to take game three and the series last Sunday; yesterday, Duke scored three in the bottom of the 10th inning to win 8-7 and take the series. State now sits in 10th place in the ACC, a full two games behind 8th-place Duke, which, obviously, holds the tie-breaker. They have to claw back into that #8 spot just to make the ACC tournament, and they'll have to do it by going through Florida State, UNC, Virginia, and Clemson--four of the seven teams with winning records in conference play.

-- If you missed it, check out the highlights from the NCAA hockey championship game.

Glance Won't Be The Next Women's Hoops Coach

2009-04-09T16:24:00.001-04:00

Considering how they've conducted the search, I think NC State athletics officials have been hinting at this from the get-go. Stephanie Glance will not be the head coach:

N.C. State has decided not to promote Stephanie Glance to the position of head women’s basketball coach, WRAL has learned from a source in the Wolfpack athletics office.

Glance served as coach Kay Yow’s top assistant and was named interim coach after Yow could not continue as coach. She continued to coach the team after Yow died.

Glance had expressed strong interest in the position and Yow pushed to have her named. Glance was out of the office Thursday afternoon and could not be reached for comment.

Wolfpack athletics director Lee Fowler was travelling and could not be Thursday afternoon. Fowler has told WRAL he expected to make a decision by the middle of April.

A completely fresh start for the program is the right move, in my opinion.

The Good Times

2009-04-08T20:02:00.000-04:00

gogoraleigh's list of the best moments in RBC Center history got me thinking about the best Wolfpack moments in the new arena. Here are a few:

NC State 67, Georgia 63 (11/19/99) [recap]

It's difficult to remember or imagine now, nearly ten years later (good god), but man, that was an exciting time to be a Wolfpack basketball fan. Especially so for 16-year-old me, as I had little to no recollection of State hoops prior to the Sendek era. Here, finally, with a brand new arena and future superstud (surely!) Damien Wilkins suiting up for the first time, we were turning the corner. My dad went so far as to suggest we'd have a top ten program by the time I enrolled a couple years later. I couldn't fathom that. (And unfortunately, I still can't. New plan: top ten by the time I'm 40. Plan to be revised as necessary.)

Neither Wilkins nor the team had an impressive debut (I believe it was the first time Wilkins showcased his dribble-off-the-shin move to the basket), but both of those omens were forgotten when Archie Miller drained a three from the corner with less than a minute to go to give NC State the lead for good.

NC State 98, North Carolina 76 (2/24/02) [recap/box]

(Yes, the student tickets were green for some reason. And sometimes yellow.)

         Pts   Poss   Off_Eff   eFG%    TO%     OR%     FTR
UNC      76    75.8    100.3    52.6    18.5    18.2    36.2
NCSU     98    75.8    129.3    56.7    10.6    28.6    61.7

The Pack had already dispatched the Heels with ease in Chapel Hill, so I doubt many folks expected them to give us any trouble in Raleigh. Yep, just another day of entertainment and sports. Says so right in the name. But Carolina had other ideas; namely, to not be terrible at doing basketball-type things. They were surprisingly sharp in that first half and used some hot shooting to build a 10-point halftime lead. I don't remember feeling a sense of dread at that point--just shock.

While I was still trying to figure out what the hell happened, State went on a 20-5 run to start the second half. The scoring went back and forth for a while, and UNC actually held a 68-66 lead with about eight and a half minutes to go. Those last eight minutes, though... I've never seen anything like it. They put Carolina away by scoring on eight consective possessions, ultimately burying the Heels under a 32-point onslaught. The final tally: 98 points, 62 of which came in the second half, and a deceptively comfortable-looking margin of victory. En route to those 62 second-half points, the Wolfpack shot 69% (eFG) from the field and made 22 of 26 (84.6%) free throw attempts. Unreal.

NC State 80, Duke 71 (1/22/03) [recap/box]

Like most Wolfpack fans, I'm not one to tempt fate, because if I've learned one thing over the years, it's not to give that cruel bastard an opening. What's that? Is that hope you got there, son? WELL HERE'S A FUCKING BIZARRE PALMING CALL ON JUSTIN GAINEY JUST FOR YOU. I CAN DO THIS SHIT ALL CENTURY. NOW GET THEE BACK TO SULKSVILLE.

With the good guys in control late, victory looked like a pretty safe bet, and it was clear that a court-storming was in order. It was my first chance to do it and I didn't know if I'd ever get another opportunity, so I left my upper deck seat early, made my way to one of the lower level section entrances, and waited. I was probably one of the last students to make it onto the court once the buzzer sounded, but that didn't matter.

Clifford Crawford had endured more than half of North Carolina State's 13-game losing streak against No. 3 Duke, so the senior wasn't about to let go of the game ball in the locker room.

Crawford scored 21 points and Julius Hodge added 18 as the Wolfpack snapped its five-year skid against the Blue Devils with an 80-71 victory Wednesday night.

"I am just going to keep this with me," Crawford said as he hugged the ball. "I might even sleep with this tonight."

NC State 73, Wake Forest 68 (2/4/04) [recap/box]

Wake led by as many as 18 points in the first half, 16 at the break. But they went cold in the second and the Pack slowly got back into the game, eventually tying it with about five minutes to go. This was one of those times where the outcome never felt like it was in doubt, despite the fact that it appeared very much so, what with the score being tied and all that. When Marcus Melvin fired up a three that would give them a four-point lead with 30 seconds to go, my only thought was of course this is going in. That's the kind of foreign sensation you don't forget. Usually it's the other team doing the shooting when I have that thought.

That was probably the most fun I've ever had at a basketball game. We celebrated at Reynolds for hours afterward.

Good news, everyone!

2009-04-08T00:47:00.002-04:00

No, really--good news.

(Also: 9-0!)

Opening Day

2009-04-06T12:12:00.001-04:00

The weather in Chicago (wet, windy, temps in the 30s--sounds about right) will prevent the White Sox from kicking off their season today, but nonetheless, party on. I'll be looking forward to King Felix vs. Francisco Liriano tonight instead.

A couple of quick baseball items:

-- Good read from Joe Posnanski on Zach Greinke here.

-- Meet Stephen Strasburg, the likely number one pick in this year's draft. His fastball touches triple digits, and if his numbers are any indication (94 Ks in 48.3 IP; 17.5 K/9), he is freakishly talented. His "adviser"/soon-to-be-agent (I'll give you one guess who) is looking for $50 million.

For whatever it's worth...

2009-04-03T17:17:00.001-04:00

From a WRAL story on the women's basketball coaching search:

N.C. State athletics director Lee Fowler said Friday he has interviewed Stephanie Glance and others and expects to have a women’s coach hired by the middle of April.

And, by the way, Fowler plans to be at N.C. State then – and beyond.

A rumor making the rounds this week had N.C. State on the brink of a major athletics department shakeup. But university spokesman Keith Nichols said there had been no special meeting of the Board of Trustees, and Fowler said he wasn’t on the brink of leaving the school.

“I’m still here,” he said. “I’ve got a contract through October of 2013.”

Fowler said he had heard the rumor, but assumed it was an April Fool’s joke that had taken off on the Internet.

Football scrimmage and etc.

2009-04-03T14:37:00.000-04:00

-- Audio of TOB's post-scrimmage press conference is available here. If the scrimmage stats are any indication, Russell Wilson has retained the awesome he found last season, which is good. Not that I was concerned. He and Glennon combined to throw for 312 yards on 31 attempts, which is either encouraging (10 YPA yay quarterbacks) or worrisome (secondary oh noes) depending on how you want to look at it.

-- The Charlotte Observer's Scott Fowler examines the legend of David Thompson. Never knew DT couldn't palm a basketball. Also, I wonder if there's any footage somewhere of that dunk against UNCC.

-- Not surprisingly, there's someone who doesn't think Tony Bennett's system fits in the ACC. By the way, I've about had it with the phrase "a good fit." At least when it comes to coaching carousel articles. See:

Calipari a Good Fit to Coach Kentucky
Calipari good fit
Cal And the Cats: A Good Fit?
New Slacks A Good Fit For Calipari

Dare to dream.

2009-04-03T14:07:00.001-04:00

The internet threatens to take what's left of my sanity.

Reshuffling

2009-04-02T00:13:00.002-04:00

-- With Calipari officially off to Lexington, John Wall says he does not have a leader right now, while DeMarcus Cousins said yesterday that he's going to "start over." (Though there is a rumor from tonight's McD's AA game that Cousins said he was leaning towards Kentucky.) This video will give you a good idea of the media frenzy that's surrounded both Cousins and Xavier Henry.

-- Wolfpack Hoops interviews Scott Wood here. Wood reveals that he's planning on majoring in civil engineering, and he's already using "we" when he talks about the Pack. I think I'm going to like this kid.

-- Some spring football notes from Ken Tysiac.

Man, sorry about that.

2009-04-02T00:05:00.000-04:00

See what I put up with at family get-togethers? You're cut off forever, cousin Jackie Ray.

toonces

2009-04-01T00:09:00.000-04:00

this occurred to me the other day when i heard that state is looking for a new womens basketball coach which means that lee fowler is doing his thing. now i heard they formed a search committee thats fairly sizeable in order to minimize his overall impact but come on people we know whats gonna happen and so does states shit ass administration. partly cloudy skies with a hundred percent chance of fail.

lee fowler is like toonces the cat that could drive and their administration is like those idiots that let him keep getting behind the wheel time after time despite newsflash hes going to crash the fucking car again.

toonces look out!!!!!!!!!!!!!! boom explosion herb vote of confidence. toonces look out!!!!!!!!!!!!! boom explosion lets have more chuck amato. toonces look out!!!!!!!!!!! boom explosion sidney lowe. hahahahaha you suck state.

We have been zinged.

2009-03-31T16:19:00.002-04:00

Tom Sorensen:

How many teams do you despise? I know that some of you despise the basketball team at North Carolina or Duke, and if you're an N.C. State fan, you despise North Carolina, Duke and N.C. State.

Well, you're spent. How about a mother's basement joke?

Others despise everything. I know because you send me e-mail. You even despise your parents for charging you to live in their basement. Hey, lots of 34-year-olds live in their parents' basement, especially in this economy. But most of them at least moved out before moving back. Dude, you've been down there since your second sophomore year of high school.

Groan. I'll just quote FJM here:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT THAT WAS AWESOME!!!!!

In his mother's basement!!!!!

In his fucking mother's fucking basement!

Holy shit.

Holy shit, you guys.

In his mother's basement!

Boooooooooo-ya!

In his mother's basement.

He fucking nailed it, you guys.

Nailed it. Jesus.

Man. Okay. Just...that was awesome, is all. Awesome.

Checking In On Baseball

2009-03-31T14:58:00.002-04:00

Elliott Avent's young team is off to a modest 15-12 (5-7) start to the season, though they showed some life this past Sunday in the process of sweeping an extremely important double header from Virginia Tech. Whether or not that was a sign of a team beginning to put it together remains to be seen; they have a pair of must-win series (at BC, at Duke) on the horizon that will tell us more. If they can take those two series, the schedule, back-loaded as it is, gives them an opportunity to make a late run at the NCAA tournament.

Let's take a look at some of the issues plaguing this year's Pack nine. First, offense:

        AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    ISO
2008   .299   .390   .458   .848   .159
2009   .268   .378   .402   .780   .134

State's hitting for less average and less power this season, which has led to a loss of nearly 70 points in OPS from '08 to '09. Avent is doing what he can to compensate for the power outage, namely running with much greater frequency. Last year's team attempted 78 steals in 64 games, while this year's already has 59 attempts in 27 games. Considering the Pack's excellent stolen base success rate (47-59, 79.7%), this is not a bad development.

The Wolfpack's batting average is down partly because they simply aren't putting the ball in play as often as they did last season. They've struck out on nearly 21% of their plate appearances in 2009, up from around 16% in 2008. That strikeout rate is the ACC's worst; however, State's walk rate has improved a bit thus far, and only Florida State has been better at drawing free passes. Still, since they aren't compensating with added power, the strikeouts are a definite problem.

They need to start generating more power in a hurry, because they're going to start running into pitchers that not only have better stuff but better command as well. Right now there aren't a lot of guys the opposition has to worry about challenging, which is not good news for a lineup that relies on the base on balls like this one does.

Pitching:

       HR/9IP  BB/9   K/9    K/BB   BABIP   RA/9 
2008    0.7    3.6    8.2    2.3    .298    4.4
2009    0.6    3.7    9.3    2.5    .334    5.9

As you can see from the peripherals (i.e., the things a pitcher can control; first four columns), the pitching hasn't really suffered despite the loss of rotation stalwarts like Clayton Shunick and Eric Surkamp.

His outing against VT last weekend aside, Jake Buchanan has done a fine job, as he's made marked improvements to both his strikeout rate and his K:BB ratio (which is an outstanding 4.2:1). Jimmy Gillheeney has made an effective transition from reliever to starter, giving the team a pretty solid 1-2. It gets shaky behind those two, and the bullpen has had its share of struggles, but the staff's overall performance looks fine to me.

The increase in runs allowed per nine innings from 4.4 to 5.9 seems to be more the result of opponents' higher batting average on balls in play (last year's staff was a bit lucky in this regard) and a more mistake-prone defense. Both factors are reflected in State's defensive efficiency (percentage of batted balls that are converted into outs), which is down significantly.

Virginia Pumps The Brakes

2009-03-30T18:40:00.002-04:00

As the Calipari/Kentucky saga continues (following those wild rumors on Twitter has been fun; and what's up with this?), Virginia has apparently decided to hire Tony Bennett from Washington State. UVA fans don't seem thrilled:

Judging by the reaction on TheSabre.com to the Bennett news, Athletic Director Craig Littlepage will need to work hard to hype up the hire.

“If this is true I am seriously thinking about getting rid of my season tickets,” wrote TheGreatHooFan.

“Face it, we will always be bush league,” lamented Kenny Saw.

If he brings his system with him, Virginia will be easily the league's most methodical team. In three seasons at WSU, Bennett's Cougars ranked 322nd, 335th, and 340th in adjusted tempo. They averaged an adjusted 58.7 possessions per 40 minutes in 2009. I suspect Littlepage has his work cut out for him with regards to the hype thing.

Seth Curry To Duke

2009-03-29T21:49:00.002-04:00

D'oh.

Seth Curry will sit out next season and have three seasons of eligibility remaining beginning in 2010-11, when the Blue Devils will need another scoring guard. Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer will be seniors next season.

Dell Curry, a former NBA sharpshooter, said "Coach K kept telling him the timing couldn't be better.''

See his stats here.

K And Roy The Guitar Heroes.

2009-03-29T20:50:00.000-04:00

Me: Oh, look, it's K ... and there's Roy. And oh god they aren't wearing pants!

Brain: Ooooh, yeah, sorry about that. I'm gonna need more lead time in the future if you want me to blind you temporarily.

Me: As killing brain cells has becoming something of a hobby of mine, I can't help but feel partially responsible.

Brain: We're good then?

Me: No, but you can make it up to me by coming up with a joke that's actually funny the next time I'm talking to a girl at a bar.

Grip it and rip it, baby.

2009-03-26T15:10:00.000-04:00

-- CBS's Dennis Dodd caught up with Harrison Beck, who is on his way to D-II North Alabama to play for Terry (and Jeff) Bowden:

"I'm as confident as ever. I don't care what some chemistry student on PackPride.com is going to say about me. People romanticize football. It has a bigger meaning to them than it actually is. I put in hard work and I'm dedicated to it. I'm not concerned with how other people (perceive me). I'm all about gripping and ripping it. I enjoy playing. I like playing the game. I don't care about statistics."

Gunslinger.

-- ESPN's story about the Krispy Kreme Challenge can be found here. Pretty good effort by Greg Garber considering he ran the thing in his suit.

-- Via Dr. Saturday comes news that David Cutcliffe is Twittering. I've learned that Duke competes to the max every day and also that Coach Cut likes exclamation points. Elsewhere, Pete Carroll is eschewing his coaching responsibilities in favor of a campaign to get Will Ferrell to join Twitter. Carroll tried to enlist Shaq's help earlier this afternoon. I freaking love the internet.

-- Sweet 16 viewer's guide. I think Duke's run ends tonight in what should be an entertaining game. Villanova has averaged 1.12 points per possession since February 1st, while Duke's D has been fading down the stretch.

The Third Annual S6 Awards

2009-03-25T16:09:00.006-04:00

There are a lot of great basketball players in the ACC, and as each season concludes they are properly recognized and rewarded. But why should those guys hog the attention and the hardware just because they have talent? Hardly seems fair.

The Ekene Ibekwe Award
For hideous shooting in conference play.

Nominees:

Bobby Frasor, UNC, 36.2 eFG%
Chris Singleton, FSU, 40.2 eFG%
Deon Thompson, UNC, 41.2 eFG%
Brian Zoubek, Duke, 43.9 eFG%

The Ibekwe goes to...

It's one thing if you take your fair share of attempts from 15 feet and out, as those are inherently lower percentage shots, but if you're strictly a low post scorer, like Thompson and Zoubek, your bricklaying is all the more appalling. And if you're Deon Thompson and you've got the ACC Player of the Year at the point, a fantastic outside shooter at the two, an outstanding, versatile scorer at the three, and an air- and attention-sucking All-American at the other forward spot... how does this happen?

The Quentin Thomas Award
For most turnover prone player in conference play.

Nominees:

Ryan Reid, FSU, 40.6 TO%
Tanner Smith, Clemson, 32.6 TO%
Iman Shumpert, GT, 30.6 TO%
Brandon Costner, NCSU, 24.7 TO%

The award goes to...

Guys playing off the ball generally have to work extra hard to turn it over a bunch, and Ryan Reid--who averaged 5.4 turnovers per 40 minutes despite being asked to do absolutely nothing except maybe like shoot if you happen to get the ball under the basket and there's no one within three feet of you--certainly did. He had a higher TO% than any point guard that met the minutes requirement, which the awards committee has to admit is pretty fucking awesome.

The Tunji Soroye Hole In The Lineup Award
For lowest possession usage in conference play.

Nominees:

Cortney Dunn, BC, used 4.5% of team's possessions
David McClure, Duke, used 7.2% of team's possessions
Bobby Frasor, UNC, used 10.1% of team's possessions
LD Williams, WF, used 13.4% of team's possessions

The Soroye goes to...

Cortney Dunn, whose usage is a mere quarter of an average player's workload. Dunn took 15 shots in 250 minutes of playing time, or 2.4 FGA per 40 minutes. That's some epic non-participation. Come on, you guys, just let me touch the ball this one time.

The Anthony Harris Award
For the overall most inefficient performance in conference play.

Nominees:

Ryan Reid, FSU, 73.2 O Rtg
Sammy Zeglinski, UVA, 74.4 O Rtg
Dino Gregory, UMD, 84.0 O Rtg
Iman Shumpert, GT, 84.2 O Rtg

The Harris goes to...

Ryan Reid, who almost single-handedly made Florida State impossible to take seriously. In addition to his previously noted turnover issues, he made less than 45% of his twos and barely half his free throws. Sometimes it all comes together.

The Impressively Short Tall Guy Award
For defensive rebounding like a girl in conference play.

Nominees:

Josh Southern (6-10), BC, 11.6 DR%
Zach Peacock (6-8), GT, 9.8 DR%
Brad Sheehan (6-11), GT, 13.2 DR%
Lance Thomas (6-8), Duke, 10.1 DR%
Brian Zoubek (7-1), Duke, 14.5 DR%

The award goes to...

This one fueled a lengthy debate within the awards committee, as all of the nominees rebound like players 5-6 inches shorter than they are. Ultimately, Brian Zoubek, the group's tallest, got the nod. Height isn't everything when you have a two inch vertical and are only capable of moving in super slo-mo. His development has been somewhat hampered by the fact that coaches cannot slow down his game film because it would take three hours to break down a single post move. But at least he's not breaking any nails out there; joke's on you, Mr. Hustle!

The Terrence Oglesby Award
For he who is without shame in conference play.

The Oglesby goes to...

Terrence Oglesby.

         %Shots
Oglesby   28.1
Booker    21.0

SERIOUSLY DUDE WHAT THE FUCK YOU HAVE TREVOR BOOKER ON YOUR TEAM. You deserve to be routinely pelted with the sharpest rocks that the state of South Carolina has to offer.

Closing The Book On Hoops

2009-03-24T14:26:00.003-04:00

                         In Conference Play
          Off_Eff        Def_Eff       Margin    ExpW-L
2005      112.0 (4)      110.5 (11)      +1.5      9-7
2006      110.2 (4)      107.3 (9)       +2.9      9-7
2007      101.1 (11)     111.4 (11)     -10.3      4-12
2008      100.9 (10)     114.1 (12)     -13.2      3-13
2009      105.1 (7)      110.9 (12)      -5.8      6-10

Offense: Lowe finally gets it to come together right before he has to start over.

(conf-only)

          eFG%        TO%        OR%         FTR        2FG%       3FG%      ShotDiff    Pts/ePoss
2007    53.1 (1)   22.5 (11)   26.2 (12)   34.7 (8)   51.9 (5)   37.0 (2)   -9.8 (12)     1.30 (7)
2008    52.2 (4)   23.8 (12)   29.7 (12)   39.7 (4)   48.4 (8)   39.7 (1)   -8.0 (12)     1.32 (6)
2009    53.4 (1)   22.3 (11)   31.8 (10)   35.4 (5)   51.0 (2)   38.7 (1)   -5.3 (12)     1.35 (5)

[ShotDiff = shot attempt differential. The difference, per game, in shot attempts by the Pack and the Pack's opponents, with free throws factored in. The negative number means opponents are getting more attempts at the hoop.

Pts/ePoss = Points per turnover-less possession. The term "effective possessions" (ePoss) is credited to John Gasaway.]

The Pack's good shooting and ability to get to the line carried over, they posted their lowest turnover rate since Lowe arrived, and they were better on the offensive glass than any NC State team in the last five years. It was an outstanding offense down the stretch despite one huge flaw (turnovers), and the ultimate result was the most efficient offense of the Lowe era--one that was actually better than league average (104.1).

This offense was good enough to get us to the NCAAs had we managed anything remotely close to league-average defense, which was apparent in all the games where we blew significant leads. The frequently-good-O, consistently-bad-D combo gave a lot of games a disorienting feel. (Edited to add correction: "consistently bad" is not an accurate description of the defense in light of this research I overlooked. "Terrifyingly bad second half defense" works fine instead.) The Pack would look like a 10-6 team for stretches, then have the offense give out and fail to compensate with stops, making them look like a 3-13 team.

For a lineup that will have a completely different feel in 2010, I see a couple of keys:

1.) Get the TO% under 20.0. There is going to be a significant adjustment period as guys who've either never played at the college level or aren't used to heavy minutes at the college level attempt to get comfortable with what's expected of them. It's likely that shooting and overall cohesiveness is going to be a problem for a while, which makes it extremely important that they give themselves as many effective possessions as possible.

2.) Clearly define roles sooner. Tracy Smith's insertion into the lineup was one reason why the offense became more efficient, but Lowe's transition to a tighter (generally 8-man) lineup shouldn't be overlooked either. I don't think it was a coincidence that when the role players found their minutes growing more consistent they started playing better. The sooner the coaches establish a set of expectations for the new contributors (before January would be preferable), the better off the team is going to be. Save the trial and error for pre-conference play. The production is going to be inconsistent, and that's okay, but I think the coaches need to do a better job of looking past small samples and staying focused on the long-term plan.

Defense: We are still left to beg.

(conf-only)

           eFG%        TO%         OR%        FTR        2FG%       3FG%
2007     51.2 (6)   17.1 (12)   39.3 (12)   30.1 (2)   49.4 (6)   37.5 (11)
2008     52.5 (11)  16.5 (11)   36.4 (10)   32.1 (2)   48.7 (6)   42.2 (12)
2009     51.6 (12)  17.1 (11)   35.7 (7)    31.3 (3)   50.9 (12)  35.7 (8)

If you're going to give your opponents a lot of first and second chances, you'd better be able to force them to miss a lot of shots. We've never been able to do that, so the crappy unit Lowe inherited from Sendek has remained crappy. In fact, if you looked at the defensive factors from both eras, it wouldn't be clear where one ended and the other began. We've had the same issues for the better part of a decade. While Lowe's offense shows obvious contrast, his fingerprints aren't as easy to find at the defensive end. That's partly a reflection of the Princeton-optimized personnel with which Lowe has had to work, but that doesn't give him a free pass for his inability to forge his own defensive identity.

I don't doubt that the team's shortcomings are clear to Lowe, so it's disappointing that we haven't been very effective at obscuring them. Shaping up the defense is the tougher of the two tasks, though, and I understand that. He may try to use the team's quicker, smaller lineups to more aggressively contest passes or press with greater frequency, but those things come with their own set of problems. For one, I think the press-heavy styles of the likes of Tennessee and Clemson are self-defeating in the long term.

What's bothersome as I look to next season and beyond is the 2FG% defense, which held together okay in Lowe's first two years but collapsed in 2009. That's much less likely to be a fluke than 3FG% defense, and this was Lowe's best defensive rebounding team, so we can't just chalk it up to opponents getting cheap looks off of boarded misses, because they got fewer of those, not more.

Does it hurt you? To love, I mean?

Yes it does, Bob Pollard. Yes it does.

This is all very confusing.

2009-03-23T17:02:00.005-04:00

I leave the continental US for a week and State wins three titles? Oh, and golfer Matt Hill kicks more ass? Perhaps if I go farther next time, like move to Australia permanently, Sid will turn into John Wooden. I'd be willing to take that one for the team.

Costner, Ferguson Say Goodbye; Josh Davis (?) Says Hello

2009-03-23T16:37:00.000-04:00

Trevor Ferguson has seen the writing on the wall and will look for an opportunity elsewhere, while Brandon Costner is almost certainly on the way out as well.

Josh Davis, a two-star guard/forward from Raleigh, emerged from nowhere to announce his commitment to NC State today. No idea what to make of that.

So, looking ahead:

PG: Gonzalez / Degand / Mays (SG?)
SG: Brown (PG?) / Wood / Williams
SF: Horner / Thomas / Davis
PF: Howell / K. Smith?
C: T. Smith

Yeah, I'd say that's a new look. It's hard to picture this group grabbing many defensive boards. The coaches aren't done, though, so I'm sure another big will join the team before next season. But no matter what, a complete overhaul of our defensive philosophy is in order. Gotta force more turnovers just to avoid epic defensive fail.

Welcome back, Steven!

2009-03-21T19:39:00.002-04:00

So thank you for letting me play on your blog for the past week. I'm sure your readers, while they stuck with me for the week, will be happy to see you, your statistical prowess, and your wit return to its rightful place here on this page.

Thanks to those who humored my attempts to provide some sort of insightful analysis to the season and postseason.

So I'll just close out with a final "BOOM, MOTHER*&^KERS!!!"

ACC offiically craps itself in front of the nation (UPDATED with Pack tidbits)

2009-03-21T00:19:00.007-04:00

BC gets exposed as a slow, unathletic team in a total dismantling at the hands of USC.

Wake gets absolutely humiliated... I mean, gets their pants pulled down and proven to be eunuchs... by Cleveland State, who dominates every facet of the game. How bad was it? Jeff Teague can't dribble the ball. No shit - he couldn't dribble under even token pressure. So yes, Dorothy, Cleveland State takes down what was at one point, in another time, in another galaxy, in another dimension, the #1 team in the land this season.

And FSU loses in overtime on a 3-point play with 2 seconds to go. They had a chance to win, but Douglas missed a 3 on their last possession that would've put them up 4. Instead, Wisconsin... YES, WISCONSIN.. takes down a team that just beat unc-ch a week ago.

Way to represent the league, ass-clowns.

***

I woke up to the realization that the way the first round scheduling worked, Day One and Day Two ended up being (1) ACC teams the Pack didn't beat this year, and (2) ACC teams the Pack DID beat this year.

Day 1 record (teams we didn't beat): 3-1
Day 2 record (teams we did): 0-3

And unless I'm mistaken, we only played one.... that's it? One other G/D team that's in the field of 65? Yep - and that team (Marquette) played on day one. And yep - they won, too.

So teams we played and didn't beat go 4-1. Teams that were inept enough to let us beat them go 0-3.

Don't tell the selection committee, but we may be a better predictor of who the top 65 should be than anything else. RPI? Sagarin? AP? ESPN? OOC SOS? Record in last 10 games? Screw all that... if a team sucks bad enough to let the Pack beat 'em, they stay home.

Seems fair to me.

***

Props to BJD at SFN who caught that it extends beyond the NCAA's. With Miami's loss last night, there are no teams still left in postseason play whom the Pack beat this year...

NCAA Day Two Open Post

2009-03-20T11:45:00.002-04:00

So this one will be a bit more limited than yesterday... games start in a few...

Of particular interest today are:

Tennessee-Oklahoma State in the early game... a toss-up if I've ever seen one. Tennessee has enough talent to be much better than they are, but they simply haven't gotten it done. Is the SEC really going to be gone this weekend? I think so.

Temple-Arizona State in the next set... even without HWSNBN on the sidelines, this one's a test of exactly how crappy the Pac-10 really was this year. An ASU win doesn't say the Pac-10 didn't suck... but a loss is a severe blow. They were the new golden children this year. I'm thinking they get through round one, simply based on superior talent.

Southern Cal-Boston College in the 7pm... again, the Pac-10 gets a test, and I think they fail this one. Unless BC pulls a Clemson (aka a random white kid goes all Private Pyle & loses his f'ing sensibilities), they win this game.

Wisconsin-Florida State in the late games... the ACC's chance to go 6-1 through the first round, and they should do so. I mean, if the Pac-10 sucks, the Big-10 spews violently. Wisconsin is a slow, unathletic team that FSU should take behind the woodshed tonight. For some reason, though, I fear a cold night from Douglas and a monumental struggle. Hope I'm wrong.

Open Thread/Comments for NCAA Day One

2009-03-19T14:07:00.010-04:00

I'll throw this out there in case anyone wants to brag about incredibly insightful picks, or whine about how their bracket's already blown.

I'm taking a pretty high amount of satisfaction out of Memphis trailing CS-Northridge in the second half. If that were to hold........
***
.... and within minutes of typing that, it goes from a 6-point deficit to a 10-point lead for Memphis. Oh, to see Calipari lose in the first round... ah well...
***
Three games down, and I'm 2-1 since Butler laid an egg against LSU. My twin 7-year-olds are 3-0 so far. Ah, the wisdom of NOT over-thinking...
***
Seven games down. As expected, top seeds roll, including Psycho "oh-my-god-he's-so-great-he-broke-another-record-today" T and the holes.

I'm 6-1... twins are now 7-0. We both took Mississippi State, which is the first game that should weed quite a few people down a bit. I just don't buy the Pac-10 or Big-10, and I picked for them to go down quickly...
***
Clemson looks horrid so far, trailing Michigan by 3 midway through the first half. They've missed their last 10 shots, half of which are piss-poor 3-point guns by Oglesby. I'm actually glad that kid doesn't play for us - he'd drive me f'ing crazy. I mean, he's ice-cold, and he's still firing contested 23-footers... wtf?
***
Oglesby gets tossed for throwing a weak elbow... awfully strong punishment for no contact... but the only chance Clemson had was to get him out of the game... he was shooting them out of it. 2 to go, Clemson down 6. Thanks for nothing, guys...
***
Clemson indeed goes down, playing an abysmal game and losing to a team that would've had a losing record in the ACC. Dook up big on Binghamton. And VCU's not helping me out so far... they look overmatched against UCLA. Thankfully, at least WKU's looking strong so far against Illinois.

More tomorrow...

By popular request... Tempo-free defensive stats by half

2009-03-17T21:11:00.006-04:00

As promised yesterday, I've taken a crack at estimating 1st half and 2nd half tempo-adjusted defensive efficiency for the Pack by game, and for the season as a whole. Note that I don't have possessions broken down by half (I assumed the pace was constant over the course of the game), so if the number of possessions was dramatically different from one half to the next, the below numbers will be off. (Halves at or below 0.8 are green, at or above 1.2 are red)

Opponent	1st half	2nd half
Clemson	0.74	1.21
FSU	1.05	1.29
Ga Tech	1.03	0.94
Duke	0.72	1.68
BC	1.31	1.16
Miami	0.80	1.44
unc-ch	1.20	1.40
VT	0.82	0.96
Wake	0.92	1.14
Ga Tech	0.88	0.85
unc-ch	1.13	1.45
UVa	0.88	1.16
Wake	1.22	1.19
UMd	1.07	1.16
BC	1.14	1.17
Miami	0.68	1.64
Overall	0.97	1.23

Particularly shocking are the Dook fiasco and the season-ending Miami debacle, a 1.64 points-per-possession raping that triggered this whole line of thinking and analysis... "Could they REALLY have been as shitty as I just imagined?". The numbers back up the fact that, yes, they were. And they were on a very regular basis, as highlighted by the red second-half pointsplosions that happened about half the time we took the court.

The thing is - it's not as if the team is INCAPABLE of playing good defense, as the first-half numbers show. They either were out of shape, stopped caring, or were too mentally fragile to handle the pressure when the game was on the line. This really seems fixable. If only we had someone who knew how to fix it.

Side note...
Quick quiz: How many times this season did the Pack force 20 or more turnovers in a game?
Answer: One... and they failed to force even ten in a game over the last four.

Fix it, Sid. Or hire someone who can.

Post-season look: 2nd-half Defense (UPDATED)

2009-03-16T22:13:00.003-04:00

Due to feedback from an oh-so-inquisitive reader, I've run the numbers on the first 18 minutes of the second half vs the last 2 minutes, to see if there's an anomaly due to a losing team (that would be us) fouling the other team & artificially inflating their second-half scoring.

Raw numbers first (on a points-per-minute basis):

First Half	1.65
Second Half	2.08
Second Half (1st 18)	1.99
Second Half (Last 2)	2.84

Even looking at all 16 games, the defense is worse in the second half, no matter how you look at it. But at first blush, the last two minutes are clearly abysmal, potentially driven by the fact that we... well... weren't good and were putting the other team on the line.

Problem is - when looking at the games where the last two minutes were exceptionally poor, more of them were Pack wins than losses. So I took out the games that the Pack won or blew a late lead in (meaning we weren't fouling). Below are the same numbers with those stats taken out:

First Half	1.64
Second Half	2.17
Second Half (1st 18)	2.10
Second Half (Last 2)	2.80

The numbers are startlingly similar and show the same basic pattern... given that we've taken out wins, you'd expect the "Last 2" number to get worse if free throws were really a significant factor. Instead, the last 2 minutes get marginally better.

Bottom line - we sucked defensively in all phases of the second half.... win or loss, first 18 minutes or last two... we just couldn't stop a soul. I mean, 2+ points a minute, with a 35-second shot clock, means we gave up somewhere near 2 points per possession. I'll try to get a tempo-adjusted number later in the week.

-- wolfonthehill

***

So I alluded to it a week ago in the Comments section of the Maryland postgame debacle... it seemed like yet another game where we were in decent shape until we chose not to give a damn about anything on the defensive end of the court in the second half. A cursory glance at that point showed that, sure enough, we'd laid our fair share of second-half defensive eggs in our losses this year. To take it a bit further now that the season's in the books, I've done the detailed numbers on all of the Big Four schools.

(And I apologize for the lack of pretty graphics - Steven didn't teach me that before he headed to Hawai'i.)

First off, if you look at all 64 games by the Big Four in conference play, the average defensive effort in wins held their opponents to 36 second-half points, while they laid down like schoolgirls and gave up 44 in the second half of their losses. I won't go into the statistical details to avoid outing myself as an uber-geek, but we'll just leave it at the p-value being 0.000, meaning an extremely high level of statistical correlation between second-half defense and the outcome of the game (W/L).

An arbitrary but severe case of a defensive meltdown is giving up 50 in a half. Between the four schools, there were 8 games where the defense coughed up 50 in the second half. (The Pack led the way with four of these, while unc-ch didn't give up that many a single time.) The teams' collective records in those 8 games? 1-7. The lone exception was Duke's effort against Wake in their re-match... in that one, Wake merely out-sucked Duke on the defensive end, giving up 50 or more in both the first AND the second half. So taking that game out, when one crappy defensive effort HAD to win, the Big Four went 0-6 in games where they gave up 50 or more in the second half. Unfortunately, the Pack accounted for 2/3 of those. And without those "I don't give a shit, and I have no pride" efforts, the Pack is .500 in the league.

So finally a rundown of the rest of the league, showing both league finish and second-half no-shows.

Team	ACC Finish	2nd Half Defensive Collapses
unc-ch	1	0
Wake	2	2 (0-2)
Duke	3	2 (1-1)
FSU	4	1 (0-1)
Clemson	5	1 (0-1)
BC	6	1 (0-1)
Maryland	7	1 (0-1)
Va Tech	8	0
Miami	9	1 (0-1)
NC State	10	4 (0-4)
UVa	11	0
Ga Tech	12	1 (0-1)

Quite honestly, I was expecting to see something resembling a correlation between league finish and defensive collapses... from the above, there's nothing of the sort. All you get is that (1) the Pack by FAR led the league in not-giving-a-shit in the second half of games, and (2) Duke's and Wake's efforts can honestly be seen as much as an absurd offensive pace as defensive lapses. That being said, the numbers show that no team wins if they can't get second-half stops... period.

The league as a whole? Teams went 1-13 in games where they gave up 50+... with that lone win being a game where the opponent gave up 50 in both halves... so excluding that outlier, it's an 0-12 mark. Not sure you're going to find many stats with a predictive value quite that high.

And yep - getting back to where it all started, the Pack accounted for 1/3 of those twelve, putting them near the bottom of the league instead of squarely in the thick of things in the middle... instead of potentially being a bubble team. I'm not sure if anything else is nearly that big a factor... and it all comes down to heart and effort.

That's Sid's problem to fix... either get your guys to give a damn, or find someone else who will.

Pack Season Mercifully Ends

2009-03-16T00:15:00.003-04:00

But hey - think of it this way - only 129 teams make one of the four postseason tournaments. Gunning to be in the top 129 is pretty lofty... baby steps, people. Baby steps.

Sorry we won't have the opportunity to liveblog one more time. Think about it...

No more "BOOM MOTHER&*^KERS!!!"

No more "Bourtney!!!"

No more encouraging one another to have another beer to make the pain a little easier to take.

And finally... No more talking ham.

Just when things were looking up, with the re-opening of CJ Leslie's recruitment...

ACC Championship: Dook 79, F$U 69

2009-03-15T14:59:00.005-04:00

Ridiculous first-half three-point shooting by the Devils, coupled with a Pack-esque cold streak by the Noles late in the first half and into the second half, determined the outcome of this one long before the final buzzer. But like most Dook games, they got VERY three-happy, refusing to do anything but stand outside and jack up jumpers... and when they stopped going down (no, Skeletor, your team won't hit 70% from out there for the game), FSU had a chance to cut into the lead. Fortunately for Dook, FSU's 2-for-20'something stretch kept it from mattering.

Dook finished the game with... let's see here, 1, 2, 3, 4... that's it? Four G/D turnovers? For an entire game??? And two of those were in garbage time when it no longer mattered. Couple that with pretty stout offensive rebounding, particularly in the first thirty minutes, and you get an old-fashioned ass-whipping. Don't let the final score fool you - it wasn't that close.

Dook
Four Factors
eFG%	51.7
Turnover Rate	6.4
Off Reb Rate	31.6
FTA/FGA	44.8

F$U
Four Factors
eFG%	56.1
Turnover Rate	20.0
Off Reb Rate	22.2
FTA/FGA	38.8

Toney Douglas had a pretty forgettable day, after starting off strong. He never seemed to be able to get into the flow of the offense, alternating between forcing bad shots and not getting touches on some possessions because, quite honestly, his teammates looked tired of watching him gun it up.

At the end of the day, the better team won. But if Dook goes into the NCAA's (as they normally do) thinking they're going to win a title by standing outside and firing 3's, they'll be out (as they normally are) by the second weekend.

Liveblog! ACC Championship

2009-03-15T10:35:00.001-04:00

Tyler's watching with an open mouth

On Vacation

2009-03-14T23:55:00.002-04:00

I've decided it's best to put some distance between myself and Wolfpack athletics for a while--about 5800 miles, give or take. I'm traveling tomorrow and will be gone until Monday the 23rd, but wolfonthehill will be holding down the fort in the meantime and recapping whatever post-season mischief the basketball team gets itself into.

The Pack's NIT hopes don't look so good, which means they're headed either to the CBI or that new College Insider tourney. Regardless of which of those two tournaments State ends up in, they'll be playing Tuesday or Wednesday.

HDNet will be televising some CBI games, so it's possible you can still catch the team on television one more time this season. (If you want to.) I plan to remain blissfully unaware of all of it.

When I get back I'll have one last look at the '09 season and some blog-related news.

I leave you with this from Furman Bisher.

Only at NC State.

2009-03-14T14:14:00.001-04:00

I uh... wow.

"As a whole we played well as a team," [Costner] said. "We've grown each game and gotten closer. The younger guys have really grown up and really learned how to play this game in the ACC.

"I consider it a success. You look at the win-loss column and what we just did here and you may not think so, but overall being a part of this team has been a great experience this year."

If this is the kind of thing that passes for leadership on this team, it's no wonder they've played with so little heart or effort over the last few weeks. Whatever you want to give is good enough, kids. How can someone on a team that finished 10th in its conference be in any way satisfied with that? You wouldn't even find this perspective coming from a nobody on a bullshit mid-major team. Although that's pretty much what State is, profile-wise, after being led for three years by this complacent, self-defeating mindset. You play for a program that's won two national titles, but never mind that. Your team went 16-14, which is not even good enough for the NIT, but never mind that. You had fun. Success!

I hope one day we have a group of guys who aren't just in this for the free lunches.

Maryland 74, NC State 69

2009-03-13T10:24:00.003-04:00

Box Score

NC State
Four Factors
eFG%	50.8
Turnover Rate	23.7
Off Reb Rate	54.5
FTA/FGA	18.6

Maryland
Four Factors
eFG%	55.7
Turnover Rate	13.5
Off Reb Rate	41.9
FTA/FGA	39.6

          Pts   Poss    Off_Eff   Def_Eff
UMD       74    59.1     125.2     116.8
NCSU      69    59.1     116.8     125.2

Maryland shot 66% and did not commit a turnover in the second half against more pathetic, lazy Wolfpack defense.

Area Man Is True Fan Of NC State

2009-03-12T10:46:00.002-04:00

-- Whichever W-S Journal staffer came up with this Onionesque headline deserves a high five. The article itself actually does read like something that might come from America's finest news source:

Priest said that he was drawn to cheer for N.C. State for two reasons — his interest in wolves and his natural affinity for the underdog.

I know where he stands on the live wolves issue.

-- State is going to mix in more zone defense against the Terps tonight:

As for N.C. State's game plan heading into tonight's game, forward Tracy Smith said the Wolfpack certainly would operate more out of zone defenses than they did the last time these two teams met. When asked what type of zone N.C. State planned to rely most heavily upon, Smith said a 3-2. He also offered that the Wolfpack plan to full-court press often and then fall back into the 3-2 zone.

I don't feel good about the decision to press, but if the Pack can do it effectively, they can mask some of the shortcomings in their halfcourt defense. Maybe the coaches decided it would be a good idea to try to force more turnovers.

-- NC State is 9-0 all-time against the 7-seed.

-- The N&O examined some ACC players' favorite moves, including that of Tracy Smith:

N.C. State coach Sidney Lowe loves to see his sophomore center establish position in this spot. Smith, who is 6 feet 8 and 240 pounds, has a strong lower body and excels at creating space by sticking his rear end into the gut of a post defender.

"Coach Lowe always tells me I have a big body, 'So use it,' " Smith said.

When Smith gets the ball, he usually glances back over his left shoulder to see if there's a second defender double-teaming on the play. If not, he will take one power dribble and elevate for a right-handed jump hook that's difficult to block because Smith is strong and shields the shot with his body.

When a defender shades toward the middle to prevent the jump hook, Smith sometimes spins back left for a drop step, power dribble and layup.

The article notes that Smith is going to work on a high-post jumper during the off-season. If he succeeds in developing that, there will be nothing to stop him.

-- James is liveblogging the afternoon games at YANCSSB.

Live Wolves

2009-03-11T15:55:00.002-04:00

Since this is a popular recurring joke among Wolfpack fans on message boards and elsewhere, I'm gonna assume he's kidding. But it is the Technician...

I know what we need to get over the hump in football next season – a pack of live wolves. Yes, real, snarling, growling, live wolves held on leashes by some poor intern working for the Athletic Department or maybe an actual trained handler through the Vet school. How intimidating would it be to place a handful of wolves behind the visiting team’s end zone during the game and have a player hold the leash for one of the wolves as they run out onto the field!?

Better than a handful of wolves: two handfuls of wolves pulling a sled on which the coaching staff enters the field. That would be so bad ass it would be worth at least two touchdowns. Three touchdowns if an opposing player gets too close and loses a limb.

Never tell me the odds!

2009-03-11T15:38:00.001-04:00

Once again, Ken Pomeroy's log5 analysis of the conference tournaments is available.

What the heck is a "log5"? Start here. Basically, all the figures listed below indicate a team's probability of getting to a particular round of their conference tournament, with the rightmost column showing that team's chances of winning it all. These probabilities are based on the adjusted Pythagorean winning percentages that Ken tallies up for all D-I teams, percentages that are always similar, but never identical, to the tempo-free numbers that I track. Where there's an interesting discrepancy I'll try to point it out, knowing full well that Ken's not here to defend himself, so what I say goes.

Bear in mind these are mere probabilities, not destiny. DePaul had just a 13 percent chance of beating Cincinnati yesterday. In what by my lights was a rather rude display of disinterest in things tempo-free, the Blue Demons won anyway.

NC State is given a 45.8% chance of reaching Friday, a 9.4% chance of reaching Saturday, a 1.7% chance of reaching the finals, and a 0.3% of winning the whole thing.

So the Maryland game is a toss up (the Predict-O-Meter, which says the Pack is one point better than the Terps on a neutral floor, agrees), but after that the odds get long in a hurry. Still, these are the best odds State's gotten in the Lowe era:

2007: 10.0 / 2.7 / 0.5 / 0.0
2008: 26.9 / 7.2 / 0.8 / 0.09

I'm uncomfortable with this thought as it runs contrary to my default pessimism, but I haven't been able to shake it: if we match Maryland's energy level, I think we cruise to victory. Everything about Maryland's win in Raleigh felt like a fluke to me (this could be the bitterness talking). Vasquez is more than capable of blowing up against our back court one more time (we are very accommodating, after all), but if he doesn't, I don't think the rest of the team can pick up the slack.

Final In-Conference Individual Numbers

2009-03-10T14:07:00.001-04:00

            %Min    ORtg    %Poss    %Shots    eFG%    OR%    DR%    Ast%    TO%    FTRate
Costner     72.7    95.5     23.2     24.0     50.3    4.5   15.1    12.8    24.7    32.0
Fells       70.5   104.9     18.7     23.5     53.1    1.9   10.7     9.8    18.1    17.9
T. Smith    55.6   112.2     23.8     25.5     55.6   14.3   14.2     4.7    12.1    55.6
McCauley    76.9   110.8     20.1     19.1     47.3   10.3   18.4    15.3    17.2    52.7
Gonzalez    37.6   101.3     24.1     19.5     67.2    2.6    6.2    26.9    36.2    31.3
Horner      50.1   121.6     15.1     17.6     57.1    3.1   11.8     9.6    12.9    39.0
Degand      46.9    86.0     19.6     15.3     50.8    0.4    6.5    26.3    36.7    28.6
Williams    33.0   110.0     13.5     16.3     60.6    1.2    7.1     6.3    19.9    23.4

            Pts/40    Rebs/40    Asts/40    TOs/40    Fouls/40    FGA/40    
Costner     16.0       6.6         2.7        3.9       4.3        12.9
Fells       15.2       4.2         2.1        2.3       2.5        12.6
T. Smith    19.6       9.3         1.0        2.0       3.4        13.6
McCauley    13.9       9.5         3.3        2.4       2.5        10.2
Gonzalez    16.4       2.9         6.2        6.0       4.2        10.4
Horner      13.7       5.0         2.2        1.3       3.9         9.4
Degand       9.8       2.3         6.1        5.0       4.0         8.2
Williams    12.0       2.8         1.5        1.9       3.5         8.7

Looking at a few individuals:

Horner   %Min    ORtg    %Poss    %Shots    eFG%    2FG%    3FG%    TO%    Pts/40
2007     39.2   112.4      9.9     11.2     66.7    56.3    50.0   24.2     8.4
2008     28.2    80.4     15.3     16.4     40.8    34.8    33.3   23.2     8.4
2009     50.1   121.6     15.1     17.6     57.1    54.1    40.0   12.9    13.7

The Flame bounced back nicely from a disastrous 2008 to put together his finest season at NC State. In addition to re-discovering his shooting touch, he put a huge dent in his turnover percentage and improved his rebounding considerably (didn't put that in the table). A reliable but very sporadic contributor as a freshman in '07, he became a bigger and more consistent part of the offense this season. That he was able to provide such efficient scoring with the highest workload of his career is encouraging.

Whether or not he should have a bigger workload is debatable. Considering his somewhat limited skill set, one that makes him a guy who usually relies on teammates to create scoring opportunities for him, I think his current usage is pretty optimal. He just doesn't strike me as a guy who can handle an above-average amount of work. It'll be interesting to see how much he's asked to do in 2010.

Gonzalez %Min    ORtg    %Poss    %Shots    eFG%    Ast%    TO%    Pts/40    Asts/40
2008     60.5    93.2     16.8     15.1     51.3    24.4    31.4     8.9      5.2
2009     37.6   101.3     24.1     19.5     67.2    26.9    36.2    16.4      6.2

Give Javi a lot of credit for working hard and sticking with it even when he wasn't seeing any playing time. His turnaround this season has been astounding. If he could find a way to bring his turnover rate down to a more acceptable level (25% or so), he'd really be on to something.

Macrowave  %Min    ORtg    %Poss    %Shots    eFG%    2FG%    TO%     OR%    DR%    FTR    Pts/40    Rebs/40
2008       19.8   120.1     19.3     20.8     58.8    58.8    14.3    7.1    15.6   64.7    18.1       7.5
2009       55.6   112.2     23.8     25.5     55.6    55.6    12.1   14.3    14.2   55.6    19.6       9.3

It turns out the signs were there last season, albeit in a very small slice of action. The importance of his emergence as a heavy-but-efficient contributor can't be understated. Sidney Lowe desperately needed to find some sort of foundation for next season, and fortunately, he did. It's just too bad it didn't happen sooner. 2010: the Year of the Macrowave.

Fells Likely To Play Thursday

2009-03-09T16:52:00.002-04:00

So says Lowe:

"The rest that he received from the Miami game and obviously yesterday, and we'll see what he can do today in practice," N.C. State coach Sidney Lowe said Monday morning during the ACC coaches' teleconference.

"But I anticipate him being ready to play. If he’s 100 percent, I don’t know, but he’ll definitely play."

Yay?

Also: the all-conference teams have been announced. Can't really quibble with the first team, though I tried. Alas, the tempo-free stats do not support a post that condescendingly scolds the ACC media for omitting a certain player.

Tourney Time

2009-03-09T11:45:00.000-04:00

ACC Tournament Central

I plugged in-conference efficiency numbers for each team into the Predict-O-Meter and got these results:

Thursday
(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Miami, Noon [Miami by 2]
(5) Clemson vs. (12) Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m. [Clemson by 13]
(7) Maryland vs. (10) NC State, 7:00 p.m. [NC State by 1]
(6) Boston College vs. (11) Virginia, 9:30 p.m. [BC by 5]

Friday
(1) North Carolina vs. (9) Miami, Noon [UNC by 11]
(4) Florida State vs. (5) Clemson, 2:30 p.m. [Clemson by 3]
(2) Wake Forest vs. (10) NC State, 7:00 p.m. [Wake by 8]
(3) Duke vs. (6) Boston College, 9:30 p.m. [Duke by 8]

Saturday
(1) North Carolina vs. (5) Clemson, 1:30 p.m. [UNC by 5]
(2) Wake Forest vs. (3) Duke, 4:00 p.m. [Duke by 3]

Sunday
(1) North Carolina vs. (3) Duke, 1:00 p.m. [UNC by 4]

Miami 72, NC State 64

2009-03-07T19:49:00.001-05:00

Braxton Albritton is Javier Gonzalez in A Dribble To No End.

NC State
Four Factors
eFG%	45.9
Turnover Rate	24.0
Off Reb Rate	35.5
FTA/FGA	42.9

Miami
Four Factors
eFG%	42.0
Turnover Rate	8.0
Off Reb Rate	37.5
FTA/FGA	60.7

          Pts   Poss    Off_Eff   Def_Eff
Miami     64    62.6     115.1     102.3
NCSU      72    62.6     102.3     115.1

After Dennis Horner hit a jump shot with 13:22 left in the second half, State missed 12 consecutive shots and generally stood idly by as Miami went on a 27-11 run over the next 12 minutes to seal the deal. That drought, a -10 turnover margin, and more uneven officiating--including another bizarre intentional foul call--proved far too much for the Wolfpack to overcome. So it was an altogether unpleasant afternoon, highlighted only by Tim Brandt's impeccable comedic timing.

Liveblog! NC State @ Miami

2009-03-07T11:58:00.001-05:00

NCSU @ Miami

I suppose that would help...

2009-03-05T14:18:00.002-05:00

From today's chat with Basketball Prospectus's John Gasaway:

Tracy Smith (Raleigh, NC): John, it took a while for Sidney Lowe to realize he needed me in the starting lineup, but in the ten conference games NC State has played since I became a starter, the Pack has averaged 1.1 pts per trip. I think we might be the best candidate among major-conference teams to pull a Georgia '08--win the conference tourney and steal an NCAA bid from a bubble team. What do you say?
John Gasaway: I say that over those same ten games you've allowed 1.12. Play some D! Then let's talk about pulling a Georgia.

Baseball Wins Longest Game In School History, Sets NCAA Strikeout Record

2009-03-05T12:31:00.004-05:00

Epic.

Eleven NC State pitchers, two shy of the NCAA record for a single game, combined to strike out 31 Zips batters, setting a new NCAA Division I mark and easily eclipsing the old record of 26, set by Murray State on April 12, 1987, vs. Austin Peay. That game was a 15-inning affair. Akron used five pitchers in the game, and they combined to fan 20 Wolfpack hitters, and the 51 strikeouts for the two teams combined also is an NCAA Division I record.

NC State won the game when Kyle Wilson drew a one-out walk in the top of the 18th, stole second, stole third and came home when the catcher’s throw skipped off the third baseman’s glove and into foul territory down the left-field line.

The Pack used 15 position players in addition to the 11 pitchers. Eight Zips struck out at least three times en route to the record book.

NC State 74, BC 69

2009-03-05T11:04:00.000-05:00

Box Score

NC State
Four Factors
eFG%	60.8
Turnover Rate	15.1
Off Reb Rate	35.7
FTA/FGA	39.2

Boston College
Four Factors
eFG%	55.8
Turnover Rate	15.1
Off Reb Rate	28.6
FTA/FGA	26.9

          Pts   Poss    Off_Eff   Def_Eff
BC        69    59.6     115.8     124.2
NCSU      74    59.6     124.2     115.8

This one went about how you'd expect a game between the ACC's two worst defenses to go; both teams played solid defense for stretches but generally didn't do a whole lot to discourage scoring. Boston College came out smoking, executed the offense perfectly, and took advantage of a bunch of open looks to hit their first eight attempts from the field. The Wolfpack managed to survive the early barrage and fought back to tie the game at 20 with about 12 minutes left in the first half. From there, they took control and built a nine-point halftime lead.

The second was mostly back and forth, though State was able to create a bit of separation thanks to a couple of key late plays by Javi Gonzalez--he nailed a tough layup and grabbed a miraculous offensive rebound a couple of possessions later that resulted in a Dennis Horner three and an eight-point lead with 2+ minutes to go.

Of course, the game couldn't possibly end in comfortable fashion; that simply wouldn't be proper. Rakim Sanders starred as this game's Random Player Who Gets Stupid-Hot All The Sudden, nailing three triples in the last few minutes. The Pack added more shaky late-game free throw shooting to increase their degree of difficulty.

But they did enough to hang on. Ben McCauley, who was more involved at the offensive end than he had been in some time, was outstanding in his final home game. McCauley finished with 20 points on 7-for-12 shooting, and fittingly, iced the game with a couple of free throws.

Javi did a little bit of everything: 5 points, 5 boards, 6 assists (against 1 turnover), and he helped limit Tyrese Rice's impact.

After allowing Boston College to grab 60% of its misses in the first meeting, the Pack limited them to less than 30% of the offensive boards last night, which was a huge factor in the win. They also kept the self-inflicted mistakes to a minimum--against a team that doesn't force turnovers, that's really all you need to do to ensure a low TO%. It was just the second time in conference play that State finished even or better in both the turnover and rebounding categories.

[Photo: AP]

BC Liveblog - Part Deux!

2009-03-04T18:48:00.000-05:00

Senior Night '09... A Blessing in Disguise?

"I'm not going down without a fight."

2009-03-04T15:44:00.004-05:00

Motivation won't be a problem for Ben McCauley:

"Desperate times call for desperate measures, and we have to do whatever we can to make a little run here and finish strong,'' he said. ``It's my last two regular-season games of my career. I'm not going down without a fight and I'm going to make sure all my teammates know that.

"You have to take initiative, tell guys to be on their game and if they're not ready to play, get the heck out and get someone in there that can play. That's, I think, the mentality we have to take from here on out.''

But the other guys? McCauley tried to get them going in the first half of the Maryland game and it didn't work. It's difficult to hear anything when you're on another planet. It's just a matter of logistics, as this handy diagram explains:

Senior Day

2009-03-04T11:24:00.000-05:00

Let's go to the youtubes...

Redamndunkulous.

Liveblog on for BC Wednesday

2009-03-03T21:23:00.003-05:00

Barring unforeseen difficulties either with finding an establishment that dishes out good money for the U or with getting the Liveblog doohickey to work, we'll be letting the F-bombs roll at 7 sharp tomorrow night. Yours truly will be hosting, filling in for Steven... so don't hold him responsible for any angry rants or non-tempo-adjusted statistics.

Keep me company, fellas...

Noting BC

2009-03-03T13:32:00.000-05:00

Maybe we should be thanking Boston College for pounding the living crap out of us in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles grabbed just about every shot they missed in the first half of that game, creating the kind of desperate situation that made the nuclear option appear not only viable but also necessary. So Sidney Lowe countered with a Costner-McCauley-Smith lineup in the second half in the hopes that it would stop the bleeding. After BC pushed its lead to 19 in the half's early stages, State's big lineup led the team on a 16-0 run and made the game competitive for the first time all afternoon. The Pack hung around down the stretch, but as is often the case, never could get over the hump.

Nevertheless, it was an a-ha moment for Lowe, and that lineup has been the team's staple ever since.

A glance at the Boston College offense and defense in conference play:

Off_Eff (Rk)   eFG% (Rk)   TO% (Rk)     OR% (Rk)     FTR (Rk)
108.9 (2)      49.8 (6)    20.4 (5)     41.1 (2)     35.2 (6)

Def_Eff (Rk)   eFG% (Rk)   TO% (Rk)     OR% (Rk)     FTR (Rk)
110.9 (12)     48.6 (5)    17.6 (12)    42.4 (12)    38.5 (9)

It's not a great shooting team, but they have the luxury of a lot of second chances, and they do a reasonable job of protecting the ball and getting to the line.

At the defensive end, their problems mirror ours, except theirs are more pronounced, if that's possible. I don't think I've ever seen a more extreme difference in a team's rebounding from one end of the floor to the other. They rank in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and in the bottom 30 in defensive rebounding percentage. They've allowed ACC opponents to grab 40% or more of their misses in eight of 14 games and so have been pretty much mauled on a regular basis (notable exception: NC State, which grabbed just 30% of its misses in the first meeting).

Outside of Joe Trapani, not a single Eagle has a defensive rebounding percentage that even approaches respectable. Often you'll hear that such-and-such is this height, but he plays much taller. Well, Josh Southern is 6-10, and he plays much shorter. His 9.9 DR% in conference play is lower than that of guards Tyrese Rice and Reggie Jackson. And clearly, if there's one team that needs its 6-10 guy to play like he's 6-10 (or at least 6-5; jesus, man), it's Boston College.

Maryland 71, NC State 60

2009-03-02T13:18:00.001-05:00

Box Score

NC State
Four Factors
eFG%	55.4
Turnover Rate	25.3
Off Reb Rate	23.1
FTA/FGA	30.4

Maryland
Four Factors
eFG%	57.1
Turnover Rate	12.7
Off Reb Rate	13.3
FTA/FGA	14.3

          Pts   Poss    Off_Eff   Def_Eff
UMD       71    63.2     112.3      94.9
NCSU      60    63.2      94.9     112.3

Sidney Lowe seemed just as frustrated and perplexed by what he saw last night as anyone else:

“For some reason our perimeter people were very tentative making passes and a little slow on some cuts. We allowed [the zone] to be effective.”

“We had some really bad turnovers that I can't even explain. Just bad decisions – jumping into the air to make a pass, stuff like that.”

“I'm frustrated because I'm more surprised that we did that. Like I said I've been disappointed in games or upset that we lost games but not upset at our players how they've played. But today I'm just frustrated because I don't know where this came from.”

"We allowed [the zone] to be effective" says everything about the Pack's effort. I didn't get the feeling watching the game that the guys were confused so much as they didn't care to try. They settled for too many jumpers, never looked comfortable, and worse, never asserted themselves. At the defensive end, I'm not sure they contested a jump shot all night. Maryland dictated everything.

Almost 40% of State's attempts were threes, and against a team with a small front line, that's unacceptable. Their lack of interest probably deprived them of as many points in the paint as the zone defense did. Lowe said this when asked about getting the ball inside:

“To me it didn’t look difficult. We had our tall guys on the perimeter. We didn’t make the pass inside. We were too tentative for some reason. We broke down.”

Ben:

"This is very, very disappointing, this was such a big game," lamented McCauley. "We were lackadaisical in the first half and they jumped on us. We were lackadaisical at the start of the second half and they jumped us. We didn't have the feel of a team. Some people's minds were in a different place."

A losing record in conference play is assured, the last remnants of our NCAA tournament hopes are dashed, and there are two games left. What now, I wonder.

[Photo: AP]

Liveblog! Maryland @ NC State

2009-03-01T19:28:00.001-05:00

Maryland @ NC State

Previewing Maryland

2009-02-28T17:36:00.001-05:00

2009 Scouting Report/Schedule
2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats
2009 Roster

Maryland Offense 07-08
Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	50.9	131
Turnover Rate	23.3	291
Off Reb Rate	34.5	105
FTA/FGA	37.5	139

Maryland Offense 08-09
Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	46.4	269
Turnover Rate	18.1	39
Off Reb Rate	34.6	105
FTA/FGA	29.3	324

(Two conference foes don't meet for the first time until March. I hate what expansion has done to the basketball schedules.)

The Terps' shooting, and more specifically, their two-point shooting, has fallen off a cliff in 2009. Their 52.1 2FG% in conference play led the league in 2008, but they've slipped all the way to 10th this season, ahead of fellow incompetents Virginia and Georgia Tech.

They have not been able to effectively replace the production they got from James Gist and Bambale Osby, a pair of highly-involved 50+ percent shooters inside a year ago. Making matters worse, the offense's unquestioned leader, and a guy who'd been a reliable scorer inside the arc, has seen his 2FG% regress significantly. Lose two steady post players and couple that with Greivis Vasquez's poor timing and this is the result. Landon Milbourne and Adrian Bowie are the only two Terps hitting more than half of their twos in conference play, but they aren't big enough parts of the offense to make much of a difference.

If there is a positive to come out of the departures of those big men, it's that Maryland dispensed with a pair of turnover-prone players. And among the returning contributors, Vasquez, Milbourne, Hayes, and Bowie have significantly cut down on turnovers, making for dramatic improvement in this area for the team as a whole. That's helped them stave off complete disaster, but just barely.

Starters:

Greivis Vasquez (6-6, 190) -- His unfortunate 43.7 effective field goal percentage in conference play makes him one of the most ineffiecient primary scoring options in the ACC.

        In Conference Play
...   %Shots   2FG%     3FG%
2007   18.6    47.3     33.3
2008   27.8    54.9     27.0
2009   26.7    42.5     30.4

Being the modest-baseline-shooting-talent, high usage player that he is, Vasquez is a huge wild card from game to game. He's just as capable of scuttling the offense (see 5-21 performance in loss to Morgan State) as he is of carrying it (see win over UNC).

Adrian Bowie (6-2, 190) -- He's not much of an three-point shooter, so he prefers to do most of his scoring inside the arc. Doesn't make too many mistakes and has a decent assist rate.

Sean Mosley (6-4, 210) -- Shooting has been a struggle (I sense a theme), but he is one of the few Terps that's been able to get to the free throw line with some frequency.

Landon Milbourne (6-7, 207) -- Averages a half a point less than Vasquez per 40 minutes despite taking 12.5 FGAs/40 to Vasquez's 16.4. He's hit a team-high 53.2% of his twos in conference play. Underutilized, I'd say. Good offensive rebounder as well.

Dave Neal (6-7, 263) -- Continuing a fine tradition started by Will Bowers, Neal looks nothing like a basketball player. It's amazing to me that someone with so little in the way of discernible basketball skills could get 25 minutes a night on a team that could reach the NCAAs. His stats certainly don't help his image, though he's good for a bonecrushing screen or two.

Bench:

Eric Hayes (6-4, 184), Cliff Tucker (6-6, 190), Dino Gregory (6-7, 227). Gregory should not be much of a factor offensively, while Hayes and Tucker are just as likely to shoot when they're on the floor as any of the other role players. Hayes is 22-55 (40%) from outside in ACC games.

Maryland Defense 07-08
Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	44.4	12
Turnover Rate	19.4	252
Off Reb Rate	34.1	231
FTA/FGA	30.9	58

Maryland Defense 08-09
Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	48.0	120
Turnover Rate	22.3	70
Off Reb Rate	35.8	284
FTA/FGA	29.3	34

They do a pretty good job of forcing turnovers and keeping opponents off the line, but their eFG% D, 3FG% D, and defensive rebounding--which rank 12th, 12th, and 10th in the ACC, respectively--are glaring deficiencies.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes State by four.

Wake Forest 85, NC State 78

2009-02-27T10:58:00.000-05:00

Box Score (pdf)

NC State
Four Factors
eFG%	53.8
Turnover Rate	11.3
Off Reb Rate	19.4
FTA/FGA	16.9

Wake Forest
Four Factors
eFG%	54.9
Turnover Rate	16.9
Off Reb Rate	39.4
FTA/FGA	36.1

          Pts   Poss    Off_Eff   Def_Eff
WFU       85    70.8     120.0     110.1
NCSU      78    70.8     110.1     120.0

State made Jeff Teague a non-factor at the offensive end again, and both LD Williams and Al-Farouq Aminu were invisible as well, but James Johnson was unstoppable, Chas McFarland rebounded from some poor play of late to turn in a nice performance, and Ish Smith ... good lord.

It's always frustrating when the opportunity to win is there and the Pack can't take advantage of it, and the possessions that the Wolfpack botched in key moments during the latter stages of both halves certainly hurt. But the fact that they had those opportunities at all after falling behind 15 points on the road against a good team playing well is another small sign of progress. I really didn't expect us to get back into it.

The next step: develop secret defensive potion/look into voodoo/hire witch doctor. The surest sign that Wake Forest is out of its comfort zone is when it's firing up a bunch of threes. Only about 20% of their FGAs have been threes this season, and that's how their shot selection broke down last night. State never could make Wake think twice about going into the paint, and the Deacs played to their strength all night.

[Photo: Getty]